Bringing conspiracy theorists back from the brink (with Jesse Richardson)
Spencer Greenberg and Jesse Richardson discuss conspiratorial thinking and intellectual humility, exploring why people believe conspiracies and how to foster critical thinking. They emphasize shifting from binary to probabilistic thinking, prioritizing emotional connection over pure facts, and cultivating intellectual humility to navigate complex information.
Deep Dive Analysis
21 Topic Outline
Conspiracy Theories: Prevalence and Societal Role
Differentiating True Conspiracies from 'Conspiracy Theories'
The Conspiracy Test: A Gamified Approach to Skepticism
Research on How Minds Change and Probabilistic Thinking
Ineffectiveness of Debunking with Facts and Logic
Maintaining Connection and Planting Seeds of Doubt
Target Audience for The Conspiracy Test: The Conspiracy Curious
Motivations Behind Conspiracy Theory Beliefs
Antisemitism and Conspiracy Theories
Evaluating the 'Number of Co-Conspirators' Heuristic
The Complexity of Topics like UFOs and Epistemic Doubt
Defining Intellectual Humility
The Value of Giving Opinions and Admitting When Wrong
Motivated Reasoning and Changing Motivations
Cognitive Biases and Societal Harm
Understanding Societal Divisions and Bad Actors
Distinguishing Knowledge from Wisdom
Promoting Wisdom to Combat Epistemic Crisis
Adversarial vs. Collaborative Approaches to Disagreement
Education Reform vs. Culture Change for Critical Thinking
Advice on Finding a Meditation Method
6 Key Concepts
Probabilistic Thinking
This is a mindset shift from binary (true/false, right/wrong) thinking to evaluating things on a scale of probability or confidence. It allows for more nuanced understanding and makes individuals more receptive to changing their minds, as it introduces liquidity to beliefs.
Deep Canvassing
A research-backed process for engaging with people to help them soften entrenched beliefs and become more open to changing their minds. It involves building rapport, actively listening to concerns, and sharing personal perspectives in a non-adversarial manner.
Curse of Knowledge Bias
A cognitive bias where an individual, once possessing certain knowledge, finds it difficult to imagine or understand what it's like not to have that knowledge. This bias is particularly relevant in teaching, as it can lead to overestimating others' prior understanding.
Intellectual Humility
A baseline mindset characterized by the acknowledgment that one might be wrong about things. It involves approaching topics with a 'scout mindset'—impartially seeking truth and being curious, rather than being overly confident or defensive about one's existing beliefs.
Scout Mindset
A mental approach focused on curiosity and a genuine desire to understand what is truly happening, seeking truth impartially rather than trying to defend or confirm existing beliefs. This mindset prioritizes seeing the world as it is, not as one wishes it to be.
Wisdom
Defined as understanding the 'how and why' behind something, enabling discernment beyond mere factual knowledge. It represents context-independent knowledge, allowing one to apply underlying principles to various situations rather than just recalling rote facts.
16 Questions Answered
Research suggests the overall prevalence of conspiracy theories and belief in them hasn't significantly shifted historically, though social media has amplified the traction of some recent conjectures, leading to more doubt and 'muddying the epistemic waters'.
It's a spectrum rather than a binary. Actual conspiracies (like COINTELPRO or Watergate) are backed by reliable evidence, while 'conspiracy theories' range from those with lingering questions to unequivocally false ones, often with dangerous or anti-Semitic roots.
Building rapport, listening to their concerns, and introducing probabilistic thinking (shifting from binary to scaled confidence) can make people more receptive to changing their minds, as demonstrated by deep canvassing research.
Motivations are multifaceted, including dark triad personality traits (Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopathy), a desire for control and understanding in a world where they feel disempowered, and the need for a tribe or social connection that validates their worldview.
Antisemitism has historical roots, fueled by xenophobic in-group/out-group motivators. Additionally, the intellectual and societal accomplishments of Jewish people can be twisted into anti-elite narratives, making them targets for blame and conspiratorial thinking.
It's a useful probabilistic consideration: the larger the number of people required to keep a secret, the harder it generally is. However, it's not absolute, as tight-knit groups or national security classifications can enable many people to keep secrets for extended periods.
It's important to embrace intellectual humility and accept that for many complex topics, full access to clarifying information is unavailable, leading to the uncomfortable but rational conclusion of 'I just don't know'.
