Decision-making and play-testing (with Dan Epstein)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Dan Epstein about finding the right approach, energy, and expertise for good decision-making. They discuss evaluating how we spend our time and leveraging values for better choices.
Deep Dive Analysis
13 Topic Outline
Recognizing Unconscious Decisions and Default Behaviors
Leveraging Values for Better Decision-Making
Values in Healthcare and End-of-Life Decisions
The Concept of Playtesting Yourself for Self-Improvement
Strategies for Giving and Receiving Feedback Effectively
Allocating Energy to Decisions: When to Engage or Disengage
Practicing Decision-Making and Learning from Past Choices
Understanding and Designing Tabletop Exercises
Simulating Complex Scenarios with Tabletop Exercises
Bringing Others into Decision-Making: Mentors and Brains Trusts
Underutilized Aspects of Games for Learning and Simulation
Challenges in Designing Educational Games and Gamification
Strategic Allocation of Time Across Multiple Career Paths
5 Key Concepts
Hidden Decisions
These are choices people make without realizing they are making them, often based on prior habits, defaults, or the path of least resistance. Recognizing these hidden decisions is the first step to improving overall decision-making skills.
Playtesting Yourself
This concept, derived from game design, involves viewing oneself as a 'product' to be continually tested and improved. It encourages accepting feedback and criticism as 'playtester comments' to tweak and enhance personal performance and behavior in a less emotional way.
Feedback Loops
Essential for learning and improvement, feedback loops involve receiving information about the outcomes of one's actions and using that information to adjust future behavior. Tightening these loops, especially in a 'playtesting' context, accelerates learning.
Tabletop Exercising
A simulation tool used to model complex, dynamic situations with multiple stakeholders to understand potential outcomes and dynamics. It involves simplifying a real-world scenario into a playable game-like model to explore choices, consequences, and learn from hypothetical situations.
Moloch Problem
A societal problem where individuals or groups, despite acting rationally in their own self-interest, collectively create an undesirable or suboptimal outcome for everyone. It highlights the difficulty of coordination when incentives are not aligned, leading to a 'race to the bottom'.
11 Questions Answered
Many people make decisions based on prior habits or default routines, such as stopping at McDonald's on the way home, without consciously recognizing they have a choice about what to eat.
Values are crucial in thorny decisions where there's no obvious 'right' answer, especially when different values are in conflict. Understanding and prioritizing one's values helps clarify the problem and guide choices that align with what truly matters to an individual.
Patient values are paramount because the medically 'preferred' option may not align with what the patient truly wants. Communicating these values, ideally through an advanced care directive, prevents family conflict and ensures decisions reflect the patient's wishes, even in critical situations.
One can improve by adopting the 'playtesting yourself' mindset, viewing feedback as an opportunity to tweak and improve, rather than taking it emotionally. Imagining the benefit of knowing about a flaw to fix it, rather than remaining unaware, can also help.
A good strategy is to give positive feedback regularly, so that when negative feedback is occasionally given, it lands less harshly. Framing feedback productively, explaining what needs to change, why, and what positive outcomes could result, is also important.
The first step is situational awareness: recognizing when you're ruminating on something inconsequential. Then, mentally 'stop' and decide if the decision truly warrants that energy; if not, make a choice and move on, as any decision in such a case is likely good.
Practicing involves reflecting on past decisions, keeping a 'decision diary' to log context and mood, and monitoring how choices align with outcomes. Tools like making predictions, case studies, and simulations (like tabletop exercises) also help build decision-making skills.
Games are unique because they involve agency, allowing players to make choices and see direct consequences, closing feedback loops. They are not bounded by physics or time, can simulate long-term events quickly, and offer a near-zero risk sandbox for experimentation and learning.
Educational games often fail because their designers don't clearly define the true aim or purpose of the game, leading to rules that don't effectively support the educational goal. Additionally, they often lack sufficient early playtesting to ensure the game is engaging and fun for players.
To avoid pitfalls, one must focus on the true aim of the behavior change, not just the metrics. If points and leaderboards are used, ensure they measure the desired outcome rather than just optimizing for the points themselves, and consider the players' actual motivations.
A 'portfolio career' approach, similar to a barbell strategy in investing, can be effective: allocating time to pursuits with assured, positive returns (e.g., medical work) alongside those with low likelihood but potentially high impact (e.g., decision-making projects). This provides balance, diverse perspective, and sustainability.
19 Actionable Insights
1. Clarify Personal Values
Understand what your true values are and which ones mean more to you, especially when values conflict. Making decisions aligned with your values is often the best approach.
2. Cultivate Decision Awareness
Practice situational awareness to recognize when you are making decisions, rather than defaulting to habits. This allows you to intervene and consciously choose your actions.
3. Establish Advanced Care Directive
Create an advanced care directive to clearly outline your wishes for medical treatment and end-of-life care. This prevents family conflict and ensures your values guide crucial decisions.
