Volunteering to be infected with COVID — for science! (with Josh Morrison)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Walt Hickey about the shifting media landscape, the rise of graphic novels, the importance and durability of cultural soft power, and the challenges of communicating probability and making accurate forecasts.
Deep Dive Analysis
14 Topic Outline
Introduction to Walt Hickey and Episode Topics
The Rise of Graphic Novels in Adult Fiction
Global Influence of Manga and Web Comics
Impact of Visual Media on Reading Habits
Animated Media's Ability to Explore Darker Themes
Defining and Understanding Soft Power
Evolution and Challenges of US Soft Power
American Identity and Internal Critique
The Ambiguity of Probability Words
Communicating Probabilities: Words vs. Numbers
Subjectivity and Precision in Forecasting
Accuracy and Interpretation of Weather Forecasts
The Culture of Probabilistic Prediction
Effective Communication of Forecasts by Experts
5 Key Concepts
Hard Power
Hard power refers to a country's ability to achieve its goals or exert influence through military force, compulsion, or intimidation. It relies on physical strength and the threat or use of force to obtain desired outcomes.
Soft Power
Soft power is a country's ability to achieve its goals or recruit allies by making other countries want to be its friend, primarily through cultural influence, trade, and appealing values, rather than through military force. It operates through attraction and persuasion.
Cultural Osmosis
Cultural osmosis describes the gradual process by which cultural elements, such as manga and anime, spread and are absorbed into other cultures. This process influences mainstream tastes and acceptance over time, often without explicit promotion.
Words of Estimative Probability
These are terms used to express likelihood (e.g., 'a chance of,' 'maybe,' 'probably') that can be interpreted with widely varying numerical probabilities by different individuals. This ambiguity often leads to miscommunication or misunderstanding of forecasts.
ELO Model
The ELO model is a rating system, originally developed for chess, that assigns points to players based on their performance against opponents. It's adapted for various competitive systems to assess skill levels, with scores changing based on wins and losses against higher or lower-rated opponents.
7 Questions Answered
Graphic novel sales have doubled due to the influence of international visual media like Japanese manga and Korean web comics, increased literacy with the medium among younger generations, and a surge in book buying during the pandemic.
Animated or drawn mediums create a 'heightened sense of reality' or 'unreality' that elevates the audience's suspension of disbelief. This 'lowers the resolution' of intense or disturbing content, making it more tolerable and less jarring than in live-action.
Soft power is a country's ability to influence others and achieve geopolitical goals by making them want to be friends or emulate its culture, rather than through military force (hard power). It's important because it fosters alliances and influence through attraction and shared values.
While global attitudes towards the US have fluctuated with different administrations, its cultural industries (like Hollywood) have maintained significant influence. Soft power, once accrued, is durable and takes considerable effort to squander, though internal critiques and political actions can make a dent.
Everyday words like 'possible,' 'unlikely,' or 'probably' have widely varying numerical interpretations among different people, leading to miscommunication. There are also 'liminal spaces' in probability (e.g., 30-70%) for which English lacks consistently understood words.
Using precise numbers (e.g., 90% chance) can force greater clarity and honesty in forecasting, making predictions more falsifiable and aiding calibration. However, even precise statistics can be misinterpreted by the public, and sometimes numbers can turn people off or give a false sense of precision for subjective beliefs.
Weather reports, particularly from the National Weather Service, are increasingly reliable due to improved data gathering capacity, such as new satellites. While local TV might inflate rain probabilities, the underlying models are good and continuously optimized by comparing forecasts to actual outcomes.
21 Actionable Insights
1. Evaluate Arguments by Merit
Focus on the content of what is being said rather than the credentials of the speaker, to ensure beliefs are formed based on substance.
2. Communicate Probabilities Precisely
Use numerical percentages (e.g., “70% confident”) instead of vague words like “probably” or “possible” to avoid miscommunication, especially for mid-range probabilities.
3. Practice Skepticism with Forecasts
When encountering forecasts or probability assessments, actively question and think about what the communicator is truly trying to convey, as language can be ambiguous.
4. Acknowledge Uncertainty Explicitly
When making predictions or presenting data, be assertive about acknowledging uncertainty and clearly state its sources to provide a more honest and complete picture.
5. Strengthen Arguments with Data
Center your arguments and stories around specific data points or facts (e.g., “this intersection saw an increase in collisions”) to make them more compelling and factual.
