What does humanity need to survive after a global catastrophe? (with David Denkenberger)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with David Dinkenberger about preparing for catastrophic climate change and infrastructure loss. They discuss strategies for scaling resilient food production and maintaining civilization in disaster scenarios.
Deep Dive Analysis
17 Topic Outline
Introduction to Catastrophic Risks and Civilization Setbacks
Two Categories of Global Catastrophes
Catastrophes Affecting Global Food Supply
Conventional and Insufficient Responses to Food Shortages
Developing Resilient Food Sources for Catastrophes
Converting Cellulose (Wood) into Edible Sugar
Producing Protein from Natural Gas (Methane)
Scaling Up Seaweed Cultivation as a Food Source
Relocating Crops and Utilizing Greenhouses in the Tropics
Societal Dynamics and Incentivizing Cooperation in Catastrophes
Public Perception and Government Engagement with Catastrophic Risks
Catastrophes Affecting Electricity and Industrial Systems
Urgent Needs and Long-Term Recovery from Infrastructure Loss
Strategies for Restoring Essential Services and Agriculture Post-Collapse
Prioritizing Interventions and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
The Origin and Mission of ALLFED
Life in Alaska and ALLFED's Volunteer Program
6 Key Concepts
Nuclear Winter
A scenario following a large-scale nuclear war where smoke from burning cities enters the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight for a decade or more and causing a global collapse of agricultural systems.
Resilient Foods
Food sources that can be produced or scaled up quickly and affordably, even after a major global catastrophe that blocks sunlight or disrupts industrial agriculture, to ensure human survival.
Cellulose-to-Sugar Conversion
A process that breaks down plant fiber (cellulose) from sources like wood or agricultural residues into edible sugars, potentially repurposing existing paper factories for rapid food production in a disaster scenario.
Methane Single-Cell Protein
A food production method utilizing microorganisms that consume natural gas (methane) and convert it into protein-rich biomass, which can be used as human or animal feed, assuming gas extraction is still possible.
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)
A burst of electromagnetic radiation, potentially caused by a high-altitude nuclear detonation, that can destroy electrical grids, transformers, and many plugged-in electronic devices over a wide region.
Overshoot Scenario
A situation where a population exceeds the carrying capacity of its environment, leading to resource depletion and potential societal collapse, especially if basic needs like food cannot be met by existing systems after a catastrophe.
7 Questions Answered
David Denkenberger categorizes catastrophes into those that drastically impact the global food supply (e.g., climate change, volcanic eruptions, nuclear war) and those that cause abrupt, large-scale loss of electricity and industrial infrastructure (e.g., solar storms, EMPs, cyberattacks).
Non-conventional methods include converting cellulose (from wood or agricultural waste) into sugar, growing protein-rich microorganisms that feed on natural gas, rapidly scaling up seaweed cultivation, relocating specific crops to tropical regions, and using low-tech greenhouses for temperature control.
The cost for survival, using the most promising resilient food sources, is estimated to be surprisingly low, in the ballpark of one to three dollars per person per day, though still more expensive than current bulk grain prices.
Challenges include individual and national hoarding of resources, potential for conflict over limited supplies, and a zero-sum dynamic if people believe there isn't enough food for everyone, potentially leading to a downward spiral.
While replacing large high-voltage transformers can take six months to a year, there is concern that if industrial civilization were lost globally, it might be difficult or impossible to restart, especially if people forget critical knowledge or easily accessible fossil fuels are depleted.
A global backup radio communication system using shortwave or ham radios, protected from EMPs and with its own power supply, could maintain communication. For agriculture, scaling up hand and animal farming tools, using animal power for transport, planting nitrogen-fixing legumes, and burning wood from landfills for ash fertilizer are potential strategies.
Governments often have a short-term focus, prioritizing issues within their election cycles, and organizations like the World Food Program are often overwhelmed by current crises, leading to probability neglect regarding long-term, low-probability, high-impact events.
17 Actionable Insights
1. Repurpose Factories for Sugar Production
Explore repurposing paper factories to convert cellulose (from dead trees or agricultural residues) into edible sugar. This leverages existing infrastructure for a scalable and economical food source in a disaster.
