#15 Samuel Arbesman: Future-Proof Your Knowledge
Samuel Arbesman, a complexity scientist, discusses the changing nature of science and technology, exploring how to optimize learning and reading. He introduces the concepts of physics and biological thinking to approach complex systems and manage complexity.
Deep Dive Analysis
18 Topic Outline
Early Career and Introduction to Science
The Genesis of 'The Half-Life of Facts'
Impact of Understanding Knowledge Change on Learning
Sam Arbesman's Writing Process
The Interplay of Science and Art
Computational and Generative Art Explained
Influential Teachers and Life Philosophy
Physical Books vs. Digital Information
The Evolving Nature of Digital Books
Defining Success: Internal vs. External Metrics
Books That Dramatically Impacted Sam Arbesman
Overview of 'Overcomplicated' and Technological Complexity
The Challenge of Incomprehensible Technology
Approaching Technology with Humility and Questioning
Physics Thinking vs. Biological Thinking in Technology
Managing Organizational Complexity with Multiple Models
Integrating Technology Understanding in Daily Life
Current Reading List
6 Key Concepts
Mesofacts
Mesofacts are bits of information that change neither too slowly nor too rapidly, existing at a 'middle' scale. Unlike unchanging facts (e.g., number of continents) or rapidly changing facts (e.g., stock market close), mesofacts (e.g., global population) change over decades or a human lifetime, requiring mental updates that people often neglect.
Scientific Mindset
A scientific mindset involves viewing everything as 'constantly in draft form,' recognizing that knowledge is always evolving and subject to being overturned. It encourages delight in being wrong, as it signifies progress and a means of querying the world rather than holding onto static beliefs.
Computational Art
Computational art involves creating algorithms that generate artistic outputs, such as images or text. Instead of a human directly painting or drawing, a computer program is designed to produce beautiful and varied artistic results, raising questions about the nature of creativity and emotional connection.
Psychohistory
A fictional science from Isaac Asimov's 'Foundation' trilogy, psychohistory is the quantitative science of human societies. It posits that while individual humans are unpredictable, large groups exhibit regularities and rules, allowing for the prediction of societal trends and the shaping of future outcomes.
Physics Thinking
Physics thinking is an approach to understanding systems by seeking simple, overarching principles or equations that explain the vast majority of phenomena. It often involves sweeping away details to focus on abstractions and universal laws, aiming for a simplified, elegant understanding.
Biological Thinking
Biological thinking emphasizes focusing on the intricate details, cataloging diverse instances, and recognizing that exceptions and specific interactions are crucial for understanding a system. It acknowledges that complex systems, especially those that have evolved or interact with the real world, often have a messy, organic structure that requires a detailed, iterative approach.
6 Questions Answered
Understanding the transient nature of facts has made Sam more positively inclined towards technologies like Google, as they encourage looking things up more often, ensuring access to up-to-date knowledge. It has also fostered a scientific mindset, embracing being wrong and viewing all knowledge as constantly in draft form.
Both science and art are approaches to querying the world and producing beautiful things. Science is often seen as beautiful output constrained by reality and rigor, while art is beautiful output constrained by the reality of its medium. Many scientists also acknowledge the artistic elements in how questions are asked and clever experiments are designed.
For long-term happiness, success should be defined by internal metrics, focusing on what one can control, such as striving to be the best version of oneself and being true to one's abilities. Relying solely on external metrics (e.g., best-selling status, critical acclaim) can lead to perpetual unhappiness due to constant comparison and lack of control.
'Overcomplicated' explores why technologies are becoming so complex that even their creators and experts don't fully understand them or their implications. It examines the forces driving this incomprehensibility and proposes ways to approach these technologies with humility and a questioning mindset.
We should approach technologies with a humble, constantly questioning attitude, rather than fear or reverential awe. It's important to recognize the natural limits of human understanding, even for self-made technologies, and to seek ways to glimpse the underlying complexity rather than outsourcing all understanding to experts.
Managers should approach organizational complexity with humility, using multiple models of thinking and avoiding rapid, extensive changes. Recognizing that systems can be highly nonlinear and sensitive to unexpected changes requires respecting their complexity and understanding the limits of one's ability to effect change.
17 Actionable Insights
1. Internalize Success Metrics
Define success by internal metrics, focusing on doing your best and being true to your abilities, rather than solely external measures. This approach helps maintain happiness and satisfaction, as external factors are often beyond your control and can lead to constant comparison and disappointment.
2. Delight in Being Wrong
Cultivate a mindset that delights in being wrong and having previously held facts overturned, as this is the natural progression of knowledge. Recognize that everything known is constantly in draft form, which fosters a scientific approach to understanding the world and encourages continuous learning.
3. Embrace Scientific Mindset
Adopt a scientific mindset towards everything, viewing science not just as a body of knowledge but as a means of querying the world. This perspective encourages continuous questioning and understanding that information is always evolving.
