When voting fails (with Nicholas Gruen)
Nicholas Gruen, an economist and entrepreneur, discusses how random sampling (sortition), like citizen juries, can improve governance by addressing conflicts of interest and polarization in "unitary public goods" such as redistricting. He advocates for institutions that foster deliberation over competition.
Deep Dive Analysis
15 Topic Outline
Representation by Election vs. Representation by Sampling
Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission
Conflict of Interest and Political Parties
Competitive Groupthink and Political Polarization
The Concept of 'Losers' Consent' in Democracy
Real vs. Perceived Polarization in Communities
Unitary vs. Competitive Public Goods in Governance
Adversarial vs. Inquisitorial Legal Systems
Critique of Open Competition for Leadership and Promotion
Elections Without Candidates: The Papal Conclave Example
Improving Merit Selection in Academia and Institutions
The 'Retrovirus' Approach to Political Activism
Understanding Scientism and Practical Wisdom
Limitations of Economics as a Scientific Discipline
The Purpose-Driven Nature of Knowledge
8 Key Concepts
Representation by Sampling
This method of representing people involves taking a random selection of ordinary citizens, similar to a jury, to make decisions. It contrasts with representation by election, aiming to avoid conflicts of interest inherent in elected politicians.
Competitive Groupthink
This describes the current political system where the focus is on the groupthink of one side versus another, driven by competition rather than deliberation. It leads to parties becoming socialized into specific, often immoral, behaviors to win.
Losers' Consent
This is a fundamental aspect of democracy where those who lose an election accept the outcome as fair and agree to try again in the future. A democracy is in trouble when losers refuse to accept the results.
Competitive Public Goods
These are public services, such as schools, hospitals, or roads, where different political parties can legitimately offer varying levels of spending or taxation. These are suitable for resolution through electoral competition.
Unitary Public Goods
These are public services, like statistical agencies, judicial systems, or redistricting, where impartiality and a single, unbiased answer are desired. These areas benefit from institutions designed to be independent of political competition, often using random sampling.
Elections Without Candidates
This is a selection process, exemplified by the Catholic Church's papal conclave, where a deliberative body chooses a leader without individuals actively campaigning. It aims to select the most meritorious person by focusing on deliberation rather than a power contest.
Scientism
This is the idea that science is the ultimate or only paradigm for acquiring truth about reality. Nicholas Gruen argues this view is subtly wrong, as it overstates science's role and can lead to disciplines focusing on metrics rather than practical problem-solving.
Practical Wisdom (Phronesis)
Distinguished from 'episteme' (science), practical wisdom refers to reality-based disciplines like medicine and engineering. These fields are interested in reality insofar as it helps them build a new reality or solve problems, focusing on what works to improve the world rather than solely what necessarily is the case.
9 Questions Answered
It involves taking a random selection of ordinary people, similar to a jury, to make decisions, as exemplified by the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission which supervises the drawing of electoral boundaries.
Politicians become socialized into a professional system where party loyalty and the pursuit of power lead them to rationalize actions, such as lying or making morally questionable trade-offs, that they wouldn't undertake on their own or at the start of their careers.
Nicholas Gruen argues that much of the visible polarization is 'cosplay' or performance, and that a substantial amount of commonality and agreement exists among ordinary people on many issues, even if political rhetoric suggests deep divides.
Random sampling is beneficial for 'unitary public goods' – areas where impartiality, a single unbiased answer, and rule-setting are desired, rather than political competition (e.g., statistical agencies, judicial appointments, or redistricting).
In adversarial systems, each side introduces its own experts, leading to skepticism about their impartiality, while inquisitorial systems involve judges actively seeking independent expert advice to arrive at an unbiased answer.
Open competition for power often attracts those who desire power most, who may not be the best leaders, as they are focused on winning rather than serving or deliberating on who would be most suitable for the role.
Instead of relying solely on quantitative metrics (like citations in academia), institutions could use methods like secret ballots among peers to identify individuals genuinely admired for their contributions, even if not highly published, fostering 'bottom-up meritocracy'.
