The Science of Handling Uncertainty | Maya Shankar
Cognitive scientist Maya Shankar, a former Obama White House advisor and UN behavioral science advisor, discusses how to navigate life's constant changes and uncertainty. She explores cultivating a malleable sense of self, why humans struggle with forecasting, and practical strategies like daily rituals and leveraging "fresh start" moments to build resilience.
Deep Dive Analysis
17 Topic Outline
Introduction to Uncertainty and Cognitive Closure
Maya Shankar's Origin Story and Violin Injury
Transition to Cognitive Science and Behavioral Economics
Applying Behavioral Science in the Obama White House
Personal Experience with Loss and the Genesis of 'A Slight Change of Plans'
Why Humans React Negatively to Uncertainty and Change
Cultivating a Malleable Sense of Self
Humans as Bad Cognitive Forecasters of Change
The Importance of Auditing Yourself During Change
The Value of Small, Reliable Daily Rituals
Seeking Awe-Inspiring Experiences for Perspective
The Nuance of Venting and Giving Advice
Loosening the Grip on Control and Finding Meaning in Narratives
Techniques for Motivating Desired Behavior Change
The 'Middle Problem' in Goal Achievement
The Power of Giving Advice to Others
Temptation Bundling and Capitalizing on Fresh Starts
7 Key Concepts
Cognitive Closure
This refers to the human desire for unambiguous environments and perfect information about the current state of affairs and the future. People with less of a desire for cognitive closure, who have a more open mind, are found to be more resilient in the face of change.
Identity Foreclosure
This phenomenon describes when individuals commit to a specific identity and fail to maintain an exploratory mindset. This can be very destabilizing when life changes challenge or remove that committed identity, leading to a profound sense of personal loss.
Malleable Sense of Self
This is an adaptable self-identity that is not rigidly attached to specific pursuits (like a profession or hobby) but rather to the underlying features or motivations (e.g., human connection, impact, self-growth) that drive those pursuits. Cultivating this allows individuals to find new ways to express their core values even when circumstances change.
Bad Cognitive Forecasters
Humans are generally poor at predicting what will make them happy or unhappy in the future, and similarly, how big life changes will truly affect them. We tend to have overly simplistic models, thinking about changes in isolation and failing to anticipate complex, unexpected spillover effects, both positive and negative.
Empathy Gaps (Future Self)
This refers to the disconnect between one's present psychological and physiological state and the future state when a goal is to be achieved. This gap can lead to setting unrealistic goals because the present self doesn't fully empathize with the challenges or mindset of the future self.
Temptation Bundling
A strategy for behavior change that involves pairing an unpleasant activity with an activity that is intrinsically and immediately rewarding. By denying oneself the pleasure of the rewarding activity in other contexts, one can look forward to the unpleasant task because it's bundled with something enjoyable.
Fresh Starts
These are specific moments in time (e.g., birthdays, moving to a new home, the first day of a week or season) that feel like a reset or a new chapter. People are better at sticking with goals and integrating new habits when they are accompanied by these fresh start moments, as the mind is more open to new behaviors during transitions.
10 Questions Answered
Humans dislike uncertainty because it often involves a loss of identity, which is destabilizing. Research shows people prefer certainty about a bad outcome over managing the feelings of uncertainty that accompany the unexpected.
Behavioral scientists apply insights from human behavior and decision-making to design and redesign government programs and policies, helping agencies achieve goals more effectively and efficiently for people's lives to be better.
Cultivating a malleable self involves identifying oneself as someone who excels during uncertainty and attaching identity to the underlying features or motivations of pursuits (e.g., human connection) rather than the specific pursuit itself.
No, humans are generally bad cognitive forecasters, often oversimplifying the impact of changes and failing to anticipate complex, unexpected spillover effects into other areas of their lives, both positive and negative.
Small, reliable daily rituals provide a sense of control and stability when the world around feels uncertain. They help center oneself and can subconsciously convince the brain that some aspects of life remain normal, offering a soothing effect.
Feelings of awe and beauty help individuals distance themselves from their own egos and anxieties, providing a healthy perspective that the world is bigger than personal problems. This can lead to decreased neural activity associated with self-immersion, promoting healing and perspective.
Not always. While venting can feel emotionally good, sometimes the best approach involves cognitive reframing strategies rather than just commiseration. It's important to be selective about who you vent to and ensure they can help you get to a more productive place.
To motivate behavior change, it's crucial for individuals to define their own goals or choose from options to feel ownership. Additionally, setting goals when in a similar psychological and physiological state as when the goal will be pursued helps bridge empathy gaps with one's future self.
The 'middle problem' describes the drop in motivation experienced between the beginning and end of a pursuit. It can be addressed by keeping 'middles' short or non-existent, for example, by parsing large annual goals into smaller monthly or weekly mini-goals.
Giving advice to someone else who is trying to achieve a similar goal is a highly effective way to motivate oneself. This process helps the advice-giver recall past successful behaviors and form specific plans of action for their own future.
16 Actionable Insights
1. Cultivate Malleable Self-Identity
To better navigate change, attach your identity to the core features or motivators of your pursuits (e.g., human connection, impact, self-growth) rather than the specific pursuit itself. This makes your identity more durable and stabilizing when circumstances change, allowing you to find those underlying traits elsewhere.
2. Embrace Humility with Change
Approach change, whether willed or unwilled, with profound humility, recognizing that humans are bad at forecasting how major life changes will affect them. This metacognitive awareness helps you avoid overly simplistic models and be open to unexpected positive or negative outcomes.
3. Audit Yourself During Change
Actively audit yourself throughout change experiences to understand how they are impacting you in unexpected ways, as changes in one area often have spillover effects into others. This self-awareness helps you identify personal growth or unintended consequences that might otherwise go unnoticed.
