#47 Adam Robinson: Winning at the Great Game (Part 1)
Adam Robinson, author, educator, and hedge fund advisor, discusses his "Great Game" philosophy, emphasizing connection, fun, and expecting magic. He also shares insights on technology's impact, the keys to happiness, and his unique approach to investing and education.
Deep Dive Analysis
13 Topic Outline
Introduction to Adam Robinson and 'The Great Game'
Adam's Three Rules for Life and Happiness
Technology's Impact on Attention and Loneliness Epidemic
The Paradox of Happiness and Finding Yourself Through Others
Changing the World by Changing Questions or Answers
How to Cultivate Better Thinking and Embrace Surprise
Critique of Fundamental Analysis in Investing
Understanding Investment Trends and Trader Behavior
Adam's Trader Hall of Fame and Market Divergences
Cracking the SAT and Data-Driven Education
Insights from the Stuyvesant Test Prep Program
The Importance of Modeling Struggle and Persistence
The Difference Between Passing a Test and True Understanding
7 Key Concepts
The Great Game
Life itself, viewed as a series of serious, competitive games (career, politics, education) that can be played with a win-win mindset. Adam Robinson's book, 'An Invitation to The Great Game,' offers an alternative game to the current win-lose societal dynamics.
Loneliness Epidemic
A serious societal issue, particularly in the U.S., exacerbated by technology designed to hijack attention and heighten emotions. This leads to isolation, increased anger, and a rise in mental health challenges like teenage suicide, especially in tech-centric areas.
Confirmation Bias Engine
A concept describing how technology (like Google or Facebook) is engineered to reflect users' existing views and preferences back to them. This process hardens individual opinions, limits exposure to diverse perspectives, and can be monetized by driving clicks through outrage or affirmation.
Anticipating the Anticipation of Others
A successful investing approach, coined by John Maynard Keynes, that involves using game theory to identify different groups of investors expressing varying views of the future. The goal is to determine which group is probabilistically correct based on historical patterns of their collective behavior.
Investment Trend
Defined as the spread of an idea, whether it's a product, a social movement, or a financial asset. Trends pass through stages like innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards, as described by Everett Rogers in 'The Diffusion of Innovation'.
Intrinsic Value (Critique)
A term coined by Benjamin Graham in 'Security Analysis,' which Adam Robinson argues is a 'fraud.' He contends that it is undefined, unquantifiable, and assumes a 'true value' for an asset that doesn't exist in a practical market context, making it an impractical basis for investment decisions.
Joe Bloggs Algorithm
A test-taking strategy developed by Adam Robinson for standardized tests like the SAT. For hard questions, which are designed to lead plausible but incorrect answers, one should identify what the 'average' or 'obvious' answer (what Joe Bloggs would choose) would be and then select the opposite.
12 Questions Answered
'The Great Game' is Adam Robinson's concept for life itself, viewing it as a series of serious, competitive games (like career, politics, education) that can be played with a win-win mindset, aiming to offer a positive alternative to current societal challenges.
Adam's three rules are: connecting with others first and foremost, creating fun and delight for others in any situation, and leaning into each moment and every encounter expecting magic or miracles.
The world is experiencing a global loneliness epidemic, largely fed and accelerated by technology designed to hijack attention and heighten emotions, leading to increased anger and a lack of positive visions.
The key to happiness is not to look for it directly, but to be fully engaged in life and to focus attention on others and being of service, as happiness often catches one by surprise as a byproduct of these actions.
According to Adam Robinson, there are two ways: either change the questions a person asks, or provide them with more inspired answers to the questions they are already asking.
Thinking better involves a relentless asking of questions, listening to one's unconscious insights (which often surprise), and embracing anomalies or surprises as opportunities to correct one's model of the world.
Fundamental analysis, as taught by Benjamin Graham, relies on the concept of 'intrinsic value,' which Adam Robinson argues is a 'fraud' because it's undefined, unquantifiable, and assumes a 'true value' that doesn't exist in a practical market context.
Adam's approach uses game theory to identify when different groups of investors (stocks, bonds, metals, currencies, energy) express conflicting views of the future, and then determines which group is probabilistically more often correct based on historical patterns.
Adam cracked the SAT by identifying patterns in question difficulty (easy, medium, or hard) and developing strategies like the 'Joe Bloggs' algorithm, which advised students to choose the opposite of the seemingly plausible answer on hard questions.
The study found that the number one positive factor for student improvement was having a father born in another country and a mother born in the United States, as this combination provided immigrant drive and strong English language skills, making race irrelevant as a factor for improvement.
Parents should model struggle and persistence, letting their children know that learning is hard and demonstrating how to stay with a challenge until it is overcome, rather than giving up.
Passing a test often involves rote learning or specific strategies to select answers quickly, which can be different from the process of deep understanding that requires confusion, groping, and a willingness to explore without immediate answers.
27 Actionable Insights
1. Direct Attention to Task or Others
To manage negative emotions like doubt, fear, frustration, or loneliness, redirect your attention either to the task at hand or to others, as focusing on yourself can be counterproductive.
2. Connect with Others First
Prioritize connecting with others in all situations, as this is a fundamental lesson for personal and professional success and a way to find yourself.
3. Create Fun and Delight
Make an effort to create fun and delight for others in any situation, as this fosters positive interactions and can transform serious encounters into engaging games.
4. Expect Magic in Every Encounter
Approach each moment and every encounter with the expectation of magic or miracles, fostering a positive and open mindset for unfolding possibilities.
5. Embrace Life’s Pain
Do not try to escape the pain of human existence; instead, embrace and accept it, as there is freedom to be found in this acceptance.
