Ambition and expected value at extremes (with Habiba Islam)
In this episode, Spencer Greenberg speaks with Habiba Islam about using expected value in career decisions, particularly regarding ambition and doing good in the world. They also discuss different moral frameworks, including justice, in the context of long-termism and safeguarding humanity's future.
Deep Dive Analysis
7 Topic Outline
Defining Ambition for Doing Good
Expected Value and Its Philosophical Limitations
Practical Approaches to Ambitious Career Decisions
Non-Consequentialist Justifications for Longtermism
Justice and Duties to Future Generations
Personal Moral Frameworks and Values
80,000 Hours Career Advising
8 Key Concepts
Expected Value
A concept used to quantify the value of an uncertain outcome by multiplying the probability of an event by the value of its outcome. It's considered a fundamental tool for rational decision-making under uncertainty.
Pascal's Mugging
A thought experiment illustrating a flaw in expected value theory, where an extremely small probability of an extremely large outcome (positive or negative) can lead to counter-intuitive or seemingly irrational decisions, like giving away your wallet to prevent quadrillions of years of suffering.
Frequentist Probability
An interpretation of probability that defines it based on the frequency of an event occurring in a long series of repeated trials. It is limited to events that can be repeated under similar conditions.
Bayesian Probability
An interpretation of probability that defines it as a subjective credence or degree of belief in an event. It allows for assigning probabilities to unique events (like a presidential election) and updating those beliefs with new evidence.
Scout Mindset
A mental model that emphasizes the ability to separate one's calibration (accurate assessment of probabilities) from one's psychological resilience and motivation to pursue a goal. It allows individuals to acknowledge low probabilities of success while still committing significant effort.
Longtermism
A moral framework that prioritizes positively influencing the long-term future, often justified by the vast potential for good or suffering that could exist for trillions of future beings, even if the probabilities are small.
Population Ethics
A field of ethics that deals with moral questions concerning the creation and destruction of lives, including whether it is better for someone to exist than not exist, and how to compare different populations or futures with varying numbers of people.
Virtue Ethics
A moral philosophy that focuses on the character of the moral agent rather than the consequences of actions (consequentialism) or the adherence to rules (deontology). It asks what it means to be a good person and how to act out of virtuous motivations like kindness.
7 Questions Answered
One should be very ambitious, even taking gambles on things that have a smaller chance of panning out but could go amazingly well if successful, especially if fallback options are in place.
Expected value calculations run into problems with extremely small probabilities combined with extremely large outcomes (Pascal's Mugging) and when assigning any non-zero probability to an infinite outcome, as they can lead to counter-intuitive or flawed conclusions.
For healthy risk-taking ambition, a good range for the probability of success is often considered to be between 10% and 50%, allowing for significant challenge without being completely unrealistic.
Strategies include focusing on the 'scout mindset' to separate calibration from motivation, viewing one's career as a longer-term series of ambitious attempts with learning from failures, and having strong backup plans to mitigate personal risk.
Yes, arguments include viewing future generations as a disenfranchised group with rights that depend on current actions, a duty to carry on the human narrative and atone for past injustices, and the idea that a world with more happy people is simply better, even if not 'better for' non-existent individuals.
Frequentist probability, based on repeated events, is concrete but limited. Bayesian probability, based on subjective credence, is more flexible for unique events and allows for belief updating, but can become murkier when applied to events far outside experience.
A supportive community can make ambitious, low-probability bets more palatable by providing psychological comfort, facilitating collective effort, and having people's backs if they fail, allowing them to try again without being ruined.
17 Actionable Insights
1. Pursue Risky Goals with Backup Plans
When pursuing highly ambitious or unlikely goals, ensure you build transferable skills, have fallback options, and develop multiple contingency plans (Plan B, C, Z) to mitigate personal risk and allow for moonshot attempts. This approach enables you to take significant risks without ruining your life, opening up possibilities for extremely positive outcomes.
2. Adopt Iterative Ambition Strategy
View your career path as a long-term, repeated game of trying ambitious things, learning from failures, and adapting your plans. This strategy increases the overall probability of achieving something of value over time, even if individual ambitious attempts do not immediately succeed.
3. Avoid Underconfidence in Potential
Actively combat underconfidence, as it prevents you from pursuing high-potential opportunities and reaching your full capabilities. While overconfidence can be risky, when paired with robust backup plans and attention to mental health, it allows you to take calculated risks with limited downside.
