Kenneth Stanley: Set The Right Objectives
Kenneth Stanley, AI researcher and author of "Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned," discusses how ambitious objectives, metrics, and accountability can paradoxically hinder innovation and progress. He advocates for embracing "interestingness" and novelty over strict objective-setting to foster true discovery.
Deep Dive Analysis
14 Topic Outline
The Paradox of Setting Ambitious Objectives
Serendipity and Unplanned Discoveries
Distinguishing Modest from Ambitious Objectives
Critique of Metrics and Assessment in Complex Problems
The Education System: A Case Study in Flawed Assessment
The Need for Counterintuitive Stepping Stones
Rethinking Accountability and Peer Review
Innovation as an Evolutionary Process
The Crucial Role of 'Interestingness' in Discovery
Societal Fear of Subjective Judgment and Risk-Taking
Critiquing Grandiose, Unfounded Objectives
Empowering Innovation within Organizations
Heuristic: Avoiding Ideas That Make Too Much Sense
Heuristic: Embracing Novelty and Unpredictability
5 Key Concepts
Objective Paradox
This paradox suggests that setting an ambitious objective can actually block one's ability to achieve it. It implies that by strictly defining a goal, especially a complex one, you might inadvertently limit the exploration of necessary, counterintuitive paths to reach it.
Deception in Metrics
This refers to the problem where short-term improvements in a metric do not guarantee long-term success or achievement of an ambitious objective. Metrics can lead to investing in deceptive paths that ultimately result in dead ends, especially in complex problems where true progress is not linear or obvious.
Counterintuitive Stepping Stones
These are unexpected or non-obvious intermediate steps that are crucial for achieving ambitious goals. Because hard problems haven't been solved, their solutions likely involve paths that don't initially 'make sense' or align with conventional metrics, making them difficult to detect and pursue in objective-driven cultures.
Interestingness
This is described as the 'magic sauce' of human innovation, referring to the subjective judgment of experts about what has potential or sparks curiosity, even if it doesn't immediately align with objective metrics. It's a key driver for discovering novel stepping stones that lead to revolutionary outcomes.
Novelty
Novelty means something that hasn't been tried before, is fundamentally different from past approaches, and is a large component of 'interestingness.' Pursuing novelty often involves deviating from established paths and comfortable routines, which is essential for true innovation.
7 Questions Answered
The core problem is that for ambitious objectives, trying harder often doesn't help, and being too tied to a specific vision of accomplishment prevents openness to unexpected and unplanned discoveries, which are often the true stepping stones to innovation.
Metrics fail because they cannot detect counterintuitive stepping stones, which are necessary for solving hard problems. If the true paths to progress don't look like what the metrics are designed to measure, they become useless and can lead to deceptive investments in unproductive paths.
Accountability can be more nuanced, focusing on recognizing and disseminating 'interesting' stepping stones through social networks, such as a network of teachers. Peer review, when structured correctly, can allow experts to make unique, subjective assessments of what is valuable and innovative, rather than relying on centralized, global criteria.
Interestingness is the 'magic sauce' that drives human innovation, allowing civilization to create amazing artifacts and genres. It leverages human sensitivity to what is novel and potentially valuable, and experts' subjective judgments about interestingness are crucial for identifying revolutionary paths.
Revolutionary breakthroughs often come from counterintuitive stepping stones that don't initially make sense. If an idea makes too much sense, it's likely obvious and will be pursued by many, making it less likely to lead to truly novel or transformative outcomes.
Nature's evolution acts like a search or learning algorithm that discovers solutions to countless problems in a single run by constantly trying variations without a predefined objective. This process, driven by what is 'interesting' in an abstract sense (like the ability to reproduce), highlights the value of prolific experimentation and risk-taking.
While such claims might rally interest and resources, they are often based on speculation rather than a recognition of actual stepping stones. True visionaries are those who identify when the necessary components for an innovation have snapped into place, rather than just predicting distant, unproven futures.
20 Actionable Insights
1. Discard Security Blanket Thinking
Stop relying on assessment, accountability, objectives, and metrics as a ‘security blanket’ that only makes you feel better but doesn’t actually work for complex problems; instead, acknowledge the inconvenient and difficult reality of innovation.
2. Avoid Strict Ambitious Objectives
For ambitious goals, avoid setting strict objectives and associated metrics, as this can paradoxically block your ability to achieve the desired outcome and lead you down deceptive, dead-end paths.
3. Embrace Subjective “Interestingness”
Overcome the cultural fear of subjective judgment and actively engage with the question of ‘what is interesting,’ especially for experts, as this ‘magic sauce’ of human intuition is crucial for innovation and requires deep insight.