6. View Critique as Improvement
Interpret internal critique of a country or system as an attempt to identify and fix problems, rather than a fundamental rejection or desire to destroy.
7. Scrutinize Social Science Studies
When reading social science studies, pay close attention to the details of how data was collected and analyzed, as these specifics significantly impact the findings.
8. Practice Probabilistic Forecasting
Use tools like Prediction Book to make probabilistic predictions about important life events, which helps fine-tune your thinking and improve forecasting calibration.
9. Interrogate Models for Missing Information
When using models (e.g., ELO models for sports), actively identify and incorporate information that the model lacks to build more accurate and nuanced estimates.
10. Support Altruistic Choices
Avoid projecting personal moral dilemmas onto others who choose to engage in altruistic acts like organ donation or challenge studies; instead, support their choices.
11. Advocate for Organ Donor Support
Treat organ donors as honored public servants by advocating for them to receive the best healthcare, stipends for follow-up, and reimbursement for expenses.
12. Consider Good Samaritan Kidney Donation
If willing to donate a kidney, consider donating to a stranger (Good Samaritan donation) as it can initiate a “kidney exchange” chain, potentially saving multiple lives.
13. Share Positive Donation Experiences
If you have a positive experience with organ donation, share it to encourage others, especially family members, to consider donation if the need arises.
14. Advocate for Consistent Marijuana Legalization
Support and advocate for consistent and full federal legalization of marijuana, addressing the current inconsistencies where it’s federally illegal but legal in some states.
15. Utilize Visual Media for Depth
Employ drawn visuals or animated mediums to explore deeper or darker themes, as the heightened sense of unreality can allow audiences to tolerate more intense content.
16. Consider Alternative Reading Forms
When assessing reading habits, broaden your perspective beyond traditional books to include digital formats like web comics and fan fiction, which are popular among younger generations.
17. Use Text-Based Communication for Depth
Leverage text-based, asynchronous communication (like instant messaging) to facilitate deeper conversations, as the absence of immediate face-to-face interaction can encourage more open expression.
18. Explore Graphic Novels and Manga
Visit your local library or bookstore to explore the diverse and often intense themes found in graphic novels and manga, which represent a rapidly growing segment of adult fiction.
19. Read NumLock News
Subscribe to Walt Hickey’s free daily newsletter, NumLock News (numlocknews.com), to get key data points and facts from seven stories each weekday morning.
20. Use ThoughtSaver for Recall
Utilize ThoughtSaver (ThoughtSaver.com), a free tool that sends daily flashcard quizzes, to help remember important ideas and strengthen recall.
21. Use MindEase for Stress Relief
If feeling stressed or anxious, try MindEase (mindease.io), a free app offering scientifically proven, interactive exercises to relieve stress and anxiety in under 10 minutes.
7 Key Quotes
Graphic novels in the first six months of the year were 20% of the adult fiction market. That's up from 9% last year. So in one year.
Walt Hickey
The reason that musical films for children can work is that they're kind of taking the language of Broadway and the language of the stage and that kind of stuff. And that works differently than a movie does, because you are in this kind of heightened level of unreality.
Walt Hickey
When one country gets other countries to want what it wants, it might be called soft power in contrast with the hard or command power of ordering others to do what it wants.
Spencer Greenberg
The thing that I find the most interesting with soft power is like, when you have it, it does take quite a bit to squander it.
Walt Hickey
If you have a house that you like a lot, but like, one of the little bit of the drywall is rotted in the bathroom, and somebody's like, we need to acknowledge the rotted drywall in the bathroom so that we can eventually fix the rotted drywall in the bathroom. Nobody's trying to burn the house down, right?
Walt Hickey
I think that people think that they want to read less. I think that people want to commit less to stuff.
Walt Hickey
When you force yourself to assign a probability to something, there is a point at which you are just kind of converting into a gambling person, and potentially just trying to get closest to the pin, I suppose.
Walt Hickey
1 Protocols
Kidney Exchange / Paired Kidney Donation
Josh Morrison- A person needing a kidney has a willing donor, but they are not a match.
- Another person (a 'Good Samaritan' donor) is willing to donate to anyone.
- The Good Samaritan donates to the first person in need.
- The first person's original willing donor then donates to another person in a similar situation.
- This creates a 'domino chain' of donations, potentially saving multiple lives and allowing for better immunological matching.