#87 Hannah Fry: The Role of Algorithms
Mathematician Hannah Fry discusses the pervasive role of math in modern society, from engaging students to understanding algorithms and human behavior. She explores how mathematical concepts can offer insights into dating, relationships, and critical decision-making, particularly during a pandemic.
Deep Dive Analysis
14 Topic Outline
Early Interest in Mathematics and School Engagement
The Invisibility of Math in Modern Algorithms
Humanizing Mathematics Through Stories and People
Being Human in the Age of Algorithms
The Dangers of Algorithms Without Human Context
Algorithms in Medicine: Challenges and Ethical Considerations
Transparency and Regulation of Algorithms
When Algorithms or Humans Should Make Decisions
Math's Role in Pandemic Decision-Making
Understanding and Communicating Exponential Growth
Kasparov vs. Deep Blue: Human Weaknesses and AI
Applying Math Concepts to Human Relationships
Optimal Stopping Theory for Dating
Mathematics of Arguments in Relationships
3 Key Concepts
Exponential Growth
This describes a situation where something changes by a fixed fraction in a fixed period. It is often counterintuitive because it leads to outcomes that are far larger than typically imagined, such as a virus doubling every few days, quickly leading to massive numbers.
Optimal Stopping Theory
A mathematical problem for making decisions when faced with a sequence of opportunities, where the goal is to stop at the 'perfect' time. Rules typically include not being able to go back on a rejection or look ahead after making a choice.
Negativity Threshold
In the context of relationship dynamics, this refers to how much annoyance a person can tolerate before reacting to their partner. Research suggests that couples with low negativity thresholds, who address small issues quickly, tend to have better long-term success.
11 Questions Answered
Schools can promote better engagement by demonstrating the real-world usefulness and dramatic importance of math in virtually every aspect of the modern world, which can make the subject come alive for students.
For modern technology like mobile phones and algorithms to work effectively for the user, the underlying complex mathematics must be hidden behind the scenes, making it invisible to the average person.
Math can be made more interesting by anchoring its stories to the people involved, showcasing the human element, passion, and struggles of mathematicians throughout history, much like how human stories captivate audiences in other fields.
The danger is that algorithms, when built in isolation and then planted into society, can lead to catastrophic consequences, including perpetuating biases (gender, racial) and causing humans to blindly defer to machines, abdicating critical thinking.
Algorithms are ideal for consistent, clear decisions in critical systems like nuclear power stations or flying airplanes, where human inconsistency is a risk. However, humans are crucial for social decisions where algorithms can make catastrophic mistakes, and human oversight is needed to prevent blind deference.
Math, particularly through epidemiological models and data analysis, acts as a crucial weapon by predicting future spread and guiding government policies and strategies when pharmaceutical interventions or vaccines are not yet available.
Exponential growth is counterintuitive because it doesn't just mean 'big' but specifically refers to something changing by a fixed fraction in a fixed period, leading to outcomes that are 'beyond imagining' and often underestimated by human intuition.
Algorithms can make 'stupid mistakes' by picking up on irrelevant factors (like the type of scanner or a ruler in a photo) rather than the actual medical condition. Furthermore, being too good at detecting all cancerous cells could lead to unnecessary and invasive treatments for benign conditions that would never become problematic.
While transparency is important, open-sourcing proprietary algorithms might be 'too much and too little.' It's too much because understanding the code requires vast technical knowledge, and too little because it could stifle innovation by removing commercial viability. An FDA-like regulatory body might be a better alternative for oversight.
Deep Blue exploited Kasparov's human weaknesses by being deliberately coded to introduce random delays in its responses, making it appear to be deeply calculating. This tactic 'psyched out' Kasparov, causing him to second-guess the machine and ultimately leading to his defeat.
Math can offer insights into various aspects of love life, such as determining the optimal number of people to date before settling down, understanding which online dating photos work best, designing wedding seating plans, and analyzing the dynamics of arguments in long-term relationships.