4. Embrace Ambitious Thinking
Allow yourself to explore the possibility of achieving the “best X ever” in a particular domain, as this mindset can psychologically open doors to innovative ideas. By considering how to accomplish the highest possible version of a goal, you may discover opportunities you would otherwise overlook.
5. Focus on Career Upside Potential
When planning your career, especially if aiming to do good, pay significant attention to options that, if successful, could yield extremely high impact. These “moonshot” opportunities often dominate expected value calculations and offer the greatest potential for positive change.
6. Aim for 10-50% Success Chance
For ambitious endeavors, target goals with an estimated 10% to 50% chance of success, as this range represents a healthy level of risk-taking. This avoids both unrealistically low probabilities that are hard to motivate for and overly safe options that limit potential impact.
7. Separate Calibration from Motivation
Cultivate the ability to be realistic about low probabilities of success (well-calibrated) while simultaneously maintaining high motivation and effort. This psychological separation allows you to commit fully to ambitious projects despite acknowledging their inherent difficulty.
8. Use Expected Value for Decisions
Employ expected value calculations (probability times outcome) as a primary tool for making decisions, especially in career choices and other significant life commitments involving uncertainty. This method provides a rational framework for evaluating potential outcomes.
9. Practice Probability Assignment Daily
Regularly practice estimating probabilities for everyday events to hone your mind and improve the calibration of your beliefs. This skill is invaluable for better decision-making, particularly in situations where precise statistical data is unavailable.
10. Caution with Extreme EV Calculations
Be wary of applying expected value calculations to situations involving extremely minuscule probabilities paired with astronomically large outcomes (e.g., Pascal’s mugging scenarios). In such extreme cases, the calculation can become practically unreasonable, suggesting a need for a pragmatic floor on probability.
11. Advocate for Future Generations’ Rights
Consider future generations as a disenfranchised group whose well-being is entirely dependent on current actions, similar to historical movements for other disadvantaged groups. This perspective highlights the responsibility to safeguard their potential lives and prevent future suffering, such as from climate change.
12. Preserve Humanity for Atonement
Recognize that the continued existence of humanity is a prerequisite for atoning for past injustices and historical wrongs. Extinction would permanently close the door on the possibility of rectifying these moral debts.
13. Embrace Moral Uncertainty
Acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in finding objective moral truth, given centuries of philosophical debate, and assign credence to diverse ethical perspectives. This approach allows for a more robust and flexible ethical framework, integrating insights from utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics.
14. Foster Community Effort & Reward
Build and participate in communities that reward the effort and attempt at ambitious, risky endeavors, rather than solely focusing on successful outcomes. This supportive environment encourages individuals to take valuable moonshot risks for the collective good without fear of being devalued for failure.
15. Fund Small, “Kooky” High-Impact Ideas
As an individual donor, consider providing small grants for unconventional ideas that could have high impact but are often overlooked by larger funders due to their scale. These “kooky” projects can be high expected value bets, especially when you have unique insights.
16. Leverage Private Information in Funding
When making funding decisions, particularly for smaller projects, prioritize those where you possess unique, private information about the project, the individuals involved, or their specific needs and timelines. This allows you to identify high-potential opportunities that larger, more distant funders might miss.
17. Utilize 80,000 Hours Advising
Apply for free one-on-one career advising from 80,000 Hours if you are interested in exploring high-impact career options, regardless of your current stage. This service provides guidance, job suggestions, and funding opportunities to help you maximize your positive impact.
7 Key Quotes
I think the thing that we can fall back on is it does just seem like a practical and useful thing to be using in like the vast majority of cases that we're going to be bumping into in our day-to-day lives.
Habiba Islam
I think in terms of everyday life, I think the Bayesian account is much more useful because the frequentist account is just too limited.
Spencer Greenberg
It's hard to think of someone more disenfranchised than someone who literally doesn't exist yet.
Spencer Greenberg
I think ultimately, you know, maybe particularly if you're part of this kind of effective altruism community, there have been and you're trying to do good there, there have been a bunch of people who've actually been just like extraordinarily successful so far. And actually, maybe that should just update us that actually taking some of these like big bets is actually like very worth doing.
Habiba Islam
I think that is one of the appeals of utilitarianism that doesn't get talked about enough, which is just that even if people have lots of other values, which they tend to, almost everyone does care about reducing suffering and increasing well being, right?
Spencer Greenberg
I think I want to see more of these like justice framings discussed more.
Habiba Islam
I think I possibly am not as good a fit for like an entrepreneurial type mindset with this, like, like strong belief in like my own product and this like, this sort of like huge amounts of energy to kind of like believe in it and make it work.
Habiba Islam