Shreyas Doshi on pre-mortems, the LNO framework, the three levels of product work, why most execution problems are strategy problems, and ROI vs. opportunity cost thinking
Lenny Rachitsky interviews product management expert Shreyas Doshi (Yahoo, Google, Twitter, Stripe) about five core ideas: pre-mortems, the LNO framework for time management, the three levels of product work, why execution problems are often strategy problems, and prioritizing by minimizing opportunity cost. A bonus topic on high agency is also covered.
Deep Dive Analysis
10 Topic Outline
Introduction to Shreyas Doshi and his career journey
Shreyas's early life, education, and transition to product management
Key lessons from working at Yahoo, Google, Twitter, and Stripe
The power and implementation of pre-mortems
Prioritizing time with the LNO (Leverage, Neutral, Overhead) framework
Overcoming procrastination for high-leverage tasks
Understanding the three levels of product work: Impact, Execution, Optics
Why most execution problems are actually strategy or culture problems
Prioritizing by minimizing opportunity cost versus maximizing ROI
The importance of high agency for product managers
6 Key Concepts
Pre-mortem
A ritual where a team imagines a project has failed in the future and then works backward to identify what could have gone wrong. This process fosters psychological safety for team members to voice concerns and creates a shared vocabulary for potential threats.
Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants
A shared vocabulary used in premortem meetings: 'Tigers' are actual threats that could kill a project; 'Paper Tigers' are seeming threats that others worry about but you don't; 'Elephants' are unspoken concerns or realities in the room that nobody is addressing.
LNO Framework
A framework for categorizing tasks into three types: Leverage (L) tasks yield 10x-100x impact for effort, Neutral (N) tasks yield 1x-1.1x impact, and Overhead (O) tasks yield less than 1x impact. The goal is to spend more time and perfectionism on L tasks by reducing time on N and O tasks.
Three Levels of Product Work
Product work can be viewed at three levels: Impact (focus on customer/brand outcomes), Execution (focus on getting things done and hitting milestones), and Optics (focus on creating awareness and excitement). Conflicts often arise when individuals or teams operate at different default levels without explicit alignment.
Opportunity Cost Thinking
A prioritization mindset that focuses on choosing the *best* use of time by minimizing the value of the foregone alternative, rather than simply selecting tasks that offer a positive return on investment (ROI). This encourages pursuing bigger, more impactful, but potentially more ambiguous opportunities.
High Agency
A trait characterized by finding a way to achieve desired outcomes without waiting for perfect conditions or blaming circumstances. It involves strong ownership, creative execution through challenges, and a high degree of resilience, which is particularly crucial for product managers facing constant adverse conditions.
7 Questions Answered
Shreyas started his career as an engineer, but found himself doing product work without the title, enjoying understanding customer needs and creative problem-solving. He realized he wouldn't be a top engineer and increasingly became interested in product management, eventually making the switch with the support of his managers.
The core idea is to gather a team early in a project's life, imagine the project has miserably failed in the future, and then work backward to identify all potential causes of that failure. This approach helps proactively uncover and address risks that might otherwise be overlooked or unvoiced.
The LNO framework helps PMs categorize tasks into Leverage (high impact), Neutral (equal effort/impact), and Overhead (low impact). By identifying and focusing more energy and perfectionism on Leverage tasks, and spending less time on Neutral and Overhead tasks, PMs can maximize their overall impact.
Conflicts often arise because individuals or groups are defaulting to different 'levels of product work' (Impact, Execution, or Optics). For example, a PM might be focused on execution details while a CEO is focused on brand impact, leading to a fundamental mismatch in perspective rather than a disagreement on facts.
Many perceived execution problems in high-performing environments are actually symptoms of underlying strategy problems (e.g., unclear or misaligned strategies), interpersonal problems (e.g., team managers not getting along), or cultural problems (e.g., a culture that rewards individual OKR achievement over company-wide collaboration).
Instead of merely seeking tasks with a positive Return on Investment (ROI), product managers in high-leverage roles should prioritize by minimizing opportunity cost. This means focusing on the *best* use of their time and pursuing opportunities that could significantly change the business trajectory, even if they require more upfront work or are less certain than 'quick wins'.