2. Convert Natural Gas to Protein
Develop and scale technologies that use microorganisms to convert natural gas (methane) into protein-rich food. This provides a viable food source if natural gas remains accessible after a disaster.
3. Rapid Seaweed Cultivation
Scale up seaweed cultivation, especially in shallow ocean areas, as it grows rapidly (10% per day) and thrives in low light levels. This is a less capital-intensive food production method.
4. Build Low-Tech Greenhouses
Rapidly scale up production of plastic sheeting to construct low-tech greenhouses in tropical regions. This enables temperature control and the growth of essential crops like corn, rice, and soybeans in adverse conditions.
5. Hydrogen-Fed Microbes for Protein
Commercialize the technology of using electricity to split water, then feeding the resulting hydrogen to microbes that produce protein-rich food. This method offers a high-protein food source.
6. Relocate Resilient Crops to Tropics
In scenarios with global cooling and low light, relocate and cultivate resilient crops like potatoes, sugar beets, wheat, barley, and canola oil to tropical regions, as they can withstand such conditions.
7. Cultivate Mushrooms for Survival
In a catastrophe where sunlight is blocked, consider cultivating mushrooms as a food source. They can grow without sunlight and scale up quickly due to their numerous spores.
8. Rapid Catastrophe Communication Plan
Develop a rapid communication plan, potentially with social media and search engines, to inform the public during a catastrophe that enough food can be produced through cooperation. This aims to prevent panic and promote collective action.
9. Establish Backup Radio Communication
Establish a global backup radio communication system using shortwave/ham radios with independent power (e.g., solar panels) and EMP protection. This ensures communication during widespread electrical grid failures.
10. Scale Manual Farming Tools
Plan and develop the capacity to rapidly scale up the production of hand and animal-powered farming tools. This is crucial for maintaining agricultural output and food transport if industrial systems fail.
11. Utilize Natural Fertilizers
Increase planting of legumes (peas, beans, peanuts) to naturally fix nitrogen. Additionally, explore burning wood from landfills to create ash for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, replacing industrial inputs.
12. Adopt Organic Pest Control
Implement organic agriculture pest control methods, such as using natural predators. This allows for effective pest management without reliance on industrial pesticides after a disaster.
13. Reduce Food Waste & Animal Feed
To address minor food production shortfalls (around 10%), reduce food waste, feed less food to animals, and convert less food into biofuels. This helps manage food prices and prevents cascading societal consequences.
14. Demonstrate Resilient Food Production
Conduct proof-of-concept demonstrations to show that resilient food production technologies can be rapidly implemented and scaled. This validates preparedness plans for future catastrophes.
15. Manage Catastrophe Diet Limits
Be aware of potential nutrient imbalances in resilient foods (e.g., high iodine in seaweed) and consider simple processing like boiling to mitigate issues. In a catastrophe, dietary limits might need to be pushed.
16. Focus on Positive Interventions
When dealing with catastrophic risks, focus on the positive interventions and solutions rather than dwelling on potential negative outcomes. This helps maintain psychological well-being and sustained effort.
17. Implement Volunteer Taster Tasks
For organizations, implement a ’taster task’ (1-2 weeks) for potential volunteers to assess mutual fit before full onboarding. This strategy helps ensure significant contributions and successful volunteer engagement.
5 Key Quotes
Well, you'll die in three minutes without air, three hours without shelter, three days without water, and three weeks without food.
David Denkenberger
If countries and people realize that, I'm worried that there's going to be hoarding on an individual level, but also on a national or international level, that it could be in the country's interest to steal food from a neighboring country.
David Denkenberger
I think that if we could get the message out, that we can actually feed everyone if we cooperated, then our chances of cooperating go up significantly.
David Denkenberger
It certainly is true that most of people's effort historically has been getting food. But that's actually true for many people now in less developed countries that they spend the majority of their income on food.
David Denkenberger
I think that there may be some possibility that the catastrophes we work on could cause extinction. I don't think it's very likely, but an observation has been made that we have some food storage in industrial countries. And so probably some people would survive on that food storage. But then if we have a collapse of civilization and we have to go back to hunting and gathering, then maybe we can't figure out how to do that.
David Denkenberger