What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)
Spencer Greenberg speaks with Walt Hickey about the shifting media landscape, particularly the rise of graphic novels. They also discuss the importance of soft power in international relations and the challenges of communicating probability and uncertainty effectively.
Deep Dive Analysis
9 Topic Outline
Shifting Media Landscape and Graphic Novel Growth
Factors Driving Graphic Novel Popularity
Impact of Visual Media on Storytelling and Reality Perception
Defining and Understanding Soft Power
Evolution of American Soft Power and Global Perception
American Identity and Domestic Views on the US
Ambiguity in Communicating Probabilities with Words
Challenges and Interpretations of Probabilistic Forecasts
Improving Communication of Uncertainty and Predictions
6 Key Concepts
Graphic Novels
Long-form illustrated comic books that have significantly grown in popularity, particularly in the adult fiction market, and encompass diverse themes and styles beyond traditional American comic books, often appealing to broader demographics.
Soft Power
A country's ability to achieve its geopolitical goals and recruit allies by making other nations want what it wants, primarily through cultural influence, trade, and shared values, rather than through military force or compulsion.
Hard Power
A country's ability to achieve its geopolitical goals through the use of military force, compulsion, or intimidation, such as deploying aircraft carriers or engaging in warfare, to exert influence around the globe.
Words of Estimative Probability
Ambiguous words and phrases (e.g., 'chance,' 'maybe,' 'probably,' 'possible') used to express likelihood, which often lead to miscommunication because different people assign widely varying numerical probabilities to the same words.
ELO Model
A rating system, originally designed for chess, that assigns points to players or teams based on wins and losses, with more points gained for beating higher-rated opponents and fewer for beating lower-rated ones, used to estimate skill levels and predict outcomes in competitive systems.
Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
In weather forecasting, this refers to the percentage of times that, out of 100 days with similar atmospheric conditions, precipitation is expected to occur. It does not mean the percentage of a geographical area that will receive rain or the forecaster's personal accuracy rate.
7 Questions Answered
Graphic novel sales have surged due to increased cultural osmosis from international markets like Japan (manga) and Korea (web comics), a growing literacy with visual mediums among younger generations, and a boost in book buying during the pandemic.
Animated or drawn visuals can facilitate deeper or darker themes by creating a 'heightened sense of reality' where the audience's suspension of disbelief is elevated, making intense or disturbing content more tolerable than in realistic live-action mediums.
Soft power is a country's ability to influence others and achieve its goals by making them want what it wants, through cultural appeal, trade, and shared values, rather than by force. It's crucial for geopolitical competition as it fosters alliances and influence by making a country desirable.
While global attitudes towards the United States have fluctuated and sometimes dropped significantly during certain administrations (e.g., Bush, Trump), the underlying strength of American cultural industries and institutions like universities has largely sustained its soft power, which is durable and takes considerable effort to squander.
Words of probability (e.g., 'possible,' 'likely,' 'probably') are highly ambiguous, leading to widespread miscommunication because different individuals assign vastly different numerical interpretations to the same terms.
While specific percentages can force precision and improve calibration for forecasters, loose language can hide uncertainty or allow for evasion. However, even precise numbers can be misunderstood by the public, especially for probabilities in the 30-70% range for which common language lacks clear, universally understood terms.
A 25% chance of precipitation means that, based on weather models, out of 100 days with similar atmospheric conditions, precipitation is expected to occur on 25 of those days. It does not mean that 25% of the geographical area will get rain, or that the forecaster is right 25% of the time.
20 Actionable Insights
1. Avoid Vague Probability Words
When communicating predictions or likelihoods, avoid ambiguous words like “possible” or “unlikely” as their numerical interpretations vary too widely, leading to miscommunication. Instead, use precise percentages or well-understood phrases like “even odds” (50%) or “almost certainly” (90-100%).
2. Use Numbers for Probabilities
For precise communication, especially in the 30-70% range where English lacks clear words, use percentage chances to avoid misinterpretation of likelihoods. This forces clarity and ensures your audience understands the intended probability.
3. Acknowledge Uncertainty Explicitly
When making forecasts or predictions, be assertive about the presence of uncertainty. Clearly state the sources of uncertainty to provide a more honest and comprehensive assessment.
4. Calibrate Your Forecasts
Improve your forecasting ability by making probabilistic predictions about important life events and tracking their outcomes. Tools like Prediction Book can help you assess how calibrated your predictions are (e.g., if 80% likely events actually happen 80% of the time).
