Bringing conspiracy theorists back from the brink (with Jesse Richardson)

1. Cultivate Intellectual Humility

Adopt the baseline mindset that you might be wrong about things, as this is the core of critical thinking and allows for continuous learning and updating of beliefs.

2. Adopt Probabilistic Thinking

Shift from binary (true/false, right/wrong) thinking to a probabilistic mindset, which profoundly changes how you evaluate information and allows for more nuanced understanding.

3. Prioritize Emotional & Social Connection

Recognize that humans are primarily emotional and social creatures; prioritize building rapport, listening, and planting seeds of doubt with kindness and connection over direct rational persuasion to change minds.

4. Shift to Truth-Seeking Motivation

Recognize that all reasoning is motivated by prior beliefs and biases, and actively shift your motivation towards curiosity and truth-seeking to enable continuous learning and deeper understanding.

5. Embrace a Scout Mindset

Approach topics with a ‘scout mindset,’ aiming to understand things impartially, be truth-seeking, and curious about what’s truly happening, rather than being overly confident in your existing beliefs.

6. Maintain Connection with Believers

If a loved one is deep in a conspiracy theory, maintain social connection, let them know you’re on their side, and gently plant seeds of doubt without attacking their beliefs to facilitate their own mind-changing process.

7. Facilitate Non-Adversarial Mind Change

When trying to help others change their minds, use non-adversarial approaches that avoid making them defensive and instead encourage good faith engagement.

8. Build Rapport, Listen to Understand

To help people soften their beliefs and become more receptive to changing their minds, build rapport and genuinely listen to their concerns, fostering a collaborative understanding.

9. Recognize Gradual Mind Change

Understand that minds change iteratively and slowly over time, not in a single setting, so approach discussions with patience and a long-term perspective.

10. Avoid Fact-Only Debunking

Do not attempt to debunk deeply held beliefs with facts and logic alone, as this is often ineffective due to human delusion and motivated reasoning.

11. Prioritize Wisdom Over Knowledge

Strive for wisdom, which is understanding the ‘how and why’ of things, enabling discernment and a self-regulating system that promotes deeper understanding, especially on contentious issues.

12. Contextualize Adversarial Approach

Differentiate between public forums, where calling out factual inaccuracies can be advisable, and one-on-one conversations, where an adversarial approach is counterproductive and creates more polarization.

13. Flag Confidence Levels

When expressing opinions, clearly state your level of confidence or uncertainty, as this helps others understand your position and makes it more acceptable to share non-expert views.

14. Admit Wrongness Graciously

When corrected or proven wrong, admit it graciously and update your views, as this elevates your status and demonstrates integrity and a commitment to truth.

15. Engage in Group Reasoning

Participate in group discussions and debates with friends in good faith, as collective reasoning helps identify biases and leads to better understanding than individual thought.

16. Question Power Structures

Actively question and hold powerful entities like pharmaceutical companies or governments to account, as this is a crucial part of the democratic process and can provide value.

17. Evaluate Conspiracies on a Scale

Instead of binary true/false thinking, evaluate conspiracy theories on a nuanced scale, recognizing that reality is complex and not all theories are equally valid or dangerous.

18. Practice Metacognitive Thinking

Engage in metacognitive thinking about your beliefs, allowing you to critically investigate and evaluate your own thoughts rather than feeling defensive.

19. Understand Underlying Motivations

Recognize that conspiracy beliefs often stem from feelings of disempowerment, a desire for control or understanding, or a need to externalize blame, rather than purely rational assessment.

20. Recognize Status as a Driver

Understand that perceived threats to social status are powerful emotional and psychological drivers of behavior, often unconsciously influencing beliefs and actions, including susceptibility to conspiracy theories.

21. Probabilistically Assess Secret-Keeping

When evaluating a conspiracy, consider probabilistically how many people would need to keep the secret and their motivation to remain silent, rather than using it as an absolute rule.

22. Beware Confirmation Bias

Be aware of confirmation bias, as it is a fundamental bias that drives motivated reasoning and can significantly distort your perception of information.

23. Understand Curse of Knowledge

Recognize the ‘curse of knowledge’ bias, where your own understanding makes it difficult to remember what it’s like not to know something, improving your ability to teach and communicate effectively.

24. Foster Good Faith Relationships

Engage in good faith relationships and conversations with people holding different political beliefs, as this often reveals misunderstandings rather than intractable differences.

25. Address Bad Incentives

Recognize that many societal problems stem from bad incentive structures and feedback loops, rather than solely from a small number of malevolent actors.

26. Prioritize Culture Change

While education reform is important, prioritize efforts on culture change, as resonant and powerful ideas can shift culture more quickly and profoundly than long-term educational reforms.