THINKERS Workshop (with Spencer Greenberg)

Oct 13, 2020 58m 3s 16 insights Episode Page ↗
Spencer Greenberg, PhD in applied math and founder of Clearer Thinking, discusses cognitive biases, the importance of nuanced thinking (probabilistic, gray, multi-factor), and the distinction between soldier and scout mindsets. He also shares his FIRE framework for choosing between reflective and intuitive decision-making.
Actionable Insights

1. Adopt Scout Mindset

When engaging in disagreement, ensure you are in a ‘scout mindset’ (seeking truth and open to changing your mind) before trying to convince others. If they are in a ‘soldier mindset’ (trying to win), first aim to shift them to a scout mindset to enable productive dialogue.

2. Cultivate Probabilistic Thinking

Recognize that you should be at least a little uncertain about all your beliefs, shifting from binary ’true/false’ statements to assigning probabilities (e.g., ‘I’m 90% sure’). This allows for a more accurate self-model and openness to counter-evidence.

3. Practice Gray Thinking

Avoid the ‘goodness binary’ by accepting that almost every good thing has some bad, and vice versa. To fully understand complex topics, strive to see both positive and negative aspects and everything in between.

4. Employ Multi-Factor Thinking

Overcome the ‘identification binary’ by analyzing things based on multiple factors rather than simple ‘is/is not’ classifications. This allows for a nuanced understanding of how something exhibits various properties on different spectrums.

5. Choose Decision-Making Mode (FIRE)

Use intuitive (gut) decision-making for ‘FIRE’ decisions: Fast, Irrelevant, Repetitious (with feedback), or Evolutionary. For all other important decisions, engage in reflective thinking, which involves multiple considerations and more time.

6. Generate More Decision Options

For important decisions, actively generate multiple options beyond the initial obvious choices, as the quality of your final outcome is limited by the range of alternatives you considered.

7. Understand Others’ Perspectives

To effectively change someone’s mind, first ensure they don’t feel attacked and genuinely understand their perspective, including their fears and reasons for belief. Then, create a clear path from their current beliefs to your own.

8. Identify Core Beliefs

When trying to change someone’s mind, focus on identifying and addressing their ’load-bearing columns’ or fundamental beliefs that support their entire belief system, as merely challenging minor points may be ineffective.

9. Correct Cognitive Biases

To reduce cognitive biases, first learn to identify the bias pattern in the real world, then know how to combat it, and finally, feel motivated enough to apply the correction strategy.

10. Memorize Biases and Fallacies

Memorize common logical fallacies and cognitive biases as a foundational step. This pattern recognition is crucial for noticing flawed thinking in yourself and others, even though memorization alone isn’t sufficient for correction.

11. Calibrate Probabilistic Beliefs

Assign specific numerical probabilities to your beliefs (e.g., 60% sure) instead of vague terms like ‘pretty sure’ to improve precision and calibration. Tools like the game on clearerthinking.org can help train this skill.

12. Re-Anchor Against Bias

When encountering anchoring (e.g., in negotiations), ignore the initial number given and instead determine your own independent valuation, then propose that number to avoid being unduly influenced.

13. Write to Clarify Thinking

Utilize writing (e.g., blogging, journaling) as a powerful tool to expand your working memory and clarify your thoughts. This process helps you figure out what you truly think about complex topics.

14. Confidence in Process

Reconcile confidence with self-delusion by having confidence in the process of continuous learning, adaptation, and trying different things over a long period, rather than being overly confident in any single belief or specific outcome.

15. Expose Kids to Diverse Views

Expose children early to diverse perspectives and the idea that no single group has all the answers. This encourages them to listen to different viewpoints beyond their immediate social bubble.

16. Teach Children Argumentation

When children make flawed arguments, gently point out the logical weaknesses and guide them to construct stronger arguments, even if their conclusion is correct, to foster good thinking habits.