Making better decisions by thinking like an artist (with Elspeth Kirkman)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Elspeth Kirkman about psychological distance, construal-level theory, and "decisionscapes," exploring how framing and perspective profoundly influence our choices. They also delve into the societal implications of AI, survivorship bias, and the rage economy on social media.
Deep Dive Analysis
15 Topic Outline
Psychological Distance and Decision Distortion
Construal Level Theory and its Manipulation
Extreme Examples of Psychological Distance in Decision-Making
Individual Decisions and Charitable Giving
Utility of Psychological Distance in Decision-Making
Decision Scapes: An Artistic Metaphor for Decisions
Framing Effects and Decision Outcomes
Applying Decision Scapes to Career Choices
AI's Impact on Productivity and Societal Values
Authenticity, Sacrifice, and the Relational Economy
AI's Effect on Art and Mechanical Reproduction
Technology, Efficiency, and Social Control
Rage Bait and the Algorithm-Driven Attention Economy
Survivorship Bias: The Master of All Biases
Framing Devices for Better Decision-Making
6 Key Concepts
Psychological Distance
This concept refers to the gap between an individual's current self and other people, future events, or distant happenings. When things are psychologically distant, people tend to care less about them, which can warp decision-making by causing neglect of important issues that aren't immediately relevant, while also serving as a protective factor against being overwhelmed by universal compassion.
Construal Level Theory
Closely related to psychological distance, this theory describes how people process situations. Psychologically proximal things are thought about with a lower construal level, meaning in specific, granular detail, making them feel more immediate and impactful. Psychologically distant things are thought about with a higher construal level, meaning in a more abstract, less detailed way, which can be useful for visioning but problematic for detailed planning.
Decisionscape
A metaphor that encourages thinking about decision-making like an artist constructing a canvas. It involves deliberately considering what aspects to foreground or background, how elements are sized relative to each other, where the eye is drawn, and what is included or excluded from the frame. This helps ensure that the most important factors, aligned with one's values, are given proper attention.
Identifiable Victim Effect
This effect describes how people are more compelled by a single, identifiable victim's story or image than by statistics about a larger problem. It works by collapsing psychological distance, making the issue more concrete and personal, which can increase empathy and willingness to help.
Rage Bait
Content deliberately created to provoke anger and argument in online comments or discussions. This strategy is often used by creators on platforms with algorithms that reward engagement, as it drives views and interactions, leading to financial gain for the creator, even if the content itself is divisive or promotes conflict.
Survivorship Bias
A type of selection bias where conclusions are drawn only from successful outcomes or 'survivors,' neglecting failures or those who did not survive. This makes it difficult to understand the full picture, as the information available is incomplete and often leads to misattributing success to skill rather than luck or other unobserved factors.
9 Questions Answered
Psychological distance is considered one of the most powerful distorting forces, as it describes the gap between an individual and other people, future events, or distant happenings, which reduces the perceived importance of those things.
They are closely related; things that are psychologically proximal tend to have a lower construal level (thought about in specific detail), while psychologically distant things tend to have a higher construal level (thought about abstractly).
Psychological distance can be useful when one is overwhelmed by options, as the brain automatically down-weights distant concerns, reducing the choice set. It also helps maintain social bonds by prioritizing immediate relationships and local community fabric.
One can increase psychological distance by asking 'What would I tell a friend going through this?' to step outside one's own immediate perspective, or by considering what a decision will look like in six months to shift focus from immediate overwhelming aspects.
Toddler's choice refers to constraining available options to simplify a decision, similar to how one might ask a toddler 'Do you want sauce or no sauce with your pasta?' instead of 'Do you want to eat your dinner?'. This highlights how external forces or culture often pre-curate our choice sets, making us feel like we're choosing when our options are already limited.
AI could lead to significant productivity gains, presenting an opportunity to either reinvest money into already wealthy companies and demand more work, or to buy more leisure time for people and invest in societal well-being. The current trend suggests a default towards increased productivity without proportional benefits for workers.
AI-assisted tools (like smart glasses recalling personal details or automated card generation) can erode the thoughtfulness and perceived sacrifice involved in gestures. If interactions become mediated by AI, the authenticity of remembering details or making an effort is diminished, potentially leading to a 'relational economy' where people might need to explicitly opt out of AI assistance to signal genuine care.
Concerns about mass reproduction of art in the 1930s, as discussed by the Frankfurt School, are strikingly similar to current fears about AI art. Both eras grapple with questions about the diminishing value of unique pieces, the erosion of an artwork's 'aura,' and how technology changes the definition and experience of art.
Survivorship bias is seen as a master bias because it profoundly colors our perception of everything, as the entire world we observe is the product of what survived. It makes it incredibly difficult to remember that we're not seeing all information, leading us to rationalize randomness as meaningful trajectory and influencing our beliefs about success, history, and social dynamics.
24 Actionable Insights
1. Deliberately Frame Decisions
When making significant choices, consciously foreground what truly aligns with your values and fade less important details, like an artist composing a canvas. This helps ensure you focus on what matters most and consider options outside the initial frame.
2. Challenge “Toddler’s Choice” Options
Be aware that many choices presented by culture or others are often pre-curated; actively question the available options and seek out alternative or “third way” solutions that might not be immediately obvious.
3. Future-Pace Decisions (6-Month Rule)
To overcome immediate anxieties or perceived difficulties in a decision, project yourself six months into the future and consider what you will genuinely care about then. This helps prioritize long-term values over short-term discomfort.
4. Gain Perspective by Advising a Friend
To create psychological distance and step outside your own immediate perspective, ask yourself: “What would I tell a friend who was going through this exact situation?”
