The Science of Handling Uncertainty | Maya Shankar
Maya Shankar, former Senior Advisor in the Obama White House and host of "A Slight Change of Plans," discusses why humans struggle with uncertainty and change, offering strategies to cultivate a more malleable sense of self and navigate life's inevitable shifts.
Deep Dive Analysis
14 Topic Outline
Maya Shankar's Origin Story and Path to Behavioral Science
Applying Behavioral Science in Government: The Power of Nudges
Transition to the Science of Change: Personal Inspiration
Navigating Personal Loss and Sharing the Experience
Why Humans React Negatively to Uncertainty and Change
Cultivating a More Malleable Sense of Self
Understanding Cognitive Closure and its Impact on Resilience
Humans as Poor Cognitive Forecasters of Change
The Importance of Small, Reliable Daily Rituals
Seeking Awe-Inspiring Experiences for Perspective
Effective Ways to Process Problems and Give Advice
Loosening Control and Finding Meaning in Narratives
Techniques for Motivating Desired Behavior Change
Strategies for Sustaining Motivation and Goal Achievement
7 Key Concepts
Identity Foreclosure
This phenomenon describes when humans commit to a specific identity and fail to maintain an exploratory mindset. It contributes to the pain and disorientation experienced during change, as losing an identity can feel like losing a part of oneself.
Cognitive Closure
This refers to the human desire for environments with little ambiguity and perfect information about the present and future. People with less need for cognitive closure, who are more open to uncertainty, tend to be more resilient in the face of change.
Cognitive Forecasters
Humans are generally poor cognitive forecasters, meaning they are bad at predicting what will make them happy or unhappy, and how big changes in their lives will truly affect them. We often use overly simplistic models, failing to account for complex spillover effects.
Empathy Gaps
This refers to the disconnect between our present self and our future self, particularly when setting goals. We tend to lack empathy for our future self's physiological or psychological state, leading to unrealistic goal setting.
Middle Problem
A phenomenon where motivation is high at the beginning and end of a pursuit, but drops significantly in the middle. Strategies like shortening the 'middle' by breaking down large goals into smaller ones can help maintain motivation.
Temptation Bundling
A motivation technique that involves pairing an unpleasant activity with an activity that is intrinsically and immediately rewarding. By denying oneself the pleasure of the rewarding activity unless the unpleasant one is also being done, it makes the harder task more appealing.
Fresh Starts
These are moments that feel new and like a reset (e.g., a birthday, moving, first day of a week/month). Capitalizing on fresh starts makes it easier to integrate new habits, as the mind is more open to new behaviors during transitions.
8 Questions Answered
Behavioral scientists typically study how the mind works, how we make decisions, and how we develop attitudes and beliefs. In applied roles, they use insights from human behavior to design programs and policies that 'nudge' people towards positive outcomes, like improving government services or encouraging healthy choices.
Humans dislike uncertainty because they prefer certainty, even if it's about a negative outcome. Change also often involves a loss of identity, which can be destabilizing and painful as people attach themselves to specific identities for security.
One way is to identify yourself as someone who excels or thrives during times of uncertainty, reframing how you approach change. Another is to attach your identity to the underlying features or motivators of a pursuit (e.g., human connection, self-growth) rather than the specific pursuit itself, allowing for adaptation if circumstances change.
No, humans are generally poor cognitive forecasters. They tend to have overly simplistic models of how big changes will affect them, often considering the change in isolation and failing to predict the complex spillover effects into other areas of life, which can be both positive and negative.
Daily rituals provide a sense of control and stability when the world around you feels uncertain. They can help center you and subconsciously convince your brain that some things remain normal, offering a soothing anchor amidst significant life changes.
Feelings of awe and beauty allow us to distance ourselves from our own egos and individual identities, making us feel that the world is bigger than our personal anxieties. This healthy distance provides perspective, contextualizes our place in the universe, and can be healing.
Venting can feel emotionally good, but it's often not the most effective approach. The person you confide in may instinctively commiserate, which can prolong negative feelings. Sometimes, the best approach is for them to offer cognitive reframing strategies to help you see the problem through a different, more productive lens.
One effective strategy is to give advice to someone else who is trying to achieve a similar goal. This prompts you to recall successful past behaviors or form specific future action plans, thereby motivating yourself.
