How to Make Good Decisions | Shane Parrish
Shane Parrish, author of "Clear Thinking," discusses how to make better decisions by understanding the "enemies of clear thinking" (emotional, ego, social, inertia defaults). He outlines strategies like positioning oneself for success, creating automatic rules, and a five-step decision-making process, emphasizing the importance of knowing what is truly worth wanting.
Deep Dive Analysis
12 Topic Outline
Shane Parrish's Background and Career Transition
The Biological Basis and Defaults that Derail Clear Thinking
Understanding the Four Defaults: Emotional, Ego, Social, and Inertia
The Power of Positioning in Decision-Making
Safeguards and Artificial Environment Constraints for Better Decisions
Creating Automatic Rules for Success to Circumvent Defaults
Dan and Shane's Personal Automatic Rules and Practices
The Importance of Curating Your Inputs and Information Consumption
Shane's Five-Step Decision-Making Process
Distinguishing Between One-Way and Two-Way Door Decisions
Knowing What is Worth Wanting: The Ultimate Decision-Making Challenge
Leveraging Future Hindsight and Personal Board of Directors
5 Key Concepts
Defaults of Clear Thinking
These are situations that prime us not to think, acting as enemies of clear thinking. They include being emotional, driven by ego, influenced by social pressure, or succumbing to inertia, causing us to react instinctively rather than pausing to reason and make a conscious choice.
Positioning
This refers to the actions and preparations taken *before* a decision moment that place an individual or organization in an advantageous state. Good positioning, like getting enough sleep or saving money, puts you on 'easy mode' to manage defaults and make better choices, while poor positioning forces you onto 'hard mode'.
Automatic Rules for Success
These are pre-established personal rules or guidelines designed to circumvent the brain's natural wiring towards defaults. By creating and consistently following these rules, individuals can avoid relying on willpower in the moment and instead automate behaviors that align with their long-term goals.
One-Way vs. Two-Way Doors
A mental model for categorizing decisions based on reversibility. One-way doors are decisions that are hard or impossible to reverse, requiring a slower, more methodical process. Two-way doors are easily reversible, allowing for quicker decisions and delegation to foster judgment development.
Knowing What is Worth Wanting
This is the often-overlooked final part of decision-making, which involves consciously defining what truly matters to you, rather than pursuing goals based on external scoreboards or societal expectations. It encourages aligning one's actions and priorities with a deeply considered vision of a meaningful life.
6 Questions Answered
The enemies of clear thinking are situations that prime us not to think, categorized as defaults: emotional (e.g., hungry, angry, lonely, tired), ego-driven (e.g., needing to be right), social (e.g., groupthink, desire to fit in), and inertia (e.g., continuing old habits).
Positioning refers to the preparatory actions that put you in an advantageous state before a decision. Being well-positioned (e.g., well-rested, financially secure) makes it easier to manage defaults and make good choices, while poor positioning forces you to operate on 'hard mode'.
Automatic rules are pre-defined behaviors that circumvent in-the-moment willpower and negotiation. By establishing clear rules (e.g., 'I don't say yes on the phone,' 'I work out every day'), you create a new default that guides your actions without conscious effort.
Decisions often imply a more deliberate, multi-step process, especially for 'one-way door' situations with high stakes. Choices, on the other hand, are often made quickly for 'two-way door' situations where the cost of failure is low, not requiring extensive evaluation.
To determine what is worth wanting, one should avoid playing by others' scoreboards and instead consciously define what truly matters. A powerful thought experiment involves envisioning one's deathbed and reflecting on what one would want loved ones to say about their life.
Blind spots, the source of many bad decisions, can be reduced by taking different perspectives. This can be achieved by seeking unique insights from others, or by mentally stepping into the shoes of a 'personal board of directors' (role models) to view the problem through their eyes.
23 Actionable Insights
1. Define Your Life’s Scoreboard
Consciously decide what truly matters to you and pursue those goals, rather than adopting external measures of success. This prevents achieving goals that ultimately prove unfulfilling, as seen in examples like Ebenezer Scrooge.
2. Create Automatic Rules for Success
Develop individual, non-negotiable “automatic rules” for desired behaviors, like working out daily or setting meeting boundaries. These rules create a new default, circumventing willpower battles and making desired actions automatic.
3. Position for “Easy Mode” Decisions
Proactively manage factors like sleep, nutrition, and preparation to optimize your state for clear thinking. This puts you on “easy mode” to manage emotional and ego-driven defaults, making better decisions effortless.
4. Practice Conscious Pausing
Cultivate the ability to pause between a stimulus and your response, allowing time to think, reason, and choose a different path than an instinctive reaction. This enables you to assess the situation and avoid impulsive, unhelpful actions.
5. Shift Ego from Right to Outcome
Consciously change your ego’s focus from needing to be “right” to prioritizing the best possible outcome in any situation. This shift helps overcome blind spots and improves collaboration by valuing the most effective solution.
6. Conduct Quarterly Input Audits
Schedule a quarterly two-hour meeting with yourself to review your social circles and information consumption (online/offline). This practice ensures you’re consciously curating positive, smart influences and avoiding negative inputs.
7. Utilize a Personal Board of Directors
Enlist a “personal board of directors” of heroes or role models who embody desired traits or mindsets. Mentally consult them (e.g., “What would X do?”) to gain diverse perspectives and reduce blind spots when facing problems.
8. Differentiate Decision Types (One-Way/Two-Way)
Categorize decisions as “one-way doors” (hard to reverse) or “two-way doors” (easy to reverse) and apply different processes. Make two-way decisions quickly, and approach one-way decisions slowly and methodically.
