Cults and Social Needs (with Alice Mottola)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Will Eden about using history as a problem-solving toolbox, the impact of aging on institutions and biology, and perspectives on value investing and market catalysts. They also discuss health protocols like intermittent fasting.
Deep Dive Analysis
14 Topic Outline
The Value and Relevance of Studying History
Historical Patterns of Empire Decay and Overextension
Geopolitical Power Shifts and Potential Conflicts
Institutional Sclerosis and Challenges in Governance
Democracy's Stability and Cycles of National Reinvention
Analogies Between Aging in Companies, Countries, and Bodies
Biological Mechanisms of Aging and Lifespan Extension
Promising Anti-Aging Research and Compounds
Intermittent Fasting and Hormesis for Healthspan
Rapamycin and Senolytics as Anti-Aging Interventions
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Investment Strategies
Value Investing vs. Hype-Driven Market Dynamics
Responsible Investing in the Current Economic Climate
Diversifying Portfolios with Exposure to China
7 Key Concepts
History as a Toolbox
History serves as a practical toolbox, offering past solutions and approaches to challenges that can inform current problem-solving and help anticipate future changes by distinguishing temporary world features from persistent ones.
Institutional Sclerosis
This concept describes the process where institutions, over time, become rigid due to increasing rules and procedures, leading to stagnation and inefficiency as new agencies persist and expand their missions even after their initial problems are addressed.
Gompertz Law
This law describes the hyper-exponential increase in mortality rate with age, suggesting that errors and damage accumulate in a compounding fashion within biological systems, leading to a rapid decline in health and function later in life.
Hormesis
Hormesis is the principle that certain stressors, when applied in the right way and in small amounts, can cause an adaptive response in complex systems like the human body, making them stronger and more resilient rather than causing damage.
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
The EMH posits that market prices at all times reflect the true best guess about an asset's value because a multitude of smart, full-time investors have already found and exploited any inefficiencies, making it impossible for the average investor to consistently beat the market.
Value Investing
Value investing is an investment strategy where one views a stock as the sum of its future cash flows, assessing how much they would pay to own the entire business, and often seeks companies trading below this calculated intrinsic value.
Senolytics
Senolytics are a class of drugs being developed to selectively kill senescent cells, which are cells that have stopped dividing but don't die, instead accumulating in the body with age and creating a constant inflammatory response.
7 Questions Answered
Studying history helps understand human nature, offers a toolbox of past solutions for current problems, and reveals which aspects of our world are temporary versus persistent, preparing us for profound future changes.
Empires often decay due to overextension, fiscal crises leading to debt monetization and currency debasement, and institutional sclerosis where systems become bogged down by rules and self-perpetuating agencies.
Humans age due to a hyper-exponential accumulation of errors and damage in physiological processes, the body's inability to perfectly repair itself, and the buildup of novel compounds it hasn't evolved to process.
Approaches focusing on solving aging as an engineering problem, such as dealing with long-lived byproducts in the body (like those targeted by SENS pillars) and clearing senescent cells (via senolytics), are considered most promising.
Many common anti-aging compounds, like metformin, may offer health benefits, especially in older age or for those with existing dysfunction, but they are not yet proven to provide radical lifespan extension, often mimicking calorie restriction with potential trade-offs.
The efficient market hypothesis suggests that market prices always reflect an asset's true value due to the collective intelligence of many investors; however, its truth is questioned today due to factors like hype cycles, herd behavior, and the consistent outperformance of some specialized funds.
In the current environment, a responsible long-term investor might consider looking for companies with strong fundamentals that are trading closer to their intrinsic value rather than chasing hype-driven stocks, even if it means missing out on some speculative gains.
25 Actionable Insights
1. Anticipate Profound Future Changes
Keep an open mind to solutions and be ready for the world to be profoundly different within your lifetime, as history shows how temporary and contingent current systems are.
2. Use History as Problem-Solving Toolbox
Look back at historical tools and solutions to address current societal problems, especially when existing approaches are not working effectively.
3. Understand Human Nature Via History
Study history to grasp the variability of human thought, beliefs, and experiences across different cultures and times, breaking assumptions about what is fundamental.
4. Broaden Reference Class for Unprecedented
When facing unprecedented situations, look at a wider range of historical reference classes, as history often “rhymes” and reveals timeless human lessons.
5. Prioritize Health Span Over Lifespan
Focus on interventions that improve functionality and quality of life, aiming to be healthy at an older age rather than just extending life while “falling apart.”