13 Actionable Insights
1. Low Negativity Threshold in Relationships
For long-term relationship success, address minor annoyances and issues quickly and directly as they emerge, rather than letting them fester. This ’low negativity threshold’ approach allows for continuous repair and prevents bottled-up frustrations from escalating into larger conflicts.
2. Optimal Dating Strategy: 37% Rule
Apply the ‘37% rule’ to dating: spend the first 37% of your dating life exploring without commitment. After this initial period, choose to settle down with the very next person encountered who surpasses all previous partners in suitability.
3. Balance Human and Algorithmic Decisions
Understand that algorithms are superior for consistent, precise tasks, but human oversight remains critical for complex social decisions where machines can make catastrophic errors. Always keep a human in the loop for decisions with significant societal impact.
4. Resist Algorithmic Responsibility Abdication
Actively resist the human tendency to abdicate responsibility by blindly following algorithmic recommendations, as this can lead to cognitive shortcuts and poor decisions. Design systems to prevent this by requiring human engagement and critical review at the decision interface.
5. Integrate Algorithms Thoughtfully
When designing or deploying algorithms, always consider their integration with the human world and society, rather than evaluating them in isolation. This prevents catastrophic consequences by anticipating how people will interact with and be affected by the technology.
6. Design Algorithms for Human Oversight
When designing algorithmic systems, provide users with multiple options and a clear opportunity to review or overrule the machine’s suggestions. This approach prevents blind trust and allows for human sanity checks, mitigating potential errors.
7. Make AI Systems Interrogatable
Design AI and machine learning systems to be transparent and allow human experts to interrogate their decision-making processes. This ‘opens the box’ beyond a simple yes/no answer, enabling professionals to understand and verify the AI’s conclusions.
8. Regulate Algorithms via Independent Boards
Support the establishment of independent regulatory bodies, akin to the FDA for pharmaceuticals, to thoroughly interrogate, stress-test, and approve algorithms. This approach ensures accountability and addresses transparency concerns without hindering innovation.
9. Beware Algorithm Over-Detection
Exercise caution when deploying algorithms for detection, particularly in critical fields like medicine, as being overly sensitive can lead to the identification of benign issues. This can result in unnecessary and invasive treatments for conditions that pose no real threat.
10. Grasp True Exponential Growth
To better comprehend rapidly changing phenomena, understand that exponential growth means a fixed fraction change over a fixed period, not merely a large increase. This counterintuitive concept is crucial for accurately anticipating future developments.
11. Humanize Complex Subjects
To make complex subjects more engaging, connect them to human stories and the people involved in their development or application. This approach leverages our natural inclination towards narratives, making the subject more relatable and alive.
12. Show Subject’s Real-World Utility
When teaching or learning a complex subject, actively seek and demonstrate its practical applications and importance in the modern world. This approach can make the subject more engaging and relevant.
13. Daily Practice Builds Enjoyment
Consistently practice a subject daily, even for a short period (e.g., one page of a textbook), to significantly improve your understanding and skill. This improvement fosters enjoyment, making the subject feel less like hard work.
5 Key Quotes
You can't just build an algorithm, put it on a shelf and decide whether you think it's good or bad completely in isolation. You have to think about how that algorithm actually integrates with the world that you're embedding in.
Hannah Fry
To fly a plane, you need three things, a computer, a pilot, a human and a dog. And the, the computer is there to fly the plane, the human is there to feed the dog, and the dog is there to bite the human if ever it touches the computer.
Hannah Fry
I always think, so I'm a big fan, actually, of Formula One. And the reason why I like it, if I'm honest with you, is because I think of it as a giant maths competition, just with, you know, a bit of glamour on top.
Hannah Fry
The people who have the best chance at long-term success are actually the people who've got really low negativity thresholds.
Hannah Fry
I think that judges are a lot more like them [Japanese tourists who blindly followed a satnav] than we might want them to be.
Hannah Fry
1 Protocols
Optimal Dating Strategy (Optimal Stopping Theory)
Hannah Fry- Spend the first 37% of your dating life having a nice time and playing the field, not taking anything too seriously.
- After that period, settle down with the next person who comes along that is better than everyone you've seen before.