What does humanity need to survive after a global catastrophe? (with David Denkenberger)
1. Repurpose Factories for Sugar Production
Explore repurposing paper factories to convert cellulose (from dead trees or agricultural residues) into edible sugar. This leverages existing infrastructure for a scalable and economical food source in a disaster.
2. Convert Natural Gas to Protein
Develop and scale technologies that use microorganisms to convert natural gas (methane) into protein-rich food. This provides a viable food source if natural gas remains accessible after a disaster.
3. Rapid Seaweed Cultivation
Scale up seaweed cultivation, especially in shallow ocean areas, as it grows rapidly (10% per day) and thrives in low light levels. This is a less capital-intensive food production method.
4. Build Low-Tech Greenhouses
Rapidly scale up production of plastic sheeting to construct low-tech greenhouses in tropical regions. This enables temperature control and the growth of essential crops like corn, rice, and soybeans in adverse conditions.
5. Hydrogen-Fed Microbes for Protein
Commercialize the technology of using electricity to split water, then feeding the resulting hydrogen to microbes that produce protein-rich food. This method offers a high-protein food source.
6. Relocate Resilient Crops to Tropics
In scenarios with global cooling and low light, relocate and cultivate resilient crops like potatoes, sugar beets, wheat, barley, and canola oil to tropical regions, as they can withstand such conditions.
7. Cultivate Mushrooms for Survival
In a catastrophe where sunlight is blocked, consider cultivating mushrooms as a food source. They can grow without sunlight and scale up quickly due to their numerous spores.
8. Rapid Catastrophe Communication Plan
Develop a rapid communication plan, potentially with social media and search engines, to inform the public during a catastrophe that enough food can be produced through cooperation. This aims to prevent panic and promote collective action.
9. Establish Backup Radio Communication
Establish a global backup radio communication system using shortwave/ham radios with independent power (e.g., solar panels) and EMP protection. This ensures communication during widespread electrical grid failures.
10. Scale Manual Farming Tools
Plan and develop the capacity to rapidly scale up the production of hand and animal-powered farming tools. This is crucial for maintaining agricultural output and food transport if industrial systems fail.
11. Utilize Natural Fertilizers
Increase planting of legumes (peas, beans, peanuts) to naturally fix nitrogen. Additionally, explore burning wood from landfills to create ash for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, replacing industrial inputs.
12. Adopt Organic Pest Control
Implement organic agriculture pest control methods, such as using natural predators. This allows for effective pest management without reliance on industrial pesticides after a disaster.
13. Reduce Food Waste & Animal Feed
To address minor food production shortfalls (around 10%), reduce food waste, feed less food to animals, and convert less food into biofuels. This helps manage food prices and prevents cascading societal consequences.
14. Demonstrate Resilient Food Production
Conduct proof-of-concept demonstrations to show that resilient food production technologies can be rapidly implemented and scaled. This validates preparedness plans for future catastrophes.
15. Manage Catastrophe Diet Limits
Be aware of potential nutrient imbalances in resilient foods (e.g., high iodine in seaweed) and consider simple processing like boiling to mitigate issues. In a catastrophe, dietary limits might need to be pushed.
16. Focus on Positive Interventions
When dealing with catastrophic risks, focus on the positive interventions and solutions rather than dwelling on potential negative outcomes. This helps maintain psychological well-being and sustained effort.
17. Implement Volunteer Taster Tasks
For organizations, implement a ’taster task’ (1-2 weeks) for potential volunteers to assess mutual fit before full onboarding. This strategy helps ensure significant contributions and successful volunteer engagement.