5. Actively Seek Out Failures/Non-Survivors
To counteract survivorship bias, deliberately seek information about failures or those who didn’t succeed, as this provides a more complete and accurate picture than focusing solely on successful outcomes.
6. Question Explanations of Success
When encountering stories of success, critically evaluate the role of luck and randomness, and consider whether the strategies are truly applicable to your unique situation. This helps avoid misattributing success solely to effort or specific methods.
7. Recognize and Resist Rage Bait
Be aware that social media algorithms often incentivize content designed to provoke anger and argument for engagement; consciously resist engaging with these tactics to avoid contributing to a distorted online discourse.
8. Beware the “Majority Illusion”
Understand that extreme or polarizing views amplified by algorithms can create a false perception that these views are widely held. This awareness helps prevent self-censorship or misjudging public opinion.
9. Reframe “Sunk Cost” Decisions
To overcome the sunk cost fallacy, ask yourself: “If I weren’t currently involved in this project, would I choose to join it today, knowing everything I know now?” This helps make decisions based on future potential, not past investment.
10. Manipulate Construal for Visioning
When conducting visioning meetings or brainstorming future directions, encourage a high construal level by thinking abstractly and loosely, rather than getting bogged down in granular details. This fosters creativity and broad thinking.
11. Ground Vision with Low Construal
After establishing a high-level vision, shift to a low construal level by focusing on specific, granular details and practical steps. This ensures the vision can be effectively planned and connected to reality.
12. Reduce Distance for Charitable Giving
To encourage more impactful charitable giving, reduce psychological distance by focusing on identifiable victims or specific stories, as people are more compelled by personal narratives than by statistics.
13. Prioritize Costly Sacrifice in Relationships
Recognize that genuine care in relationships is often demonstrated through “costly sacrifice” (time, effort, thoughtfulness). Be mindful that convenient, AI-assisted gestures may erode perceived meaning if they lack this investment.
14. Preserve Authenticity in Communication
Be cautious of using AI-suggested messages or automated communication, as they can erode authenticity by replacing your genuine words and feelings with generic or algorithm-generated content.
15. Create “Raw Interaction” Rituals
In an age of pervasive AI assistance, consider establishing rituals (e.g., mutually agreeing to turn off smart devices) to ensure genuine, unassisted interactions where attention and memory are truly human-driven.
16. Challenge “Main Character” Syndrome
When experiencing social anxiety or catastrophic thinking, reflect on “What if I weren’t the main character?” to gain perspective and realize that many situations are not primarily centered around you.
17. Question Technology’s “Co-pilot” Narrative
Be critical of the common narrative that technology is merely a “co-pilot” assisting humans; recognize that humans can become subservient to technological demands, potentially prioritizing efficiency over human well-being.
18. Be Aware of Technology’s Social Control
Understand that control over dominant technological infrastructure (e.g., social media platforms) can translate into significant social power, influencing discourse and shaping collective reality.
19. Recognize Rationalization of Randomness
Be aware of the human tendency to interpret random events as meaningful trajectories or fated outcomes; actively challenge these assumptions to avoid misattributing success or failure.
20. Use Framing Tools for Reflection
Utilize tools like tarot or horoscopes as prompts for self-reflection and to explore different framings of a situation (e.g., “what if this was a romantic comedy?”), but do not mistake them for factual knowledge or use them for serious life decisions.
21. Advocate for Leisure from AI
At a national or organizational level, deliberately question the default of reinvesting all AI productivity gains into more work; instead, advocate for increased leisure time or direct investment back into people and society.
22. Focus Math Education on Practical Concepts
For effective math education, prioritize foundational concepts like basic arithmetic, percentages, fundamental probability, and core statistical principles (e.g., uncertainty, data impact) over complex tests or extensive geometry.
23. Increase Distance to Avoid Overwhelm
When facing an overwhelming number of options, allow your brain to naturally down-weight factors that are psychologically distant (e.g., far in the future, affecting others far away) to simplify your decision-making process.
24. Prioritize Close Relationships/Society
Actively invest more heavily in the relationships you have with people you know and love, and in the immediate fabric of your society, as this is a natural protective factor that fosters strong community bonds.
9 Key Quotes
Psychological distance has this really big impact on how we make decisions, because when things are psychologically distanced, maybe they happen far in the future, or they happen to somebody else. We just don't really care about them that much.
Elspeth Kirkman
Just because you think that's morally correct, it's probably not legally the thing that you should do, because you can probably get done for murder if you pull the lever, whereas you're, you know, completely absolved if you don't touch it.
Elspeth Kirkman
Nobody ever got compelled by a statistic. A story is a much more kind of attractive thing to people.
Elspeth Kirkman
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you're thinking about it.
Spencer Greenberg
I often think of it as like, sort of call it toddler's choice. I'm sure it's got a proper name. But it's like, if you want your toddler to do something, you don't say, do you want to eat your dinner now? You say, like, do you want sauce with the pasta or no sauce?
Elspeth Kirkman
It just feels like we're really kind of missing a trick because we have this really kind of at least once in a generation opportunity, I think, to think about what do we want?
Elspeth Kirkman
I think the most striking takeaway is that all of the things that were concerning and worrying back in 1935 about mass reproduction are the exact same fears that we have today.
Elspeth Kirkman
I think the other thing, which is much more existential and probably a little bit less likely to happen, is that if the version I talked about did happen, where, you know, suddenly big aspects of my job can be done by my avatar because I've got my email history and my Slack history and my Zoom history and all of those things, that doesn't really last that long.
Elspeth Kirkman
History is written by the winners. It's the people who survived got to tell the, got to tell the story in their way.
Elspeth Kirkman