Crumbling institutions, culture wars, and the dismissal economy (with Ashley Hodgson)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Ashley Hodgson about the "new enlightenment" for revitalizing institutions in epistemic, economic, and governance realms. They discuss issues like salience in truth-seeking, metric depreciation, and the "dismissal economy."
Deep Dive Analysis
15 Topic Outline
Introduction to the New Enlightenment
Defining and Improving Epistemics
Understanding Salience in Information Processing
Depreciation of Economic Institutions and Metrics
Addressing Multipolar Traps with Game Theory
Role of DAOs and Blockchain in Governance
Prioritizing Epistemics to Build Trust
Contempt as a Barrier to Societal Progress
Rethinking Algorithm Incentives for Better Discourse
The Dismissal Economy and Information Overload
Dealing with Imbalanced Engagement on Topics
Proposing an Adversarial Academic Model
Critiquing Current Academic Peer Review
The Social Dynamics of Scientific Fields
Call for Experimentation and Solutions
8 Key Concepts
New Enlightenment
An analogy for revitalizing institutions by focusing on solutions rather than just failures, across economic, governance, and epistemic realms, similar to the original Enlightenment's impact in the 1600s and 1700s.
Epistemics
The study of how we know what is true, valid, and legitimate, particularly in the context of generating knowledge and truth within institutions like academia and journalism.
Salience
The importance or weight given to different pieces of evidence when applying knowledge to a problem. Manipulation often occurs by overemphasizing certain true facts while downplaying others, leading to a biased viewpoint despite accurate individual facts.
Goodhart's Law
The principle that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. This occurs because people will game the metric to achieve the target rather than genuinely improve the underlying performance it was intended to measure.
Economic Institutions Depreciation
A process where the effectiveness of economic systems declines as mechanisms designed to serve the population are gamed over time, leading to a concentration of power and a shift from an ideal of 'one person, one vote' in market influence to 'one dollar, one vote'.
Multipolar Trap
A situation where individual powerful entities (like corporations) are incentivized to engage in harmful actions (e.g., creating addictive products) to remain competitive, even if a collectively beneficial alternative exists but is not profitable in the current market structure.
Dismissal Economy
An environment of information overload where people seek psychologically satisfying ways to quickly dismiss information, often by discrediting sources or arguments. This can prevent accurate perception and harm relationships by shutting down conversation.
Adversarial Academic Model
A proposed research model, inspired by legal courts, where dedicated teams argue for and against a hypothesis, with a neutral arbiter evaluating the arguments to determine which side prevails. This aims to create stronger incentives for rigorous attempts to disprove theories than current peer review.
9 Questions Answered
It's an analogy for revitalizing societal institutions by focusing on solutions in the economic, governance, and epistemic realms, rather than just their failures, drawing parallels to the original Enlightenment.
Improving epistemics involves shifting focus from merely validating facts to understanding and managing 'salience,' which is how we weigh the importance of different pieces of true information when solving real-world problems.
This depreciation is driven by systems' inability to keep pace with problem generation, the gaming of metrics (Goodhart's Law), and powerful entities using the system to channel upward mobility pathways for their own benefit.
Multipolar traps occur when powerful entities are incentivized to do harmful things (e.g., create addictive products) to stay competitive, even if it's detrimental to users, because non-addictive, healthier alternatives might not be profitable.
It is rational to distrust a group that holds you in contempt, especially if they have power, because human groups can creatively harm those they dislike, and contempt can translate into actions that undermine trust or rights.
By designing online spaces and algorithms that incentivize and uplift individuals who are skilled at understanding and communicating respectfully across differences, making empathy and open-mindedness more salient than conflict.
The dismissal economy describes how, due to information overload, people seek psychologically satisfying ways to quickly dismiss information (e.g., 'that source is biased'), which can prevent accurate perception and harm relationships by shutting down conversation.
A better approach is to clearly define what is 'in your wheelhouse' and what is not, acknowledging that some information is important but you lack the time to investigate, rather than pretending to logically invalidate it.
This model, akin to legal courts, would fund dedicated teams to argue for and against a hypothesis, with a neutral arbiter to evaluate arguments, creating stronger incentives for rigorous attempts to disprove theories than current peer review.
