What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)

Mar 30, 2022 1h 9m 20 insights Episode Page ↗
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Walt Hickey about the shifting media landscape, particularly the rise of graphic novels. They also discuss the importance of soft power in international relations and the challenges of communicating probability and uncertainty effectively.
Actionable Insights

1. Avoid Vague Probability Words

When communicating predictions or likelihoods, avoid ambiguous words like “possible” or “unlikely” as their numerical interpretations vary too widely, leading to miscommunication. Instead, use precise percentages or well-understood phrases like “even odds” (50%) or “almost certainly” (90-100%).

2. Use Numbers for Probabilities

For precise communication, especially in the 30-70% range where English lacks clear words, use percentage chances to avoid misinterpretation of likelihoods. This forces clarity and ensures your audience understands the intended probability.

3. Acknowledge Uncertainty Explicitly

When making forecasts or predictions, be assertive about the presence of uncertainty. Clearly state the sources of uncertainty to provide a more honest and comprehensive assessment.

4. Calibrate Your Forecasts

Improve your forecasting ability by making probabilistic predictions about important life events and tracking their outcomes. Tools like Prediction Book can help you assess how calibrated your predictions are (e.g., if 80% likely events actually happen 80% of the time).

5. Interrogate Model Predictions

When using models for predictions, identify what relevant information you possess that the model lacks to refine your estimate. This allows you to build a more accurate forecast by accounting for uncaptured variables.

6. Focus on Content, Not Credentials

When evaluating information or arguments, prioritize the substance of what is being said rather than relying on the speaker’s credentials. This promotes independent and critical thinking, encouraging you to believe based on the message itself.

7. Scrutinize Social Science Studies

When encountering social science studies, carefully examine the details, methodology, and data collection. Small details can significantly alter the interpretation and validity of the findings, so always look closely.

8. Ask ‘Compared to What?’

When analyzing media consumption trends or any time usage data (e.g., “kids are reading less”), always ask what the comparison point is and how the data is collected. Ensure the study accounts for new media formats (e.g., graphic novels, web comics) to avoid misperceptions.

9. Center Stories on Data Points

To make journalistic stories more compelling and factual, center them around specific data points or facts. For example, instead of saying “this is a dangerous intersection,” state “this intersection saw an increase in collisions this year” to provide concrete evidence.

10. Facilitate Deeper Online Conversations

Utilize online text-based communication (like instant messaging) to foster deeper conversations. The absence of face-to-face interaction can help individuals express their thoughts and feelings more openly than in person or via text messages.

11. View Criticism as Improvement

Adopt a mindset that critiquing a country’s flaws is an urge to fix and address issues, rather than a fundamental rejection or desire to “burn the house down.” This perspective encourages constructive engagement and problem-solving.

12. Support Kidney Donors

Advocate for policies that treat kidney donors as honored public servants, providing them with top-tier healthcare, stipends for follow-up, and reimbursement for expenses. This approach would improve the donation system and encourage more donations.

13. Consider Kidney Donation for Family

If a family member needs a kidney transplant, consider the option of donation. Hearing positive experiences from healthy donors can make you more likely to donate and potentially save a loved one’s life.

14. Understand Kidney Exchange Chains

Be aware that donating a kidney to a stranger (Good Samaritan donation) can initiate a “kidney exchange” or “paired kidney donation” chain. This process can enable multiple transplants and lead to better immunological matches for recipients.

15. Avoid Projecting Moral Obligations

When others make highly self-sacrificing choices (e.g., kidney donation, challenge studies), avoid projecting your own moral obligations or discomfort onto them. Support individuals in making such choices if they want to, as it can benefit society.

16. Evaluate Marijuana Legalization Holistically

When forming an opinion on marijuana legalization, consider both its potential benefits (e.g., medical use, personal enjoyment) and negative consequences (e.g., addiction, motivation, driving impairment). This approach helps in arriving at a balanced synthesis.

17. Advocate for Consistent Marijuana Laws

Support efforts to harmonize marijuana legalization policies, particularly addressing inconsistencies between state and federal laws in the U.S. This would create a more coherent and effective regulatory environment for cannabis.

18. Leverage Drawn Visuals for Intense Themes

For creators, consider using drawn or animated visuals (e.g., graphic novels, cartoons) to explore deeper or darker themes. This medium allows for a heightened suspension of disbelief, making intense content more palatable to audiences.

19. Recognize ‘Whataboutism’ in Geopolitics

Be aware that totalitarian states often use “whataboutism” (e.g., pointing out historical flaws of liberal nations) as a technique to undermine messages of liberalism and deflect criticism. This helps in critically evaluating international discourse.

20. Utilize Graphic Novels for Conciseness

For creators, leverage the effectiveness of graphic novels to convey complex actions or emotions concisely through images. This reduces the need for extensive textual descriptions, making storytelling more efficient.