Two effective tactics are 'placebo productivity,' where you intentionally fill the days leading up to an L-task with N and O tasks to trick yourself into feeling ready for the L-task, and changing your work location to force focus and a shift in mindset.
6 Actionable Insights
1. High Agency Mindset
Cultivate a “high agency” mindset by taking strong ownership, creatively executing through challenges, and demonstrating high resilience to achieve goals despite imperfect conditions or obstacles. This trait differentiates high-impact product managers who exceed expectations, rather than blaming circumstances.
2. Prioritize by Minimizing Opportunity Cost
In high-leverage roles, shift from prioritizing work based solely on positive Return on Investment (ROI) to minimizing opportunity cost. This means focusing on the best use of your time and resources, even if it involves ambiguous, high-upside projects, rather than just chasing numerous “quick wins” that only offer positive ROI.
3. Diagnose Root Cause Execution Problems
When execution problems persist despite temporary solutions or “band-aids,” diagnose if they stem from deeper strategy issues (e.g., unclear direction), culture problems (e.g., misaligned incentives), or interpersonal conflicts. Addressing these underlying causes directly is more effective than repeatedly solving surface-level execution issues.
4. Align Product Work Levels
Recognize that product work operates at three levels: Impact, Execution, and Optics. Understand your team’s and leadership’s default focus, and explicitly align on which level is most critical for a given situation to prevent conflict, ensure effective collaboration, and avoid miscommunication.
5. Optimize Time with LNO Framework
Categorize your tasks into Leverage (L), Neutral (N), and Overhead (O), then allocate your effort accordingly: maximize time on L tasks (10x-100x impact), perform N tasks efficiently, and minimize O tasks. To tackle difficult L tasks, use “placebo productivity” (fill preceding days with N/O tasks) and change your work location for focus.
6. Conduct Proactive Pre-Mortems
Early in a project, gather cross-functional teams and imagine the project has miserably failed six months from now, then work backward to identify potential causes (e.g., “tigers” for threats, “paper tigers” for perceived threats, “elephants” for unspoken concerns). This fosters psychological safety for voicing concerns, provides catharsis, and allows for proactive risk mitigation and action planning.
5 Key Quotes
Why do we need to wait until after things go wrong? Because like, why can't we extract these some of these insights before they go wrong?
Shreyas Doshi
When you combine high energy, sound judgment, low ego, and small teams, you just get magic.
Shreyas Doshi
The cave you fear contains the treasure that you seek.
Lenny Rachitsky
Is this the best use of my time?
Shreyas Doshi
High agency is about finding a way to get what you want without waiting for conditions to be perfect or otherwise blaming the circumstances.
Shreyas Doshi
2 Protocols
Running a Premortem Meeting
Shreyas Doshi- Invite people from every function involved in the project (e.g., engineering, sales, support, marketing, design). For large launches, consider separate meetings for engineering/product and go-to-market.
- As the leader, share the prompt: 'Imagine this project/launch has failed six months from now. What went wrong? What could have contributed to this utter failure?'
- Allocate quiet time (5-10 minutes) for participants to individually enter their 'Tigers' (actual threats), 'Paper Tigers' (seeming threats you're not worried about), and 'Elephants' (unspoken concerns) into a shared document (e.g., Coda template).
- Go around the room and have each person share their identified threats.
- After sharing, ask participants to pick the 'Tiger' that *somebody else* mentioned that they find most scary (a form of voting).
- As the leader, take the generated output, prioritize the identified threats, and create a post-premortem action plan.
- Share the action plan with the team and hold yourself accountable for making progress on mitigating the prioritized threats.
Tactics to Overcome Procrastination on High-Leverage (L) Tasks
Shreyas Doshi- **Placebo Productivity**: In the couple of days leading up to tackling an L-task, intentionally fill your time with Neutral (N) and Overhead (O) tasks, reminding yourself that you're doing them to prepare for the L-task.
- **Change of Location**: On the appointed day for an L-task, work from a different physical location than your usual spot (e.g., a coffee shop, co-working space) to force focus and a shift in mindset.