Death and Story-Telling (with A.J. Jacobs)

Oct 13, 2020 Episode Page ↗
Overview

Spencer Greenberg and A.J. Jacobs discuss death rituals, advocating for personalized, eco-friendly commemorations. They also explore probabilistic thinking for better decisions, intrinsic values, and the benefits and drawbacks of storytelling.

At a Glance
23 Insights
1h 9m Duration
14 Topics
6 Concepts

Deep Dive Analysis

Critique of Traditional Death Rituals and Cemeteries

Alternative Approaches to Commemorating the Dead

The Concept of 'Magic' and Human Perception

Coincidences and Misinterpretations of Probability

The Value of Recording Personal Histories and Wisdom

Probabilistic Thinking: Embracing Doubt and Updating Beliefs

Personal Application of Probabilistic Thinking and Prediction Tracking

Defining and Debating Intrinsic Values and Utilitarianism

Challenging Utilitarianism: Equality, Preferences, and Dystopian Scenarios

Reconciling Utilitarianism with Human Nature and Valuism

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Storytelling

Drawbacks of Storytelling: Individual Heroes vs. Teamwork

Drawbacks of Storytelling: Misleading Character-Driven Narratives

Drawbacks of Storytelling: Unrealistic Happy Endings

Probabilistic Thinking

A way of thinking that involves assigning percentages to beliefs and adjusting them based on evidence, rather than holding black-and-white convictions. It encourages doubt and skepticism, aligning with Bayesian principles, and helps manage expectations in daily life.

Bayesian Thinking

A mathematical method for updating beliefs based on new evidence. It involves asking how many times more likely evidence is to occur if a hypothesis is true compared to if it's not true, and then multiplying that ratio by the prior odds of the hypothesis to get new, updated odds.

Intrinsic Values

Things that people value for their own sake, not merely as a means to other ends. Examples include pleasure, truth, or respecting authority, as opposed to instrumental values like money, which are valued only for what they can achieve.

Utilitarianism (Well-beingism)

A philosophical stance, rebranded by A.J. Jacobs as 'well-beingism' or 'happinessism,' that posits the only intrinsic value is positive mental states for everyone and avoiding suffering. The goal is to decrease suffering and increase happiness globally, though acknowledging human nature's influence on individual preferences like family.

Valuism

A belief system where individuals discover their intrinsic values through careful introspection, similar to a smart robot figuring out its programming. Once these values are identified, the goal is to create as much of them as possible, recognizing that these values are shaped by evolution and culture.

Is-Ought Divide

The philosophical idea that one cannot logically derive 'ought' (what should be) from 'is' (what is). This suggests that moral statements or preferences cannot be objectively proven in the same way factual statements can, implying that ethical frameworks often rely on accepted axioms or preferences.

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What are some more meaningful and ethical ways to commemorate the dead than traditional burial?

Instead of burying bodies in cemeteries, alternatives include commissioning a book or video about the person, planting a tree in their honor (potentially using the body as fertilizer), or donating organs or the body to science for medical training.

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Why is it useful to adopt probabilistic thinking in everyday life?

Probabilistic thinking helps manage expectations and reduces frustration by acknowledging uncertainty, acts as a hedge against fundamentalism by encouraging adjustment to evidence, and aligns with how evidence actually works, leading to more accurate beliefs.

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How can one improve their ability to make accurate probabilistic predictions?

One can track their predictions over time, assigning probabilities to events and then comparing these probabilities to actual outcomes to see how calibrated their judgment is. Tools like 'Prediction Book' or games like 'Calibrate Your Judgment' can help.

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What is the core idea behind utilitarianism (or 'well-beingism') according to A.J. Jacobs?

A.J. Jacobs believes the only intrinsic value is positive mental states for everyone and avoiding suffering, striving to decrease suffering and increase happiness globally, though acknowledging human nature's influence on preferences like family.

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What are the main drawbacks of storytelling, despite its natural appeal to humans?

Storytelling can be problematic because false stories are often stickier and more entertaining than truth, it tends to focus on individuals over teamwork, it often relies on character-driven narratives with clear villains that misrepresent complex problems, and it promotes unrealistic expectations with an overemphasis on happy endings.

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Why is the focus on individual heroes in stories potentially harmful?

Stories often highlight lone heroes (like Jonas Salk or Paul Revere), which is inaccurate as most breakthroughs involve teamwork. This can mislead people into seeking individual glory rather than valuing cooperation and collective effort, which are crucial for solving massive problems.

1. Embrace Probabilistic Thinking

Cultivate a mindset of doubt and skepticism, thinking in probabilities rather than certainties, as this is crucial for intelligent decision-making and adapting to new evidence.

2. Hold Shallow-Seated Beliefs

Treat most beliefs as shallow-seated and open to revision based on new evidence, reserving deep-seated conviction only for fundamental values like reducing suffering and increasing happiness.

3. Adjust Beliefs to Evidence

View ‘flip-flopping’ as a positive trait, actively adjusting your beliefs and positions when presented with new or compelling evidence, aligning with Bayesian thinking.