4. Foster an Open Mind
Cultivate an open mind to reduce the desire for ‘cognitive closure’ and become more resilient in the face of uncertainty. This means being more okay with ambiguity and literally having an open mind to all the ways a change might affect you and others, rather than categorizing it as simply good or bad.
5. Reframe Identity for Resilience
Reframe your self-identity by aspiring to be someone who excels or thrives during times of uncertainty, is challenge-oriented, and enjoys problem-solving. This conscious labeling can be a helpful reorientation and reframing of how you experience change.
6. Practice Distanced Self-Reflection
To gain clarity and objectivity on your problems, imagine you are giving advice to a friend from a third-person perspective. This technique helps you distance yourself from your emotions and see challenges more clearly.
7. Establish Small Daily Rituals
Create simple, reliable daily rituals that you can consistently perform, especially during times of significant change. These rituals provide a sense of control and stability, anchoring you when the world around you feels uncertain.
8. Seek Awe-Inspiring Experiences
Regularly expose yourself to awe-inspiring experiences, whether in nature or man-made, to gain perspective and distance from your ego and anxieties. Feelings of awe help you see the world as bigger than yourself, fostering emotional resilience and healing.
9. Be Selective When Venting
When confiding in others, be selective about who you vent to and communicate whether you need emotional commiseration or cognitive reframing strategies. While emotional validation is important, sometimes the best support involves helping you see your problem through a different, more productive lens.
10. Own Your Goals
Increase your motivation and likelihood of achieving goals by being the one who defines your own targets. Even when given guidance, choosing from a set of options can foster a sense of ownership, making you more committed to the pursuit.
11. Set Goals in Similar States
Set goals when you are in a psychological and physiological state similar to the one you’ll be in when striving for that goal. This bridges the empathy gap between your present and future self, making your targets more realistic and achievable.
12. Reward Quality, Not Time
When motivating yourself, reward the quality or amount of work completed rather than the time spent working. This prevents merely ‘running out the clock’ and ensures that your efforts are focused on productive outcomes.
13. Keep ‘Middles’ Short
Be mindful of the ‘middle problem’ where motivation drops after the initial enthusiasm and before the final push, by keeping your ‘middles’ short or non-existent. Break annual goals into monthly or weekly mini-goals to maintain consistent motivation.
14. Give Advice to Motivate Self
Motivate yourself by giving advice to someone else who is trying to achieve a similar goal. This process helps you recall past successful behaviors and form specific action plans for your own future.
15. Practice Temptation Bundling
Pair an unpleasant activity with an intrinsically rewarding one, denying yourself the pleasure of the rewarding activity at any other time. This makes you look forward to the harder tasks because they are bundled with something you enjoy.
16. Capitalize on Fresh Starts
Take advantage of ‘fresh start’ moments like birthdays, moving, or the beginning of a new week to integrate new habits. During these transitions, a new set of behaviors is already expected, making it easier to adopt new routines.
6 Key Quotes
We would rather be certain that a bad thing is going to happen than have to manage the feelings of uncertainty that accompany more of the unexpected.
Maya Shankar
I expected to grieve the loss of the violin. I did not expect to grieve the loss of myself.
Maya Shankar
Maya, on any given day, I feel like my mind is more concerned that I've lost my six-pack than it is that I might die.
Scott (quoted by Maya Shankar)
We should really be auditing ourselves through our change experiences because we will change in lots of unexpected ways, but there may be, in fact, positive ways in which we're changing that we simply don't anticipate.
Maya Shankar
We are natural-born storytellers at our core. And so what we find is that no matter what happens in our lives, most people try at least to build narratives around their stories and to try to find meaning in the good and the bad things that have happened to them.
Maya Shankar
I don't have religious beliefs. I believe things really just do happen, not for a reason, but just happen. And when I think too hard about the inherent randomness in our universe, it's very overwhelming.
Maya Shankar
6 Protocols
Cultivating a Malleable Sense of Self
Maya Shankar- Start identifying yourself as someone who excels during times of uncertainty, who actually thrives during times of uncertainty, who's challenge-oriented and doesn't always need cognitive closure.
- Attach your identity to the features of a pursuit that really make you light up (e.g., human connection, seeing impact, witnessing self-growth), instead of the specific pursuit itself.
Effective Goal Setting
Maya Shankar (referencing Ayelet Fischbach)- Examine who is setting the goals; when you define your own targets, you're better at achieving them.
- Set goals when you're in a similar psychological and physiological state as the one you'll be in when you're striving for that goal, to bridge empathy gaps between your present and future self.
Overcoming the 'Middle Problem' in Motivation
Maya Shankar (referencing Ayelet Fischbach)- Be mindful that motivation tends to drop in the middle of a pursuit (e.g., between the beginning and end of a task or goal).
- Keep your 'middles' short or non-existent by parsing larger goals into mini-goals (e.g., an annual goal into monthly or weekly goals) to maintain consistent motivation.
Motivating Yourself Through Advice Giving
Maya Shankar- Give advice to someone else who is trying to achieve a similar goal.
- This process helps you recall past successful behaviors and form specific plans of action for your own future, thereby increasing your own motivation.
Temptation Bundling for Habit Formation
Maya Shankar (referencing Katie Milkman)- Pair an unpleasant activity with an activity that you find really intrinsically and immediately rewarding.
- Deny yourself the pleasure of the rewarding activity in other parts of life, so you only engage in it when performing the unpleasant task.
Capitalizing on Fresh Starts for New Habits
Maya Shankar (referencing Katie Milkman)- Identify moments that feel new and like a reset (e.g., a birthday, moving to a new home, the first day of spring, or even the first day of the week).
- Integrate new habits during these transitional periods, as your mind may be more open to adopting new behaviors when other aspects of your life are already changing.