Giving opinions, especially when flagging confidence levels, is valuable for social reasoning. It allows ideas to be stress-tested, helps individuals learn when they are wrong, and fosters a collaborative search for truth among friends, without necessarily lowering one's status if mistakes are graciously admitted.
By understanding that all reasoning is motivated by our existing priors, we can consciously shift those motivations towards curiosity and a truth-seeking mindset. This creates a self-regulating system that allows for updating priors, gaining deeper understanding, and becoming wiser over time.
Confirmation bias is arguably the most harmful, as it underpins motivated reasoning and reinforces existing beliefs, making it difficult for individuals to engage with or accept contradictory evidence.
The curse of knowledge bias, which makes it difficult for someone who understands a concept to recall what it was like not to understand it, is important for effective teaching and clear communication.
The two sides have a lot in common; often, perceived divisions are due to misunderstandings and 'identity stacking,' amplified by sensational narratives rather than intractable ontological differences.
While a small number of bad-faith, narcissistic sociopaths have a disproportionate influence, many problems stem from a larger group of people who are confused, angry, or feel wronged, often misrepresented by sensational media narratives that exaggerate tribalistic differences.
Promoting wisdom, defined as understanding the 'how and why' of things, fosters deeper understanding rather than just pushing specific knowledge or worldviews. This approach is more effective in a democracy, leading to more understanding and better societal function.
An adversarial approach can be advisable in public forums to call out charlatans or factually inaccurate claims, stress-test ideas, and present counterarguments. However, it is counterproductive in one-on-one conversations aimed at building rapport and understanding.
While education reform is crucial and badly needed, culture change is considered more urgent and potentially faster. Focusing on the social and emotional aspects of motivation can shift culture profoundly and quickly, laying the groundwork for critical thinking tools.
26 Actionable Insights
1. Cultivate Intellectual Humility
Adopt the baseline mindset that you might be wrong about things, as this is the core of critical thinking and allows for continuous learning and updating of beliefs.
2. Adopt Probabilistic Thinking
Shift from binary (true/false, right/wrong) thinking to a probabilistic mindset, which profoundly changes how you evaluate information and allows for more nuanced understanding.
3. Prioritize Emotional & Social Connection
Recognize that humans are primarily emotional and social creatures; prioritize building rapport, listening, and planting seeds of doubt with kindness and connection over direct rational persuasion to change minds.
4. Shift to Truth-Seeking Motivation
Recognize that all reasoning is motivated by prior beliefs and biases, and actively shift your motivation towards curiosity and truth-seeking to enable continuous learning and deeper understanding.
5. Embrace a Scout Mindset
Approach topics with a ‘scout mindset,’ aiming to understand things impartially, be truth-seeking, and curious about what’s truly happening, rather than being overly confident in your existing beliefs.
6. Maintain Connection with Believers
If a loved one is deep in a conspiracy theory, maintain social connection, let them know you’re on their side, and gently plant seeds of doubt without attacking their beliefs to facilitate their own mind-changing process.
7. Facilitate Non-Adversarial Mind Change
When trying to help others change their minds, use non-adversarial approaches that avoid making them defensive and instead encourage good faith engagement.
8. Build Rapport, Listen to Understand
To help people soften their beliefs and become more receptive to changing their minds, build rapport and genuinely listen to their concerns, fostering a collaborative understanding.
9. Recognize Gradual Mind Change
Understand that minds change iteratively and slowly over time, not in a single setting, so approach discussions with patience and a long-term perspective.
10. Avoid Fact-Only Debunking
Do not attempt to debunk deeply held beliefs with facts and logic alone, as this is often ineffective due to human delusion and motivated reasoning.
11. Prioritize Wisdom Over Knowledge
Strive for wisdom, which is understanding the ‘how and why’ of things, enabling discernment and a self-regulating system that promotes deeper understanding, especially on contentious issues.
12. Contextualize Adversarial Approach
Differentiate between public forums, where calling out factual inaccuracies can be advisable, and one-on-one conversations, where an adversarial approach is counterproductive and creates more polarization.
13. Flag Confidence Levels
When expressing opinions, clearly state your level of confidence or uncertainty, as this helps others understand your position and makes it more acceptable to share non-expert views.
