Voting method reform in the US (with Aaron Hamlin)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Aaron Hamlin of the Center for Election Science about the flaws of current U.S. voting methods. They discuss how approval voting can lead to more representative winners, reduce vote splitting, and be implemented through grassroots ballot initiatives.
Deep Dive Analysis
17 Topic Outline
US Democracy's Flawed Voting System
Personal Revelation: Voting Against Interests
Vote Splitting and the 2000 US Presidential Election
Value of Third-Party Votes and Accurate Support Measurement
Defining and Components of a Voting Method
Challenges in Designing Voting Systems: Gameability
Robustness to Strategic Voting: Approval vs. Score Voting
Evolution of Preference for Approval Voting
Critiques of Ranking-Based Voting Methods
Arrow's Impossibility Theorem and its Implications
Impact of Switching to Approval Voting in the US
Effect of Approval Voting on the Two-Party System
Ballot Access Laws and Major Party Incentives
Overcoming Resistance to Voting System Changes
Scaling Approval Voting Adoption: City to State Level
Comparing Instant Runoff Voting and Approval Voting
Disagreements Among Voting Reform Advocates
9 Key Concepts
Plurality Voting / First-Past-the-Post
This is the current US voting system where voters select only one candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins. It is often criticized for not accurately reflecting voter preferences and leading to strategic voting.
Vote Splitting
This occurs when two or more similar candidates divide votes among themselves, inadvertently allowing a less preferred candidate (who might have less overall support) to win. It forces voters to choose between their favorite and a more viable option.
Voting Method Components
A voting method is comprised of two main parts: the type of information voters provide on the ballot (e.g., choosing one, ranking, scoring) and the algorithm used to calculate that information to produce a result and determine a winner.
Strategic Voting
This is when a voter does not express their true preference on a ballot but instead votes in a way they believe will maximize their utility or prevent an undesirable outcome. It often involves supporting a less-preferred but more viable candidate.
Cardinal Systems
These are voting methods that allow voters to express a degree of preference for candidates, typically by scoring them on a scale (like 0-10) or by approving/disapproving of multiple candidates. They aim to capture richer preference information than simple rankings.
Approval Voting
A cardinal voting method where voters can select (approve of) as many candidates as they wish. The candidate who receives the most 'approvals' wins. It is praised for its simplicity, robustness to strategic voting, and ability to elect consensus candidates.
Instant Runoff Voting (Ranked Choice Voting)
A ranking-based voting method where voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on the voters' next preferences, continuing until one candidate has a majority.
Arrow's Impossibility Theorem
A theorem by Kenneth Arrow stating that no ranking-based voting method can perfectly satisfy a set of seemingly reasonable criteria (like non-dictatorship, Pareto efficiency, and independence of irrelevant alternatives) simultaneously. It highlights that no voting system is perfect, but some are still much better than others.
Favorite Betrayal Criterion
A criterion for voting methods that states a voter should always be incentivized to support their honest favorite candidate, even when attempting to vote tactically. Instant Runoff Voting, for example, fails this criterion, as seen in the 2009 Burlington, Vermont mayoral election.
11 Questions Answered
Yes, the current US system, primarily plurality voting, is considered very bad because it often fails to accurately reflect voter preferences and can lead to undesirable outcomes like electing candidates without broad consensus.
Under plurality voting, voters often engage in strategic voting, supporting a less-preferred but more viable candidate to prevent a highly disliked candidate from winning, rather than voting for their true favorite who is unlikely to win.
A voting method consists of the type of information voters provide on the ballot (e.g., single choice, ranking, scoring) and the algorithm used to aggregate that information to determine a winner.
All voting methods face strategic voting to some degree, but their robustness varies. Approval voting and score voting have shown to be relatively robust, with aggregate results still reflecting honest preferences despite some strategic behavior.
After extensive research, they found approval voting to be superior in winner selection and accurately capturing candidate support compared to other methods, while also being simpler and more practical for voters.
Ranking methods provide ordinal information, making it difficult to gauge the true degree of support for candidates. They can also be cognitively burdensome for voters with many candidates, and the algorithm may not use all the information provided by the voter.
Arrow's theorem demonstrates that no ranking-based voting system can perfectly satisfy a set of desirable criteria simultaneously. It implies that while no voting method is perfect, some are still significantly better than others, and the choice depends on which criteria are prioritized.
Approval voting would lead to more accurate reflection of support for all candidates, including third parties and independents. It would also tend to elect more consensus-oriented, median candidates, leading to more stable policies and less political pendulum swinging.