It involves introducing new institutional logic, such as citizen assemblies or sortition, funded privately, to demonstrate alternative ways of doing things. The goal is that their success will lead to incremental, transformative change by inspiring others to adopt similar methods.
Scientism, by overemphasizing science as the sole paradigm of truth, can lead to disciplines focusing on metrics and publications rather than problem-solving, resulting in findings that are not useful or even incorrect, and neglecting practical wisdom.
8 Actionable Insights
1. Implement Random Sampling in Governance
Advocate for and implement random sampling (sortition) in government, similar to citizen juries, for decisions related to “unitary public goods” like redistricting or overseeing statistical agencies. This approach mitigates conflicts of interest inherent in elected politicians and fosters more impartial, deliberative decision-making, as ordinary citizens are less driven by power and more by fairness.
2. Foster Deliberation Over Competition
Shift political and institutional processes from competitive frameworks to deliberative ones to reduce groupthink and polarization. Encourage participants to identify “red lines” and seek common ground, rather than focusing on winning, to achieve outcomes that satisfy a broader consensus.
3. Adopt “Elections Without Candidates”
For selecting leaders, particularly in high-power roles, move away from open competitions where candidates vie for power. Instead, implement systems like the Catholic Church’s papal conclave or “elections without candidates,” where a deliberative body chooses the best person based on merit, not ambition for power.
4. Seed Alternative Governance Models
Instead of trying to persuade existing political systems, build and operate alternative governance institutions (e.g., citizen assemblies) using private or crowdfunded money. This “retrovirus” approach introduces new institutional logic and demonstrates effective, deliberative democracy, inspiring broader adoption when people witness its success.
5. Embrace Practical Wisdom in Disciplines
Recognize that disciplines like medicine, engineering, and economics are fundamentally about “practical wisdom” (phronesis) – using reality-based knowledge to build a better world, rather than solely pursuing “truth for its own sake” (episteme) like pure science. Orient these fields towards problem-solving through interdisciplinary collaboration and real-world application, rather than just academic metrics.
6. Diversify Academic Merit Metrics
Reform academic promotion systems to move beyond crude metrics like citation counts, which can be gamed. Instead, incorporate methods like peer nominations (elections without candidates) to identify academics admired for their long-term, innovative, or risky work, fostering a more nuanced and genuine meritocracy.
7. Question Scientism’s Dominance
Be wary of scientism, the belief that science is the sole or ultimate path to truth, as it can misdirect efforts, especially in human-centric disciplines. Acknowledge that while science is valuable, it’s a specialized form of knowledge, and other purpose-driven, practical wisdom approaches are crucial for making the world better.
8. Ponder Simple Ideas Deeply
Adopt Charlie Munger’s advice: take a simple idea and take it seriously, dedicating time to deep pondering. This method can uncover fundamental insights that act as a “fulcrum” for transformative change, like developing a “retrovirus” for institutional reform.
7 Key Quotes
There are essentially two ways of representing the people, and they're completely different. And we're very familiar with both of them. But we've doubled down in our political system on one method, which is representation by election, and the other is representation by sampling.
Nicholas Gruen
Our whole political system is competitive groupthink, the groupthink of one side versus the groupthink of another.
Nicholas Gruen
Democracy is essentially about the losers of elections, not the winners.
Nicholas Gruen
If you set everything up as a competition, rather than understanding that everything in life is an entanglement of competition and cooperation, everything in life is like that. We've done this with promotion as well.
Nicholas Gruen
If you're giving out power, maybe you don't want, maybe the people who want it most are not necessarily the best possible population for choosing that.
Nicholas Gruen
Science is about what necessarily is the case in the universe, and there's another set of reality-based disciplines... they're forms of practical wisdom.
Nicholas Gruen
Take a simple idea and take it seriously.
Nicholas Gruen
1 Protocols
Papal Conclave (Elections Without Candidates)
Nicholas Gruen- Cardinals hold a secret ballot.
- They continue to ballot and discuss.
- They do not stop until they achieve two-thirds of a vote for a particular person.