Why it's so hard to have confidence that charities are doing good (with Elie Hassenfeld)

Mar 16, 2022 1h 55m 12 insights Episode Page ↗
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Ellie Hassenfeld, co-founder of GiveWell, about evaluating charity effectiveness. They discuss GiveWell's rigorous approach to identifying high-impact giving opportunities in low and middle-income countries, the philosophical challenges of comparing different types of good, and the complexities of evidence evaluation.
Actionable Insights

1. Maximize Giving Impact

Prioritize maximizing impact in charitable giving by focusing on organizations with strong evidence of effectiveness, high cost-effectiveness (good per dollar), and the ability to absorb additional funds to do more good.

2. Focus on Few Charities

Instead of spreading donations across many charities, concentrate giving on a small number of highly effective organizations where impact can be reasonably confident, as this approach aims to maximize the good accomplished per dollar.

3. Use Expected Value Framework

When evaluating giving opportunities, adopt an expected value framework where a small chance of huge impact is weighed equally against a high chance of moderate impact, rather than solely seeking high-confidence outcomes.

4. Prioritize Poorest People

To maximize charitable impact, prioritize giving to the poorest people in the world, as a dollar can often have a significantly greater beneficial effect on their lives compared to those in wealthier countries.

5. Skepticism for Initial Estimates

Approach initial, quick cost-effectiveness estimates with skepticism, as deeper investigation often reveals complexities and potential failure points that reduce the perceived impact, leading to lower final estimates.

6. Recognize Brittleness of Good

Understand that achieving significant positive impact is ‘brittle,’ requiring many factors to align correctly. Be aware that programs can fail in numerous unforeseen ways, and initial optimistic assumptions often overlook these potential pitfalls.

7. Invest in Charity Evaluation

Advocate for and invest in rigorous evaluation of charitable programs. High-quality evidence is crucial for identifying exceptionally effective interventions (20x, 30x, 100x better) in a world where impact is often power-law distributed, making it worthwhile over the long run.

8. Multiple Angles for Morality

When facing complex moral trade-offs (e.g., valuing lives saved vs. well-being), approach the problem from multiple angles, synthesizing academic literature, surveys of affected populations and donors, and empirical analysis, recognizing there’s no single ‘right’ answer and continuous updating is necessary.

9. Combine Quant & Qual Evaluation

To avoid the pitfalls of over-quantification, always combine detailed quantitative models with a qualitative ‘gut check’ and simplified models. Ask if a decision would still make sense without the numbers to ensure critical thinking and prevent over-reliance on potentially flawed numerical outputs.

10. Support Known Small Needs

For personal giving, especially for smaller amounts, consider leveraging your personal network to support individuals or small projects you know well, as these opportunities might not be visible to larger evaluators and your personal trust can be a valuable asset.

11. Understand Donor Motivations

Reflect on your own motivations for giving. Recognize that factors like social signaling, local community ties, tangible results, and ‘warm fuzzies’ often influence giving more than pure impact maximization. Be aware of these biases if your goal is to maximize good.

12. Consider Animal Welfare

Acknowledge that animals deserve significant moral consideration. If you are interested in effective giving, consider organizations focused on animal welfare, even if they are not the primary focus of human-centric evaluators.