6. Don’t Seek Happiness Directly
Avoid actively searching for happiness, love, or success, as these are byproducts that often catch you by surprise when you are fully engaged in your life.
7. Be Fully Engaged in Life
The secret to happiness is to be fully engaged in your life, as happiness is a byproduct that arises from deep involvement rather than direct pursuit.
8. Find Yourself Through Others
Instead of focusing on yourself to ‘find yourself,’ direct your attention and service towards others, as true self-discovery occurs in the midst of relationships and contribution.
9. Cultivate Positive Visions
Counter the prevalent negative global conversation by creating and offering positive visions for the world, for yourself, or for specific groups, and then enrolling others in that vision.
10. Model Struggle and Persistence
For parents, model what it means to struggle with something and persist without giving up, as children need to see this behavior to learn resilience and the value of hard work.
11. Expect Learning to Be Hard
Understand that learning is inherently hard; expecting difficulty prevents you from thinking the problem is with you when you encounter challenges, instead attributing it to the material.
12. Change What Isn’t Working
If you are not getting the results you want, change what you are doing rather than simply doing more of the same, adopting a detached and experimental approach.
13. Try the Opposite Action
When unsure how to change what you’re doing, try taking a step in the opposite direction to see if it yields different, more effective results.
14. Relentlessly Ask Questions
Improve your thinking by relentlessly asking questions, allowing each answer to suggest further questions, fostering a continuous chain of inquiry.
15. Listen to Your Unconscious
Cultivate the ability to listen to your unconscious mind, as great insights and truths often come spontaneously and unbidden, surprising you with their revelation.
16. Seek Anomalies and Surprises
Actively look for anomalies and things that surprise you, as these indicate that your current model of the world is incorrect and present valuable learning opportunities.
17. Use ‘Doesn’t Make Sense’ Signal
When someone dismisses a situation by saying ‘it doesn’t make any sense’ (e.g., a price keeps going lower despite logical reasons), it indicates their model is flawed, signaling a potential opportunity to act on the counter-intuitive trend.
18. Define Your Investing Edge
Before engaging in investing, clearly define and understand your unique edge, as the market is a gladiatorial pit where professionals are constantly seeking to profit from those without a clear advantage.
19. Develop Testable Investing Process
Create a repeatable and articulable investing process that can be formalized and objectively tested, allowing for continuous improvement and adaptation.
20. Anticipate Others’ Anticipation
For successful investing, anticipate the anticipation of other market participants by observing how different groups of investors express their views of the future and determining which group is probabilistically correct.
21. Follow Bond Traders’ Cues
When stock traders and bond traders disagree on the economy’s direction, follow the bond traders, as they are typically right and early 99 out of 100 times.
22. Follow Metal Traders for Rates
For insights into the direction of interest rates, observe metal traders’ actions (e.g., copper divided by gold), as their simple, tangible, and long-term view has been consistently accurate for decades.
23. Apply ‘Joe Bloggs’ Strategy
On difficult test questions, ask yourself what ‘Joe Bloggs’ (the average test-taker) would do, and then choose the opposite answer, as hard questions are designed to lead to plausible but incorrect choices.
24. Focus on ‘Who to Be’
In any situation, shift your focus from ‘what do I need to do’ to ‘who do I need to be,’ emphasizing identity and presence over mere action.
25. Treat Interviews as a Game
Approach job interviews by asking, ‘How can I create fun and delight for this person right now?’ to transform the interaction into an engaging game, increasing your chances of being hired.
26. Inhale/Exhale Attention Rhythm
Practice a biological rhythm of attention: when alone, ‘inhale’ by focusing on your world of ideas; when in the world, ’exhale’ by focusing solely on others.
27. Aim to Fail at Highest Level
In competitive contests or tests designed to make you fail, aim to fail at the highest possible level, as this mindset encourages pushing boundaries and achieving peak performance.
9 Key Quotes
Technology is designed to get us to respond. And the way to do that is to heighten emotions and hijack attention. And it does so with ferocious efficiency.
Adam Robinson
The paradox of the most important things in life, happiness, love, success, is that you can't look for it.
Adam Robinson
I never know what I'm thinking until I say it.
Adam Robinson
Surprise is always what surprise is telling you, Shane, is this. Your model of the world is incorrect, which is fantastic. It's a learning opportunity.
Adam Robinson
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
John Maynard Keynes
If you're in a poker game for 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.
Warren Buffett
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.
Arthur Schopenhauer
No, no, you're not thinking. You're just being logical.
Niels Bohr
If you haven't gotten what you wanted, it's a sign either that you didn't really want it, or you tried to negotiate over the price.
Rudyard Kipling
4 Protocols
Adam Robinson's Three Rules for Life
Adam Robinson- Connect with others, first and foremost.
- Create fun and delight for the other, no matter what you're doing in any situation.
- Lean into each moment and every encounter, expecting magic or miracles.
Algorithm for Finding Investment Opportunities
Adam Robinson- Identify situations where things 'don't make sense' to conventional thinking (e.g., a price not moving as expected despite logical reasons).
- Recognize that this indicates a conflict between a person's model of the world and actual observations, often due to confirmation bias or denial.
- Dive in and explore *why* the anomaly is occurring, as it often reveals powerful underlying reasons or mispriced assets.
Algorithm for Changing the World/Someone's Thinking
Adam Robinson- Change the questions that person asks.
- Offer more inspired answers to the questions people are already asking.
Joe Bloggs SAT Test-Taking Strategy (for hard questions)
Adam Robinson- Identify the question type (easy, medium, or hard, based on its position in the section).
- If it's a hard question, ask yourself: 'What would Joe Bloggs (the average test-taker) do?'
- Select the opposite of what Joe Bloggs would do, as hard questions are designed to lead plausible but incorrect answers.