Approval voting would reduce vote splitting, lessening the incentive for major parties to suppress third parties through restrictive ballot access laws. It would also incentivize major parties to shift their positions closer to the median voter to win.
Migration is challenging because elected officials are often resistant to changing the system that got them elected. The strategy involves working directly with voters through ballot initiatives at local and state levels to implement the change.
On a scale where plurality voting is 0 and approval voting is 100, instant runoff voting might be around 50-60, primarily because it's a complicated runoff system that doesn't effectively capture candidate support.
15 Actionable Insights
1. Advocate Approval Voting
Support the implementation of approval voting, especially for single-winner elections, because it leads to more consensus candidates, reduces vote splitting, and better reflects overall candidate support.
2. Implement Via Ballot Initiatives
Work with local communities and voters to pass approval voting through ballot initiatives, rather than relying on elected officials, to change voting systems at city and state levels.
3. Support Election Science Center
Support the Center for Election Science by joining local chapters, engaging on Discord, or making financial donations to help advance the adoption of approval voting across the U.S.
4. Understand Plurality Voting Flaws
Recognize that the current “choose-one” voting system (plurality/first-past-the-post) often forces voters to choose between their favorite candidate and a viable one, leading to strategic voting and vote splitting.
5. Vote Strategically in Plurality
If operating under a plurality voting system, it can be rational to vote for a less-preferred but more viable candidate to prevent a highly disliked candidate from winning, even if it means not supporting your favorite.
6. Support Third Parties
Consider voting for third-party candidates, even if they are unlikely to win, to express support for their ideas and give them more sway, potentially influencing major parties and future elections.
7. Critically Evaluate Voting Methods
Assess voting methods based on their ability to select a good winner, accurately capture candidate support, and be practical and understandable, rather than solely relying on theoretical criteria.
8. Prioritize Simplicity & Performance
When choosing a voting method, prioritize simpler options that perform better or comparably, as minor gains in theoretical utility may not outweigh increased complexity.
9. Avoid Ranked Choice Voting
Be aware that ranked choice voting (instant runoff voting) can fail to accurately reflect candidate support, impose a high cognitive burden on voters, and sometimes incentivize voters to betray their favorite candidate.
10. Use MindEase for Stress
Use the free MindEase app (mindease.io) for iOS, Android, or web to access scientifically proven exercises that help relieve stress and anxiety in under 10 minutes.
11. Subscribe to Newsletter
Sign up for the “One Helpful Idea” newsletter at clearerthinkingpodcast.com/newsletter to receive a single valuable, bite-sized idea weekly, along with podcast updates and essays.
12. Apply Chesterton’s Fence
Before dismantling existing systems or practices, strive to understand the underlying reasons for their existence to avoid unforeseen negative consequences.
13. Read The Selfish Gene
Read “The Selfish Gene” by Richard Dawkins to gain a deeper understanding of evolution, which is crucial for comprehending the world and human nature.
14. Learn Cognitive Behavioral Therapy
Read “Feeling Good” by David Burns to learn evidence-based CBT techniques for managing depression and anxiety and improving overall happiness.
15. Explore Diverse Human Cultures
Read “The World Until Yesterday” to explore the diversity of human cultures and gain a different lens on psychology by examining tribal groups disconnected from large-scale societies.
5 Key Quotes
if my friends here who are really engaged, aren't going to vote for people that support their interests, then really, who will?
Aaron Hamlin
supporting your favorite is going to help this other person you really don't like win.
Aaron Hamlin
we want to make sure that a voting method not only does it do a good job in terms of getting the right winner, we also want to make sure that it does a good job of measuring the correct support for all the candidates.
Aaron Hamlin
all voting methods will have some kind of shortcoming. It's just in terms of when we kind of reflect on this and think about what our values are in a voting method and what makes a voting method good and seeing how those attributes stack up against one another.
Aaron Hamlin
when you ask people in office to change the way that they get elected, they're not very excited about that proposition.
Aaron Hamlin
1 Protocols
Voting System Change Implementation (The Center for Election Science)
Aaron Hamlin- Work with voters and community members who are reflecting on and upset about their current elections.
- Help these local groups identify and reach out to other key stakeholders in their community.
- Provide tools and support for running ballot initiatives.
- Gather the necessary signatures to get the proposed voting method (e.g., approval voting) onto the ballot.
- Conduct education campaigns to ensure the community understands the benefits of the new voting method and the issues with the current system.
- Pass the ballot initiative through a direct vote by the people.
- For statewide changes, recognize that winning a state through a ballot initiative also affects federal components like US House/Senate seats and presidential electoral vote allocation.