5. Interrogate Model Predictions
When using models for predictions, identify what relevant information you possess that the model lacks to refine your estimate. This allows you to build a more accurate forecast by accounting for uncaptured variables.
6. Focus on Content, Not Credentials
When evaluating information or arguments, prioritize the substance of what is being said rather than relying on the speaker’s credentials. This promotes independent and critical thinking, encouraging you to believe based on the message itself.
7. Scrutinize Social Science Studies
When encountering social science studies, carefully examine the details, methodology, and data collection. Small details can significantly alter the interpretation and validity of the findings, so always look closely.
8. Ask ‘Compared to What?’
When analyzing media consumption trends or any time usage data (e.g., “kids are reading less”), always ask what the comparison point is and how the data is collected. Ensure the study accounts for new media formats (e.g., graphic novels, web comics) to avoid misperceptions.
9. Center Stories on Data Points
To make journalistic stories more compelling and factual, center them around specific data points or facts. For example, instead of saying “this is a dangerous intersection,” state “this intersection saw an increase in collisions this year” to provide concrete evidence.
10. Facilitate Deeper Online Conversations
Utilize online text-based communication (like instant messaging) to foster deeper conversations. The absence of face-to-face interaction can help individuals express their thoughts and feelings more openly than in person or via text messages.
11. View Criticism as Improvement
Adopt a mindset that critiquing a country’s flaws is an urge to fix and address issues, rather than a fundamental rejection or desire to “burn the house down.” This perspective encourages constructive engagement and problem-solving.
12. Support Kidney Donors
Advocate for policies that treat kidney donors as honored public servants, providing them with top-tier healthcare, stipends for follow-up, and reimbursement for expenses. This approach would improve the donation system and encourage more donations.
13. Consider Kidney Donation for Family
If a family member needs a kidney transplant, consider the option of donation. Hearing positive experiences from healthy donors can make you more likely to donate and potentially save a loved one’s life.
14. Understand Kidney Exchange Chains
Be aware that donating a kidney to a stranger (Good Samaritan donation) can initiate a “kidney exchange” or “paired kidney donation” chain. This process can enable multiple transplants and lead to better immunological matches for recipients.
15. Avoid Projecting Moral Obligations
When others make highly self-sacrificing choices (e.g., kidney donation, challenge studies), avoid projecting your own moral obligations or discomfort onto them. Support individuals in making such choices if they want to, as it can benefit society.
16. Evaluate Marijuana Legalization Holistically
When forming an opinion on marijuana legalization, consider both its potential benefits (e.g., medical use, personal enjoyment) and negative consequences (e.g., addiction, motivation, driving impairment). This approach helps in arriving at a balanced synthesis.
17. Advocate for Consistent Marijuana Laws
Support efforts to harmonize marijuana legalization policies, particularly addressing inconsistencies between state and federal laws in the U.S. This would create a more coherent and effective regulatory environment for cannabis.
18. Leverage Drawn Visuals for Intense Themes
For creators, consider using drawn or animated visuals (e.g., graphic novels, cartoons) to explore deeper or darker themes. This medium allows for a heightened suspension of disbelief, making intense content more palatable to audiences.
19. Recognize ‘Whataboutism’ in Geopolitics
Be aware that totalitarian states often use “whataboutism” (e.g., pointing out historical flaws of liberal nations) as a technique to undermine messages of liberalism and deflect criticism. This helps in critically evaluating international discourse.
20. Utilize Graphic Novels for Conciseness
For creators, leverage the effectiveness of graphic novels to convey complex actions or emotions concisely through images. This reduces the need for extensive textual descriptions, making storytelling more efficient.
5 Key Quotes
Graphic novels in the first six months of the year were 20% of the adult fiction market. That's up from 9% last year.
Walt Hickey
When one country gets other countries to want what it wants, it might be called soft power in contrast with the hard or command power of ordering others to do what it wants.
Spencer Greenberg
The animated medium really does kind of allow you to get away with a little bit more just through the very basics of it, right? Because you have this mental acceptance of, well, the rules are gonna be a little bit different here.
Walt Hickey
I don't think that the left is emphasizing the bad parts about America. I think that like, if you have a house that you like a lot, but like, one of the little bit of the drywall is rotted in the bathroom, and somebody's like, we need to acknowledge the rotted drywall in the bathroom so that we can eventually fix the rotted drywall in the bathroom. Nobody's trying to burn the house down, right?
Walt Hickey
The local TV weather guys will oftentimes inflate the probability of rain, because they don't want to be wrong.
Walt Hickey