Ambition and expected value at extremes (with Habiba Islam)

Sep 21, 2022 1h 5m 17 insights Episode Page ↗
In this episode, Spencer Greenberg speaks with Habiba Islam about using expected value in career decisions, particularly regarding ambition and doing good in the world. They also discuss different moral frameworks, including justice, in the context of long-termism and safeguarding humanity's future.
Actionable Insights

1. Pursue Risky Goals with Backup Plans

When pursuing highly ambitious or unlikely goals, ensure you build transferable skills, have fallback options, and develop multiple contingency plans (Plan B, C, Z) to mitigate personal risk and allow for moonshot attempts. This approach enables you to take significant risks without ruining your life, opening up possibilities for extremely positive outcomes.

2. Adopt Iterative Ambition Strategy

View your career path as a long-term, repeated game of trying ambitious things, learning from failures, and adapting your plans. This strategy increases the overall probability of achieving something of value over time, even if individual ambitious attempts do not immediately succeed.

3. Avoid Underconfidence in Potential

Actively combat underconfidence, as it prevents you from pursuing high-potential opportunities and reaching your full capabilities. While overconfidence can be risky, when paired with robust backup plans and attention to mental health, it allows you to take calculated risks with limited downside.

4. Embrace Ambitious Thinking

Allow yourself to explore the possibility of achieving the “best X ever” in a particular domain, as this mindset can psychologically open doors to innovative ideas. By considering how to accomplish the highest possible version of a goal, you may discover opportunities you would otherwise overlook.

5. Focus on Career Upside Potential

When planning your career, especially if aiming to do good, pay significant attention to options that, if successful, could yield extremely high impact. These “moonshot” opportunities often dominate expected value calculations and offer the greatest potential for positive change.

6. Aim for 10-50% Success Chance

For ambitious endeavors, target goals with an estimated 10% to 50% chance of success, as this range represents a healthy level of risk-taking. This avoids both unrealistically low probabilities that are hard to motivate for and overly safe options that limit potential impact.

7. Separate Calibration from Motivation

Cultivate the ability to be realistic about low probabilities of success (well-calibrated) while simultaneously maintaining high motivation and effort. This psychological separation allows you to commit fully to ambitious projects despite acknowledging their inherent difficulty.

8. Use Expected Value for Decisions

Employ expected value calculations (probability times outcome) as a primary tool for making decisions, especially in career choices and other significant life commitments involving uncertainty. This method provides a rational framework for evaluating potential outcomes.

9. Practice Probability Assignment Daily

Regularly practice estimating probabilities for everyday events to hone your mind and improve the calibration of your beliefs. This skill is invaluable for better decision-making, particularly in situations where precise statistical data is unavailable.

10. Caution with Extreme EV Calculations

Be wary of applying expected value calculations to situations involving extremely minuscule probabilities paired with astronomically large outcomes (e.g., Pascal’s mugging scenarios). In such extreme cases, the calculation can become practically unreasonable, suggesting a need for a pragmatic floor on probability.

11. Advocate for Future Generations’ Rights

Consider future generations as a disenfranchised group whose well-being is entirely dependent on current actions, similar to historical movements for other disadvantaged groups. This perspective highlights the responsibility to safeguard their potential lives and prevent future suffering, such as from climate change.

12. Preserve Humanity for Atonement

Recognize that the continued existence of humanity is a prerequisite for atoning for past injustices and historical wrongs. Extinction would permanently close the door on the possibility of rectifying these moral debts.

13. Embrace Moral Uncertainty

Acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in finding objective moral truth, given centuries of philosophical debate, and assign credence to diverse ethical perspectives. This approach allows for a more robust and flexible ethical framework, integrating insights from utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics.

14. Foster Community Effort & Reward

Build and participate in communities that reward the effort and attempt at ambitious, risky endeavors, rather than solely focusing on successful outcomes. This supportive environment encourages individuals to take valuable moonshot risks for the collective good without fear of being devalued for failure.

15. Fund Small, “Kooky” High-Impact Ideas

As an individual donor, consider providing small grants for unconventional ideas that could have high impact but are often overlooked by larger funders due to their scale. These “kooky” projects can be high expected value bets, especially when you have unique insights.

16. Leverage Private Information in Funding

When making funding decisions, particularly for smaller projects, prioritize those where you possess unique, private information about the project, the individuals involved, or their specific needs and timelines. This allows you to identify high-potential opportunities that larger, more distant funders might miss.

17. Utilize 80,000 Hours Advising

Apply for free one-on-one career advising from 80,000 Hours if you are interested in exploring high-impact career options, regardless of your current stage. This service provides guidance, job suggestions, and funding opportunities to help you maximize your positive impact.