6. Practice Intermittent Fasting for Health
Implement intermittent fasting as a stressor to make your body stronger, potentially increasing health span and slightly increasing lifespan without sacrificing much performance.
7. Implement 16:8 Intermittent Fasting
Start with a common schedule of eating between noon and 8 PM, then fasting for 16 hours, or shorten the eating window further for more extreme benefits.
8. Consider Longer Fasts for Health
Explore multi-day fasts for health benefits, as they act as a stressor that encourages your body to utilize fat reserves. (Extreme caution advised for very long fasts).
9. Invest in Companies Near Floor
For responsible long-term investing, focus on profitable businesses with real underlying value that would not immediately go bankrupt if hype disappeared. This approach helps even if it means missing out on speculative gains.
10. Be Wary of Market Hype
Recognize that human nature is susceptible to FOMO, idolization, herd behavior, and the assumption that past trends will continue, which can drive irrational market valuations.
11. Avoid Unrealistic Returns Expectations
Understand that making 60% returns a year is not normal, as many new investors have come to believe due to recent market conditions (e.g., crypto), leading to dangerous misconceptions.
12. Recognize Challenges of Beating Market
Be aware that due to trading commissions, taxes, and the existence of highly skilled funds, the average investor is likely to underperform the market.
13. Consider Metformin for Blood Sugar
If fasting blood sugars are starting to slip (in the 90s rather than 70s/80s), Metformin might be helpful, though lifestyle changes are generally preferred. (Not medical advice).
14. Explore Mitochondrial Function Compounds
Investigate compounds that aim to improve mitochondrial function, as these are plausible ways to enhance functionality and slow aging, especially when dysfunction is present.
15. Explore Senolytics for Anti-Aging
Keep an eye on senolytics, a promising class of drugs that kill senescent cells (which cause inflammation), potentially leading to healthier and longer lives.
16. Consider Plasma Dilution for Anti-Aging
Research suggests that removing and filtering old plasma from older individuals can produce an anti-aging phenotype, which is an area of active investigation.
17. Be Wary of Institutional Creep
Understand that new government organizations often persist beyond their initial problem, taking on new missions and contributing to systemic sclerosis, making change difficult.
18. Recognize Risk of Concentrated Interests
Be aware that small, concentrated interest groups can nudge policy for large benefits, causing widespread minor pain without strong opposition.
19. Understand Need for System Reinvention
Acknowledge that complex systems like countries, similar to companies, must continually reinvent themselves to adapt to changing environments and avoid decay.
20. Avoid Telomere Lengthening Supplements
Based on the speaker’s hypothesis, telomeres might be a backup fail-safe, making lengthening supplements potentially not a good target for anti-aging.
21. Exercise Caution with Rapamycin
Understand that Rapamycin is a “dangerous and edgy” compound that profoundly stimulates the body, trading robustness for some life extension, and has significant side effects.
22. Focus on Root Causes of Aging
Advocate for and explore anti-aging approaches that tackle the fundamental engineering problems of the body, such as dealing with accumulated byproducts and errors.
23. Avoid Shorting Market Bubbles
Even when convinced of irrational prices, it’s difficult to profit from shorting bubbles due to the unpredictable timing of their collapse.
24. Diversify with International Exposure
While China is a growing economy, direct investment can be challenging; consider proxies like trading partners or raw resource flows for diversification.
25. Scrutinize International ETF Holdings
When buying ETFs for international exposure, always check their specific holdings to ensure they align with the sector or overall economy you intend to invest in, as marketing can be misleading.
6 Key Quotes
History doesn't exactly repeat, but it does rhyme.
Will Eden
No system is actually that stable.
Will Eden
What people care about isn't lifespan, but health.
Will Eden
The best fasting is the fasting that you do, rather than the fasting that you don't do.
Will Eden
You really need some plausible reason to think that you're beating what evolution could have done naturally.
Will Eden
If you're the sort of person that is driven by hype, then you will generally do well when hype is driving things... But when the trends reverse, which they will, you will be demolished.
Spencer Greenberg
1 Protocols
Intermittent Fasting Schedule
Will Eden- Start with a 16-hour fasting window and an 8-hour eating window (e.g., eat between noon and 8 PM, then no food until noon the next day).
- To go more extreme, shorten the eating window further, potentially aiming for one large meal per day (fasting 20-22 hours most days).
- Consider doing longer fasts of multiple days for additional health benefits, but exercise caution and consult a professional if you have concerns.