14. Admit Wrongness Graciously
When corrected or proven wrong, admit it graciously and update your views, as this elevates your status and demonstrates integrity and a commitment to truth.
15. Engage in Group Reasoning
Participate in group discussions and debates with friends in good faith, as collective reasoning helps identify biases and leads to better understanding than individual thought.
16. Question Power Structures
Actively question and hold powerful entities like pharmaceutical companies or governments to account, as this is a crucial part of the democratic process and can provide value.
17. Evaluate Conspiracies on a Scale
Instead of binary true/false thinking, evaluate conspiracy theories on a nuanced scale, recognizing that reality is complex and not all theories are equally valid or dangerous.
18. Practice Metacognitive Thinking
Engage in metacognitive thinking about your beliefs, allowing you to critically investigate and evaluate your own thoughts rather than feeling defensive.
19. Understand Underlying Motivations
Recognize that conspiracy beliefs often stem from feelings of disempowerment, a desire for control or understanding, or a need to externalize blame, rather than purely rational assessment.
20. Recognize Status as a Driver
Understand that perceived threats to social status are powerful emotional and psychological drivers of behavior, often unconsciously influencing beliefs and actions, including susceptibility to conspiracy theories.
21. Probabilistically Assess Secret-Keeping
When evaluating a conspiracy, consider probabilistically how many people would need to keep the secret and their motivation to remain silent, rather than using it as an absolute rule.
22. Beware Confirmation Bias
Be aware of confirmation bias, as it is a fundamental bias that drives motivated reasoning and can significantly distort your perception of information.
23. Understand Curse of Knowledge
Recognize the ‘curse of knowledge’ bias, where your own understanding makes it difficult to remember what it’s like not to know something, improving your ability to teach and communicate effectively.
24. Foster Good Faith Relationships
Engage in good faith relationships and conversations with people holding different political beliefs, as this often reveals misunderstandings rather than intractable differences.
25. Address Bad Incentives
Recognize that many societal problems stem from bad incentive structures and feedback loops, rather than solely from a small number of malevolent actors.
26. Prioritize Culture Change
While education reform is important, prioritize efforts on culture change, as resonant and powerful ideas can shift culture more quickly and profoundly than long-term educational reforms.
5 Key Quotes
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are so sure of themselves, yet wiser people so full of doubt.
Bertrand Russell (quoted by Jesse Richardson)
We are emotional and social creatures first, rational creatures very much second in that sequence.
Jesse Richardson
Truth springs from argument amongst friends.
David Hume (quoted by Jesse Richardson)
It's not about keeping your mouth shut and not engaging in, you know, debate or thinking about things or, you know, collaborative social reasoning or anything like that. It's more about just not being too cocky and confident in our own beliefs to think that we have access to the absolute truth.
Jesse Richardson
Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, and wisdom is not putting it in your fruit salad. And philosophy is wondering whether ketchup is therefore technically a smoothie.
Jesse Richardson
3 Protocols
The Conspiracy Test Process
Jesse Richardson- Choose a conspiracy theory that you think *might* be true.
- Be guided through an immersive experience by a deep state Illuminati alien lizard named Captain Zardulu.
- Engage in metacognitive thinking about the chosen conspiracy theory, rather than being told it's false.
- Set a baseline skepticism for the particular conspiracy theory.
- Subject yourself to a series of steps, such as considering how many people would need to be in on the conspiracy for it to be true.
- Update your skepticism on a probabilistic scale as you go along.
How to Engage with Someone Believing a Conspiracy Theory (Family/Friend)
Jesse Richardson- Maintain a connection with them, letting them know you are still on their side ('shoulder to shoulder rather than nose to nose').
- Be a voice of reason that plants subtle and kind seeds of doubt without attacking their beliefs.
- Listen to them and try to understand where they are coming from.
- If it's someone you care about, invest time to say, 'I've fact-checked this, and it doesn't make sense to me. I can see where you're coming from, but these are the reasons it doesn't hold water for me.'
- Facilitate them changing their mind on their own terms, rather than you attacking them and causing disconnection.
General Approach to Testing a Meditation Method
Spencer Greenberg- Choose a meditation method to experiment with.
- Give each chosen method a real shot, for example, by trying it for an hour a day for a couple of weeks.
- Observe if you find it helpful.