4. Proliferate Stepping Stone Candidates
For complex problems, generate and explore a diverse ‘portfolio’ of potential ‘stepping stone candidates’ or experiments, understanding that some will not pay off, but this proliferation is essential for discovering true progress.
5. Tolerate Risk and Failure
Embrace and tolerate the risk of experiments not working out, as this willingness to accept failure is crucial for allowing new ‘stepping stones’ and innovative solutions to proliferate and ultimately lead to breakthroughs.
6. Adopt Evolutionary Experimentation
Approach ambitious goals with an evolutionary mindset by trying numerous small experiments (‘mutations’), propagating those that yield interesting insights, and doing so ‘blindly’ without knowing the ultimate best results.
7. Prioritize “Interesting” Stepping Stones
Shift accountability from solely metric-driven progress to recognizing and rewarding ‘interesting’ stepping stones, even if they are not objectively detectable by conventional assessment techniques, as these are the true drivers of innovation.
8. Cultivate Effective Serendipity
Instead of strictly pursuing objectives, actively create situations and environments that set you up for effective serendipity, as many important discoveries and innovations arise unexpectedly.
9. Disseminate Interesting Discoveries
Establish systems and cultures that facilitate the dissemination of interesting discoveries and effective practices throughout relevant social networks to foster widespread improvement and innovation.
10. Empower Individual Peer Judgment
Foster a peer review culture that disentangles individual judgment from monolithic global views, allowing experts to express unique assessments, follow up on potential, and build upon ideas that others might not immediately recognize as valuable.
11. Avoid “Too Much Sense” Ideas
When seeking revolutionary outcomes, be wary of ideas that ‘make too much sense’ because truly transformative stepping stones are often counterintuitive and appear strange or nonsensical at first, making them less likely to be pursued by others.
12. Pursue Unpredictable Paths
Intentionally deviate from predictable paths or what others expect you to do next, as predictable actions are likely to be pursued by others, while unpredictable ones offer opportunities for novel and truly innovative contributions.
13. Embrace Novelty and Deviation
Actively seek novelty by pursuing ideas and paths that haven’t been tried before and fundamentally differ from past approaches, as this deviation from the familiar is a core component of interestingness and drives innovation.
14. Continuously Deviate from Comfort
To maintain innovation, intentionally expend energy to deviate from comfortable, successful, and predictable paths, even if it’s scary, as sticking to what you’re known for can lead to a rut and reduce your innovative output over time.
15. Follow True Stepping-Stone Visionaries
Distinguish between speculative ‘visionaries’ who set ambitious goals without knowing the path, and true visionaries who recognize when the necessary ‘stepping stones’ and technologies have genuinely snapped into place, as the latter are the ones to follow for actual progress.
16. Focus on Interesting Explorations
Engage in explorations within a domain because they are ‘interesting,’ even if the grandiose objective is unrealistic, as this process unearths valuable ‘stepping stones’ that can lead to other useful and innovative side effects.
17. Strategically Tolerate Risk
Acknowledge that while some risks are too high (e.g., national economy), many domains, like scientific research, have ample room for risk-taking and experimentation; carefully assess tolerable risk levels for each specific system.
18. Reform Innovation-Focused Departments
Critically examine and reform departments explicitly tasked with innovation within organizations, as they often operate with objective-driven methods that are counterproductive and force innovators to leave to pursue their ideas.
19. Advocate for Principled Innovation
Use well-founded arguments (like those in the book) to advocate for a principled approach to innovation within your organization, even if it challenges the prevailing objective-driven culture, to empower change without appearing ‘wacky.’
20. Distinguish Objective Types
Understand that objectives are good when modest (achievable, done many times) but problematic when ambitious (don’t know how to do), and apply critiques primarily to the latter.
5 Key Quotes
You might like assessment and accountability and objectives and metrics because they make you feel better because it feels like we're making sure that nothing bad will happen. But you have to recognize it's just a security blanket. It doesn't work.
Ken Stanley
If the actual stepping stones that lead to where we want to go are counterintuitive, in other words, they're not what you would expect, then the metrics are useless.
Ken Stanley
Interestingness is the magic sauce. And that's what I think humans are really good at.
Ken Stanley
If you give me something that makes a lot of sense, I basically think, well, someone's going to follow it. It's guaranteed. It makes sense, but it's not exciting enough for me because like, I know it's going to get followed.
Ken Stanley
It's not like we can just fully critique somebody like that and like dismiss them, but they're not doing that. So I think to be fair, like in terms of who you want to lionize, I think you have to be fair, like to, to at least acknowledge that like, that's not what they're actually doing. They're not just saying like, this is culturally like a good place for us to be interested. They're making claims that are not really well-founded.
Ken Stanley