4. Humble, Questioning Tech Approach
Approach technology with a humble yet constantly questioning attitude, avoiding both fear and reverential awe. This balanced perspective encourages critical engagement and helps prevent being overwhelmed by complex systems.
5. Utilize Multiple Models
Employ multiple mental models, such as “physics thinking” (seeking simple, overarching explanations) and “biological thinking” (focusing on details and exceptions), to approach complex systems. Having diverse models improves understanding and helps remove blind spots.
6. Humility with Complex Systems
Approach complex systems, whether technological or organizational, with humility, recognizing that no single mode of thinking can explain everything. This mindset encourages a deeper appreciation for complexity and the need for diverse perspectives.
7. Avoid Drastic, Rapid Changes
When managing or interacting with complex, highly nonlinear, and interconnected systems, resist the urge to make drastic changes too quickly. Respect the system’s inherent complexity and sensitivity to change, as unexpected consequences can arise.
8. Foster Playful Curiosity
Approach learning with a playful attitude and a constant sense of curiosity, rather than viewing it as rote or boring. This mindset makes the process exciting and encourages continuous exploration of new things.
9. Choose Winning Team
Opt to be the worst player on a winning team rather than the best on a losing team, as being surrounded by high-performing individuals will push you to improve. This environment provides strong role models and fosters personal growth.
10. Set Daily Writing Goal
Establish a daily goal for text creation, such as a thousand words, without focusing on perfection or a single topic. This consistent practice helps accumulate content and overcome initial inertia, allowing for later refinement.
11. Prioritize Morning Work
Aim to complete the majority of your primary work, such as writing, as early as possible in the morning. This ensures the main goal is accomplished, freeing the rest of the day from its burden and providing a sense of achievement.
12. Balance Info Sources
Maintain a balance between consulting older, perennially wise sources like physical books and newer, up-to-date information found online (e.g., Wikipedia). This approach provides both foundational knowledge and the most current understanding of the world.
13. Glimpse Tech’s Inner Workings
Actively seek ways to understand what’s happening beneath the surface of technology, rather than outsourcing all understanding to experts. This could involve using the command line or paying attention to progress bars, providing a better sense of underlying complexity.
14. Use Simulations for Complexity
Employ simulations to gain a better appreciation for how complex systems, like technologies or cities, operate. Simulations can reveal nonlinearities and operational bounds, helping to understand how a system might behave unexpectedly.
15. Strive for Open Science
Advocate for and seek out scientific research that is open, interconnected, and regularly updated. This approach ensures access to the most current state of knowledge, prevents reinvention of ideas, and optimizes resource use within the scientific community.
16. Model Reading Behavior
Encourage reading in children by modeling the behavior yourself, such as being seen with books. This provides a positive example and fosters an early interest in reading and learning.
17. Look Up Facts
When debates arise, especially during discussions, make it a habit to actively look up information to verify facts. This promotes accuracy, curiosity, and a shared pursuit of correct knowledge.
5 Key Quotes
Science is, it's a body of knowledge, but even more important than that, science is really a means of querying the world. And I think recognizing that everything we know is constantly in draft form is really like, like that's the way we should be thinking about the world.
Sam Arbesman
If you're the worst player on a winning team, there's people around you who are all going to kind of force you to get better.
Sam Arbesman
If your only measures of success are truly external measures, you're really, um, never going to be happy.
Sam Arbesman
There are natural limits to what the human mind can understand. And I think people kind of recognize this, but at the same time over the past, maybe century or two, there's been this like somewhat like triumphalist sense when it comes to science that like, if there's a question, no matter what, if we put our minds to it, we can understand everything. Um, and, and I think, and that's, that's not always true.
Sam Arbesman
If a technology has a messy organic feel to it, has evolved over time and kind of accreted bits and pieces, um, if it looks biological, maybe we can actually learn from how biologists look at biological systems.
Sam Arbesman
1 Protocols
Sam Arbesman's Book Writing Process
Sam Arbesman- Set a daily goal of creating a certain amount of text (e.g., 1000 words), without needing it to be good or on a single topic.
- Accumulate enough text to reach book length.
- Print out the entire manuscript and begin rearranging it, identifying parts to remove, flesh out, or connect.
- Go through an iterative smoothing process until a complete draft is formed.
- Share the introductory chapter with a trusted reader (e.g., spouse) for feedback on clarity and alignment with intended goals.
- Revise the introductory chapter based on feedback, then retool the rest of the book to match the clarified vision.
- Submit to an editor and continue an iterative, repetitive process of refining, ensuring minimal discrepancy between intent and actual writing.
- Identify and remove whole sections or topics that, while interesting, do not significantly add to or align with the book's core theme, tightening the narrative.