What beats intuition when it comes to doing good? (with Marcus Davis)
Marcus A. Davis, co-founder and CEO of Rethink Priorities, discusses comparing different forms of good, effective charity, and decision-making under uncertainty. He advocates for explicit models and considering empirical, normative, and meta-normative factors in philanthropy.
Deep Dive Analysis
17 Actionable Insights
1. Prioritize Global Cost-Effectiveness
When addressing a specific problem (e.g., lead exposure or disease), focus efforts on low-income countries because interventions are significantly cheaper there, leading to a much greater impact per dollar spent.
2. Build Explicit Decision Models
For significant, complex decisions (especially in large-scale philanthropy), create explicit spreadsheet models to transparently account for all relevant factors, costs, and benefits, rather than relying on vague intuition.
3. Account for Uncertainty in Models
Avoid treating model outputs as definitive point estimates; instead, capture and model uncertainty using distributions or simulations to understand the full range of possible outcomes and prevent misleading conclusions.
4. Consider Three Decision Domains
When making complex decisions, analyze them across three domains: empirical uncertainty (what happens), normative uncertainty (what matters and how much), and meta-normative uncertainty (how to decide under uncertainty, including aggregating moral views).
5. Acknowledge Model Limitations
Always identify and document the limitations of any model, actively considering missing factors or how different assumptions might alter conclusions, and use human judgment rather than blindly following model outputs.
6. Start with Simple Models
Begin modeling complex problems with the simplest possible model that captures the core phenomenon, then gradually add complexity, as simpler models are easier to introspect on, identify issues, and understand.
7. Invest More Time for Higher Stakes
Scale the effort and complexity of decision-making models with the stakes involved; for decisions moving millions of dollars, investing significant time to refine models is highly worthwhile.
8. Don’t Avoid Comparing Good
Resist the temptation to declare different types of good (e.g., saving lives vs. funding art) as incomparable; critically evaluate their merits to determine where resources can achieve the most positive impact.
9. Allocate Income to Charity
Dedicate a meaningful portion of your income (e.g., 2-10%) to charity, as most moral theories suggest making a significant effort to help others, especially if you are relatively well-off.
10. Use Charity Evaluators
For individual donations, leverage rigorous charity evaluators like GiveWell, which identify highly impactful and evidence-based organizations, ensuring your money does more good than guessing.
11. Challenge Proximity Bias
Critically examine the natural inclination to prioritize people solely based on their proximity or nationality in charitable giving, as it’s difficult to ethically justify valuing someone significantly more due to geographic or national borders.
12. Evaluate Moral Theory Plausibility
When faced with conflicting moral theories, critically assess their plausibility rather than accepting all as equally valid, especially when extreme claims are made that contradict widely held ethical intuitions.
13. Prioritize Strong Empirical Evidence
When evaluating interventions, prioritize robust empirical evidence, such as multiple randomized controlled trials (RCTs), as they provide a much stronger basis for understanding what actually works compared to philosophical arguments alone.
14. Foundations Aggregate Moral Views
Large foundations should seriously consider aggregating across different moral theories (e.g., utilitarianism, deontology) with assigned credences to acknowledge uncertainty and make more robust resource allocation decisions.
15. Be Humble About Moral Truth
Approach abstract philosophical questions, such as the existence of objective moral truth, with humility and acknowledge inherent uncertainty, as definitive answers are often elusive.
16. Act on World Improvement Potential
Embrace the belief that it is possible to improve the world and actively engage in efforts to help others, especially if you are in a position to do so effectively, recognizing the progress made by past generations.
17. High Impact in Non-Profit
Recognize that the non-profit sector, due to fewer financial incentives and less competition, offers significant opportunities for dedicated individuals to have a disproportionately large positive impact.