4. Introspect to Discover Values

Engage in careful introspection to identify your true intrinsic values—those things you care about for their own sake—and then strive to maximize them in your life.

5. Weigh Certainty & Consequences

When making decisions, especially on complex issues like medical advice or climate change, evaluate the percentage of your certainty against the potential consequences of acting or not acting.

6. Manage Expectations Probabilistically

Apply probabilistic thinking to daily events, like traffic lights, to manage expectations; this reduces frustration when outcomes don’t align with a 100% certainty.

7. Build Stories from Evidence

When communicating or understanding narratives, prioritize starting with evidence and then constructing a story around it, rather than creating a story and seeking evidence to fit it.

8. Practice Gratitude & Reframing

Actively practice gratitude for everyday things and reframe mundane moments, like waiting in line, by appreciating simple details to enhance overall happiness.

9. Appreciate Simple Joys

Cultivate happiness in real life by finding ways to appreciate what you already have and enjoying the simple, often overlooked, aspects of daily existence.

10. Conduct Life Story Interviews

Interview loved ones, especially older family members or those nearing the end of their lives, about their childhood, views, and wisdom to create a meaningful legacy and gain insights.

11. Plan Eco-Friendly Body Disposal

Consider and plan for environmentally sound methods of body disposal, such as mushroom suits or green liquid processes, rather than traditional burials.

12. Donate Organs to Science

Consider donating your organs to science or for medical training, as this provides a beneficial use for your body after death.

13. Commission Commemorative Media

Instead of traditional burial costs, commission a book or video about a deceased person to create a lasting and meaningful way to remember them.

14. Plant a Commemorative Tree

Honor someone’s life by planting a tree in their name, potentially using their body as fertilizer, as a living memorial to visit.

15. Create Multimedia Memorial Displays

Advocate for or create modern memorial spaces that incorporate multimedia displays, holograms, or interactive videos to share life advice and memories of the deceased.

16. Assign Percentages to Beliefs

Get into the habit of assigning a percentage of certainty to your beliefs, even for seemingly obvious facts, as a hedge against fundamentalism.

17. Track Predictions for Calibration

Use tools like Prediction Book or ‘Calibrate Your Judgment’ to track your probabilistic predictions and improve your accuracy over time.

18. Downgrade Beliefs with Evidence

Be prepared to slightly downgrade even strongly held beliefs when presented with small pieces of counter-evidence, recognizing that optimal thinking involves constant, subtle adjustments.

19. Accept Inherent Uncertainty

Understand that 100% certainty is generally unattainable for most beliefs, and strive for increasing levels of confidence rather than absolute conviction.

20. Avoid Fundamentalist Thinking

Use probabilistic thinking as a safeguard against fundamentalism, recognizing that rigid, 100% certain beliefs can be dangerous and lead to harmful outcomes.

21. Take Intrinsic Values Test

Utilize the ‘Intrinsic Values Test’ on ClearerThinking.org to help identify and understand your personal intrinsic values.

22. Appreciate ‘Boring’ Stories

Actively work to recalibrate your brain to find ‘boring’ stories—those without clear villains or dramatic individual heroes—interesting, as they often reflect complex realities.

23. Question Fictional Endings

When consuming fiction, reflect on what happens after the ‘happy ending’ to develop a more realistic understanding of life’s ongoing challenges and complexities.

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.

Bertrand Russell (attributed by A.J. Jacobs)

Flip-flopping is a good thing. You should adjust to the evidence.

A.J. Jacobs

If you have a little bit of evidence against a strong belief, you should downgrade it a little bit.

Spencer Greenberg

I don't think there's any particular meaning, intrinsic meaning or purpose for the universe. So, to me, the only purpose, the only thing that matters is the sentient beings having these positive mental experiences.

A.J. Jacobs

A false story is stickier. It's easier to tell. It's more entertaining than the truth.

A.J. Jacobs

Embrace the boring stories. Let's, like, let's, like, try to recalibrate our brains so that we find boring stories interesting.

A.J. Jacobs

Commemorating a Life through Video Interviews (Legacy Project)

Spencer Greenberg
  1. Discover a set of questions designed for someone who isn't going to be alive for much longer.
  2. Conduct a series of video interviews, asking these questions and having the person answer them.
105
Number of predictions tracked by Spencer Greenberg On the website Prediction Book
45%
Accuracy of Spencer Greenberg's 50% confident predictions Percentage of predictions that came true
64%
Accuracy of Spencer Greenberg's 60% confident predictions Percentage of predictions that came true
71%
Accuracy of Spencer Greenberg's 70% confident predictions Percentage of predictions that came true
85%
Accuracy of Spencer Greenberg's 80% confident predictions Percentage of predictions that came true
88%
Accuracy of Spencer Greenberg's 90% confident predictions Percentage of predictions that came true
Less than 1,000
Estimated number of people killed by serial killers in the U.S. annually Compared to other causes of death
100,000
Estimated number of people dying from hospital errors annually Pre-coronavirus statistic, significantly higher than serial killer deaths