14 Actionable Insights
1. Revitalize Institutions: Focus Solutions
When encountering institutional problems like mistrust or capture, shift your focus from dwelling on the issues to actively generating and experimenting with potential solutions. This approach encourages innovative thinking and collaboration to restructure institutions.
2. Improve Epistemics: Address Salience
Recognize that information manipulation often occurs by over-emphasizing certain true facts (salience) rather than presenting false information. Strive to understand how different pieces of evidence are weighed and how to compile diverse perspectives to form an accurate view.
3. Counteract Self-Deception in Decisions
Be aware of the natural human tendency to overweigh positive effects and underweigh negative effects of your own decisions, especially when in power. Actively seek to counterbalance this psychological bias, potentially by involving diverse perspectives or critical self-reflection.
4. Redesign Online Incentives for Empathy
Advocate for or create online platforms and algorithms that reward and uplift individuals who excel at understanding and communicating across differences. This can help reduce societal contempt and foster trust by highlighting empathetic voices, making cross-cultural understanding a developed taste.
5. Manage Information Overload with Boundaries
Instead of dismissing information with seemingly logical but often biased rationalizations, explicitly tell yourself ’that’s not in my wheelhouse’ for topics you cannot genuinely investigate. Establish clear boundaries around what you will pay attention to, acknowledging other issues may be important but not your current focus.
6. Listen to Friends’ Issues
When a friend brings up a topic they care deeply about, especially if they feel personally involved or pained by it, listen to them even if it’s not ‘in your wheelhouse.’ Acknowledge their issue and pain, as dismissing it can hurt relationships, without necessarily researching everything on the topic.
7. Address Contempt, Rebuild Trust
Recognize that people rationally distrust groups or institutions they perceive as holding them in contempt, especially if those groups hold power. To rebuild trust and enable progress, it is crucial to address and mitigate the underlying contempt.
8. Rejigger Economic Investment Mechanisms
Consider new mechanisms for investment in infrastructure, especially in digital industries, that move beyond a ‘one dollar, one vote’ system. Explore models where investment decisions are influenced by broader public needs (e.g., ‘one person, one vote’ scenarios or conditional algorithms) rather than solely financial returns.
9. Utilize Adversarial Academic Models
Experiment with an adversarial academic model, similar to legal courts, where dedicated teams argue for and against a position, and a neutral party arbitrates based on agreed-upon techniques. This could improve truth-seeking, especially for imbalanced issues, by incentivizing rigorous attempts to disprove theories.
10. Be Skeptical of Gamed Metrics
Be aware that metrics used to measure success or performance in systems (e.g., college admissions, corporate performance) can depreciate over time as people learn to game them. Recognize that this gaming can lead to a misallocation of power and opportunity within institutions.
11. Recognize Multipolar Traps in Markets
Understand that powerful entities in markets can face ‘multipolar traps’ or ‘multiplayer prisoners dilemmas,’ where there’s an incentive to do harmful things (e.g., creating addictive social media) to stay competitive. Creative game theory algorithms and institutional redesigns are needed to solve these systemic issues.
12. Be Wary of Algorithms
Be aware that online algorithms may be designed to maximize profit by making users more anxious and manipulable, as insecurity can increase responsiveness to ads. This can make users more reactive to negative content and less open to nuanced discussions, so exercise caution in your online engagement.
13. Exercise Caution with New Technologies
Approach new technologies like DAOs with a blend of hope and skepticism, recognizing that while they offer promise for new governance models, they are in early stages. Be aware of potential pitfalls like projects not finishing, hype machines, or security vulnerabilities, and understand that a robust social and value-based community layer is often needed for success.
14. Seek Balanced Information on Topics
When researching topics where one side is highly engaged with many arguments and the other is less developed, actively seek out or encourage the development of stronger counter-arguments. This helps in accurately assessing the issue rather than being swayed by the sheer volume of information from one perspective.
5 Key Quotes
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
Spencer Greenberg
If you don't solve the contempt problem, I don't think you can actually solve the rest of it.
Ashley Hodgson
I think it's rational to distrust someone who holds you in contempt or a group that holds you in contempt, especially if they have power.
Ashley Hodgson
I think the algorithms could be designed to develop that taste as well. It's just that's not profitable.
Ashley Hodgson
I think we're going to need a lot of people generating a lot of goofy ideas before we get some that stick.
Ashley Hodgson