Scout and Soldier Mindsets (with Julia Galef)
1. Embrace Scout Mindset
Prioritize seeing things as they are, not as you wish, by cultivating intellectual honesty, objectivity, and curiosity about the truth. This foundational shift helps you make better decisions by grounding them in reality.
2. Cultivate Expected Value Motivation
When pursuing difficult goals, motivate yourself by calculating the expected value (probability of success * value of success + probability of failure * cost of failure). This allows you to strive for important things even with low odds, without needing self-delusion.
3. Separate Confidence Types
Develop social confidence (self-assuredness, passionate communication) to be influential, while maintaining epistemic humility (well-calibrated uncertainty in beliefs). This allows you to lead effectively without sacrificing intellectual honesty.
4. Replace Self-Deception with True Coping
When facing negative emotions or setbacks, actively seek coping strategies that are both comforting and true, such as learning from mistakes, finding silver linings, or reframing perspectives, rather than resorting to self-delusion.
5. Practice Scout Mindset Habitually
Consistently apply scout mindset, even in low-stakes situations like political discussions, to reinforce the habit of questioning assumptions and admitting errors. This general practice makes it easier to adopt a truth-seeking approach when stakes are high.
6. Strategically Engage Opposing Views
To learn from disagreements, seek out people on the ‘other side’ who share some common ground with you (e.g., values, background, intellectual framework). This reduces polarization and makes their arguments more likely to resonate and change your mind.
7. Signal Good Faith in Disagreements
To shift others from soldier to scout mindset, actively signal your good faith by pointing out flaws in your own position, acknowledging valid points in their argument, or highlighting common ground. This disarms defensiveness and fosters productive dialogue.
8. Counter Present Bias in Thinking
Be aware that the immediate gratification of feeling ‘right’ (soldier mindset) can outweigh the delayed, but greater, benefits of seeking truth (scout mindset). Consciously choose long-term accuracy over short-term comfort.
9. Make Scout Mindset Rewarding
Actively reframe changing your mind or admitting error as a positive, virtuous act. This ‘patches the bug’ in human psychology by creating immediate rewards for intellectual honesty, making scout mindset more appealing.
10. Avoid False Belief Ripple Effects
Understand that self-deception can lead to a cascade of further false beliefs and distorted interpretations of reality. Strive for truth to prevent these unpredictable, negative ripple effects across your belief system.
11. Use ‘Betting’ to Test Beliefs
To shift from merely making claims to genuinely assessing truth, imagine making a bet on your belief. Operationalizing the belief and considering the stakes can reveal how confident you truly are and encourage a more truth-oriented mindset.
12. Learn from Losing Arguments
Reframe ’losing’ an argument as an opportunity to acquire the opponent’s effective arguments and insights. This ‘borrows their weapons’ to strengthen your own future reasoning, making you more effective in the long run.
13. Separate Belief, Desire, Presentation
Consciously distinguish between what you actually believe, what you wish were true, and what you want others to think you believe. This clarity is crucial for intellectual honesty and effective communication.
14. Use Honest Goal Wording
When articulating ambitious goals, use precise and honest phrasing like ‘Our goal is to be the best at X’ instead of ‘We will be the best at X.’ This conveys ambition without making unsubstantiated claims.
15. Speak with Justified Confidence
To project genuine confidence, focus on stating what you are 100% certain of, such as your commitment to effort or your thoroughness in preparation, rather than making absolute claims about uncertain future outcomes.
16. Interpret Charitably in Debates
Even if the other person is in soldier mindset, you can still gain value by charitably interpreting their argument, focusing on the underlying context or potential truths you might have overlooked, to enrich your own perspective.