4. Embrace “Playtesting Yourself”
Adopt the ‘playtesting yourself’ mindset, viewing feedback and criticism as opportunities to tweak and improve. This positive lens helps you close feedback loops and strategically enhance yourself.
5. Frame Feedback as Growth
View feedback as an opportunity to become even better, rather than a sign of inadequacy. This mindset helps separate emotional responses from rational improvement.
6. Provide Frequent Positive Feedback
Regularly give positive feedback to others so that occasional negative feedback is received less harshly. This builds relationships and encourages desired behaviors.
7. Apply Mental Stop Sign
When ruminating on minor decisions, hold a ‘mental stop sign’ to pause and assess if the decision warrants significant energy. If not, make any reasonable choice and move on.
8. Don’t Fear “Equally Good” Choices
When faced with two equally good options, understand that any decision will likely be sound because it’s based on a reason. Avoid getting stuck trying to find a ‘better’ choice.
9. Evaluate Inaction as Choice
Actively consider ‘doing nothing’ or ’not making a decision’ as a viable option, especially when faced with bad choices. This can allow for more time, information, or exploration of alternatives.
10. Build a Personal Board of Directors
Formally identify and cultivate a ‘personal board of directors’ or ‘brains trusts’ of mentors and advisors. These trusted individuals offer diverse perspectives and experience for navigating complex decisions.
11. Consult Varied Perspectives
Seek advice from people with diverse viewpoints: those who are generally wise, those with direct lived experience (both positive and negative), and those with genuine expertise. This broadens understanding and mitigates bias.
12. Maintain a Decision Diary
Keep a decision diary to log your mood, feelings, and contextual factors when making important choices. This practice enhances self-awareness and provides data for future reflection.
13. Reflect on Past Decisions
Improve decision-making by systematically reflecting on past choices, understanding options, reasons for selection, and outcome alignment. This creates a feedback loop for continuous learning.
14. Conduct Tabletop Exercises
Utilize tabletop exercises to simulate complex situations with multiple stakeholders, focusing on key dynamics. This practice improves decision-making processes and prepares for unpredictable scenarios.
15. Leverage Games for Simulation
Use games as a unique medium to simulate imaginary worlds, make choices, and experience direct consequences with near-zero risk. This allows for experimentation and learning in a safe sandbox.
16. Clarify Game’s Core Purpose
When designing or using games for educational or behavioral change, clearly define the true aim or purpose first. Avoid simply adding points or leaderboards, which can lead to optimizing for metrics rather than desired behavior.
17. Prioritize Early Playtesting
Conduct playtesting as early and frequently as possible, even with bare-bones concepts, to get the earliest signal on whether your game or system achieves its intended purpose. This identifies flaws before significant investment.
18. Embrace Portfolio Career
Consider a ‘portfolio career’ with different types of work to gain varied perspectives and potentially hedge career impact. This balances assured, positive impact with the pursuit of high-impact opportunities.
19. Value Career Sustainability
Prioritize career longevity and sustainability by balancing emotionally demanding work with other activities that allow for recharge and renewed excitement. This trade-off can prevent burnout and maintain effectiveness.
5 Key Quotes
I think that probably the biggest thing I think that a lot of people can do is just practice their kind of awareness about decisions that come up, situational awareness.
Dan Epstein
When you make a decision according to what your values are, that's usually the best way to go about it.
Dan Epstein
Any decision is a good decision because you made it for a reason.
Spencer Greenberg
Games are a very unique medium because they involve agency and you can make choices inside of them.
Dan Epstein
There's pretty good saying in economics that you get what you measure.
Dan Epstein
3 Protocols
Advanced Care Directive Creation
Dan Epstein- Think about what you want from medical treatment, beyond just resuscitation (e.g., antibiotics for pneumonia).
- Consider potential outcomes of various treatments, especially if you have chronic or terminal illness.
- Reflect on your values and preferences for different health scenarios.
- Fill out an advanced care directive document (free templates available online).
- Share the completed directive with loved ones via email and keep a printed copy in an accessible place.
Overcoming Indecision on Minor Choices
Dan Epstein- Recognize when you are spending too much time or ruminating on a small decision.
- Hold a mental 'stop sign' to pause the overthinking.
- Ask yourself: 'Does this decision truly require this much energy or concentration?'
- If no, make a decision quickly; any choice made for a reason is likely good in this context.
- If yes, then dedicate appropriate time to think about it.
Designing a Tabletop Exercise
Dan Epstein- Define the clear aim or purpose of the exercise (e.g., test evacuation procedure, understand government response).
- Identify and create scenarios and stakeholders that support the defined aim.
- For each stakeholder, outline their ambitions, goals, and mandates in the situation (e.g., dot points).
- Design mechanisms for simulating external events or non-player stakeholders (e.g., random tables, game master actions).
- Conduct early and frequent playtesting with people unfamiliar with the design to ensure fidelity and learning.