9. Design Decision Processes Proactively
Design your decision-making processes (e.g., for one-way/two-way doors) before a decision arises. This avoids relying on willpower or memory in the moment, ensuring a consistent and effective approach.
10. Employ the ASAP/ALAP Decision Strategy
For low-stakes, easily reversible decisions, make them “As Soon As Possible” (ASAP). For high-stakes, irreversible decisions, wait “As Late As Possible” (ALAP) to gather maximum information.
11. Use “Stop, Flop, or Know” for ALAP
For “As Late As Possible” decisions, make the judgment when you “Stop” gathering useful new information, face a “Flop” (first lost opportunity), or “Know” the right path due to unique insight. This prevents endless deliberation.
12. Visualize Your Deathbed Perspective
Engage in a thought experiment by visualizing your deathbed and what you want people to say about you. This allows you to turn future hindsight into current foresight, aligning your present choices with your desired legacy.
13. Audit Calendar for Priorities Alignment
Regularly audit your calendar and commitments to ensure they align with your stated priorities, reflecting where your time, energy, and focus truly go. This helps identify discrepancies between your declared values and actual actions.
14. Define the Problem Yourself
When you are responsible for a decision, take ownership of defining the problem yourself, rather than accepting a definition from others. This ensures accountability and that you are solving the correct issue.
15. Break Meetings for Problem Solving
Split problem-solving meetings into two separate sessions (e.g., 30 minutes each, 1-2 days apart). The first gathers input on the problem, and the second allows the decision-maker to define it and then brainstorm solutions, reducing blind spots.
16. Ask for Unique Insights in Meetings
In meetings, prompt participants with “What do you see about this problem that nobody else sees?” to elicit unique perspectives and uncover blind spots. This encourages deeper, more diverse contributions.
17. Push for Multiple Solutions
When exploring solutions, aim for more than just one or two options, as a deeper understanding of the problem often reveals three, four, or five viable paths. This encourages more thorough thinking and better outcomes.
18. Rank Decision Criteria (Battling Criteria)
Use the “battling criteria” method by writing each decision criterion on a sticky note and comparing them pairwise to rank them by importance. This clarifies priorities and helps weigh options effectively.
19. Be Mindful of HALT States
Be aware of “HALT” states (Hungry, Angry, Lonely, Tired) and avoid making important decisions when experiencing them. These states compromise clear thinking and can lead to poor choices.
20. Curate Your Mental Inputs
Be careful and curatorial about the information and influences you allow into your mind, as these become the raw material for your future thoughts. This prevents negative or unhelpful content from shaping your perspective.
21. Read Widely to Prevent Mistakes
Read widely to learn from others’ experiences and insights, which allows you to prevent problems and avoid mistakes. This practice helps master “the best of what other people have figured out.”
22. Volunteer for Foresight
Volunteer in retirement or assisted living communities to talk with residents. Their life experiences and regrets can offer valuable “hindsight as foresight” for your own decisions.
23. Use Visual Reminders
Place physical reminders, like a sticky note with a key phrase (“outcome over ego”), in your environment to prompt desired mindset shifts or behaviors. This serves as a constant, non-negotiable cue.
5 Key Quotes
The people who consistently make the best decisions aren't necessarily smarter than everybody else, but they're always in the right position to take advantage of the circumstances.
Shane Parrish
Don't tell me your priorities, show me your calendar. And are we living life? Are we saying one thing and living another one? Are we matching up our real priorities with our calendar?
Shane Parrish
You can't eliminate these things. We think we can just sort of like wash them clean and launder them, but we can't. We can manage them and we can sort of work around them.
Shane Parrish
The source of all bad decisions is blind spots. We can't entirely eliminate them, but we can dramatically reduce them by seeing the world through their eyes.
Shane Parrish
Good decision-making comes down to two things. One, knowing how to get what you want. And two, knowing what is worth wanting.
Shane Parrish
3 Protocols
Five-Step Decision-Making Process
Shane Parrish- Define the problem: The person responsible for the decision must define the problem, seeking unique insights from others to remove blind spots.
- Explore possible solutions: Go beyond just two options; aim for three, four, or five solutions, potentially combining aspects of different ideas.
- Evaluate the options: Identify and rank the key criteria or variables that matter for success, using a 'battling criteria' method.
- Make the judgment: Choose the solution that best addresses the ranked criteria, considering all relevant factors like time, energy, focus, and cost.
- Execute the best option: Implement the chosen solution.
Battling Criteria Method for Evaluation
Shane Parrish- Write down all criteria: Use a post-it pad to list all criteria for the decision, where each note represents a 'success if X, Y, Z' variable.
- Battle criteria in pairs: Hold up two sticky notes at a time and decide which criterion is more important, with no ties allowed.
- Rank by importance: Put down the less important criterion and pick up a new one, continuing until all criteria are ranked in order of importance.
- Apply weights: Use the ranked criteria to assign weights when evaluating possible solutions.
Quarterly Input Review
Shane Parrish- Schedule a regular check-in: Book a 2-hour meeting with yourself at the end of each quarter.
- Review social circle: Mentally walk through who you are spending your time around and if they align with your desired influences.
- Audit information consumption: Assess the information you are consuming (social media, books, news) and whether it is positive or negative.
- Reflect on habits: Identify any bad habits you might be adapting and their potential sources.
- Adjust inputs: Make conscious changes to your social circle and information consumption to ensure positive and independent thinking.