20 Actionable Insights
1. Cultivate Malleable Self-Identity
Develop a flexible self-identity not rigidly attached to specific roles or pursuits, allowing for greater adaptability when circumstances inevitably change.
2. Anchor Identity to Core Motivators
Instead of specific pursuits, attach your identity to the underlying features that truly light you up (e.g., human connection, impact) so you can find these traits in other activities if circumstances shift.
3. Foster an Open Mind
Cultivate a mindset that is open to all the nuanced ways a change might affect you and others, rather than categorizing it simply as ‘good’ or ‘bad,’ which builds resilience.
4. Resist Cognitive Closure
Actively resist the human desire for perfect information and certainty, especially when it’s not available, to become more resilient and comfortable with ambiguity during times of change.
5. Identify as Uncertainty-Thriver
Consciously reframe your self-identity as someone who excels or thrives during uncertainty and is challenge-oriented, which helps in navigating unexpected changes.
6. Humble Change Forecasting
Recognize that humans are poor forecasters of how big changes will truly affect them, and approach transitions with humility, expecting outcomes to be more complex than initially predicted.
7. Audit Self During Change
Regularly assess how a significant change is impacting you in unexpected ways, both positive and negative, to gain a more nuanced and accurate understanding of its effects.
8. Leverage Natural Sense-Making
Understand that your mind is naturally wired to create narratives and find meaning in experiences, which can serve as an ally in processing change and hardship, even if the conclusions aren’t always positive.
9. Third-Person Problem Perspective
When facing problems, distance yourself by imagining you are giving advice to a friend, adopting a third-person perspective to see issues more clearly, objectively, and avoid emotional entrapment.
10. Selective Venting Strategy
Choose carefully who you vent to, ensuring they understand that sometimes you need cognitive reframing strategies and perspective, not just commiseration, to move towards a more productive state.
11. Establish Daily Rituals
Create simple, consistent daily rituals that are easy to perform, as they provide a sense of control and stability when the world around you feels uncertain or overwhelming.
12. Regular Awe Experiences
Actively seek out experiences of awe and beauty, whether in nature or man-made, to gain perspective, distance yourself from ego and anxieties, and feel a healthy sense of smallness in the universe.
13. Capitalize on Fresh Starts
Use natural transition points like birthdays, new homes, or the start of a week to integrate new habits, as the mind is more open to new behaviors during these ‘reset moments.’
14. Self-Define Goals
Take ownership over your goals by defining your own targets, as this increases motivation and makes you more likely to achieve them compared to being given goals by others.
15. Choose Goal Options
If goals are externally imposed, seek or request a set of options from which to choose, as this fosters a sense of ownership and increases motivation.
16. Set Goals in Similar State
Bridge empathy gaps between your present and future self by setting goals when you are in a psychological and physiological state similar to when you’ll be working towards them, to ensure realistic and achievable targets.
17. Reward Quality Over Time
When rewarding yourself for work or progress, focus on metrics that reflect quality or completion rather than just time spent, to avoid ‘running out the clock’ and ensure genuine effort.
18. Shorten Goal Middles
Be mindful of the ‘middle problem’ where motivation drops; structure goals or tasks to have shorter or non-existent middles (e.g., break annual goals into monthly/weekly mini-goals) to maintain consistent motivation.
19. Give Advice to Self-Motivate
To motivate yourself, give advice to others who are pursuing similar goals, as this process helps you recall successful past behaviors and form specific action plans for your own future.
20. Practice Temptation Bundling
Pair an activity you find unpleasant (e.g., working out, folding laundry) with one you find immediately rewarding (e.g., listening to favorite music/podcast), reserving the reward only for the unpleasant activity, to make the harder task more appealing.
5 Key Quotes
We would rather be certain that a bad thing is going to happen than have to manage the feelings of uncertainty that accompany more of the unexpected.
Maya Shankar
I expected to grieve the loss of the violin. I did not expect to grieve the loss of myself.
Maya Shankar
On any given day, I feel like my mind is more concerned that I've lost my six-pack than it is that I might die.
Scott (Maya's guest)
We're really bad at predicting what things will make us happy or unhappy in the future. And I think the exact same thing is true when it comes to change.
Maya Shankar
We are natural-born storytellers at our core. And so what we find is that no matter what happens in our lives, most people try at least to build narratives around their stories and to try to find meaning in the good and the bad things that have happened to them.
Maya Shankar