Kenneth Stanley: Set The Right Objectives

Oct 4, 2022
Overview

Kenneth Stanley, AI researcher and author of "Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned," discusses how ambitious objectives, metrics, and accountability can paradoxically hinder innovation and progress. He advocates for embracing "interestingness" and novelty over strict objective-setting to foster true discovery.

At a Glance
20 Insights
55m 29s Duration
14 Topics
5 Concepts

Deep Dive Analysis

The Paradox of Setting Ambitious Objectives

Serendipity and Unplanned Discoveries

Distinguishing Modest from Ambitious Objectives

Critique of Metrics and Assessment in Complex Problems

The Education System: A Case Study in Flawed Assessment

The Need for Counterintuitive Stepping Stones

Rethinking Accountability and Peer Review

Innovation as an Evolutionary Process

The Crucial Role of 'Interestingness' in Discovery

Societal Fear of Subjective Judgment and Risk-Taking

Critiquing Grandiose, Unfounded Objectives

Empowering Innovation within Organizations

Heuristic: Avoiding Ideas That Make Too Much Sense

Heuristic: Embracing Novelty and Unpredictability

Objective Paradox

This paradox suggests that setting an ambitious objective can actually block one's ability to achieve it. It implies that by strictly defining a goal, especially a complex one, you might inadvertently limit the exploration of necessary, counterintuitive paths to reach it.

Deception in Metrics

This refers to the problem where short-term improvements in a metric do not guarantee long-term success or achievement of an ambitious objective. Metrics can lead to investing in deceptive paths that ultimately result in dead ends, especially in complex problems where true progress is not linear or obvious.

Counterintuitive Stepping Stones

These are unexpected or non-obvious intermediate steps that are crucial for achieving ambitious goals. Because hard problems haven't been solved, their solutions likely involve paths that don't initially 'make sense' or align with conventional metrics, making them difficult to detect and pursue in objective-driven cultures.

Interestingness

This is described as the 'magic sauce' of human innovation, referring to the subjective judgment of experts about what has potential or sparks curiosity, even if it doesn't immediately align with objective metrics. It's a key driver for discovering novel stepping stones that lead to revolutionary outcomes.

Novelty

Novelty means something that hasn't been tried before, is fundamentally different from past approaches, and is a large component of 'interestingness.' Pursuing novelty often involves deviating from established paths and comfortable routines, which is essential for true innovation.

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What is the core problem with setting ambitious objectives?

The core problem is that for ambitious objectives, trying harder often doesn't help, and being too tied to a specific vision of accomplishment prevents openness to unexpected and unplanned discoveries, which are often the true stepping stones to innovation.

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Why do traditional metrics and assessments often fail for complex problems like education?

Metrics fail because they cannot detect counterintuitive stepping stones, which are necessary for solving hard problems. If the true paths to progress don't look like what the metrics are designed to measure, they become useless and can lead to deceptive investments in unproductive paths.

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How can accountability be maintained in systems like education without relying on flawed standardized metrics?

Accountability can be more nuanced, focusing on recognizing and disseminating 'interesting' stepping stones through social networks, such as a network of teachers. Peer review, when structured correctly, can allow experts to make unique, subjective assessments of what is valuable and innovative, rather than relying on centralized, global criteria.

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What role does 'interestingness' play in human innovation?

Interestingness is the 'magic sauce' that drives human innovation, allowing civilization to create amazing artifacts and genres. It leverages human sensitivity to what is novel and potentially valuable, and experts' subjective judgments about interestingness are crucial for identifying revolutionary paths.

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Why should one avoid ideas that 'make too much sense' when seeking revolutionary breakthroughs?

Revolutionary breakthroughs often come from counterintuitive stepping stones that don't initially make sense. If an idea makes too much sense, it's likely obvious and will be pursued by many, making it less likely to lead to truly novel or transformative outcomes.

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How does nature's evolutionary process offer a model for innovation?

Nature's evolution acts like a search or learning algorithm that discovers solutions to countless problems in a single run by constantly trying variations without a predefined objective. This process, driven by what is 'interesting' in an abstract sense (like the ability to reproduce), highlights the value of prolific experimentation and risk-taking.

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What is the risk of lionizing visionaries who make grandiose, unfounded claims about future achievements?

While such claims might rally interest and resources, they are often based on speculation rather than a recognition of actual stepping stones. True visionaries are those who identify when the necessary components for an innovation have snapped into place, rather than just predicting distant, unproven futures.

1. Discard Security Blanket Thinking

Stop relying on assessment, accountability, objectives, and metrics as a ‘security blanket’ that only makes you feel better but doesn’t actually work for complex problems; instead, acknowledge the inconvenient and difficult reality of innovation.

2. Avoid Strict Ambitious Objectives

For ambitious goals, avoid setting strict objectives and associated metrics, as this can paradoxically block your ability to achieve the desired outcome and lead you down deceptive, dead-end paths.

3. Embrace Subjective “Interestingness”

Overcome the cultural fear of subjective judgment and actively engage with the question of ‘what is interesting,’ especially for experts, as this ‘magic sauce’ of human intuition is crucial for innovation and requires deep insight.

4. Proliferate Stepping Stone Candidates

For complex problems, generate and explore a diverse ‘portfolio’ of potential ‘stepping stone candidates’ or experiments, understanding that some will not pay off, but this proliferation is essential for discovering true progress.

5. Tolerate Risk and Failure

Embrace and tolerate the risk of experiments not working out, as this willingness to accept failure is crucial for allowing new ‘stepping stones’ and innovative solutions to proliferate and ultimately lead to breakthroughs.

6. Adopt Evolutionary Experimentation

Approach ambitious goals with an evolutionary mindset by trying numerous small experiments (‘mutations’), propagating those that yield interesting insights, and doing so ‘blindly’ without knowing the ultimate best results.

7. Prioritize “Interesting” Stepping Stones

Shift accountability from solely metric-driven progress to recognizing and rewarding ‘interesting’ stepping stones, even if they are not objectively detectable by conventional assessment techniques, as these are the true drivers of innovation.

8. Cultivate Effective Serendipity

Instead of strictly pursuing objectives, actively create situations and environments that set you up for effective serendipity, as many important discoveries and innovations arise unexpectedly.

9. Disseminate Interesting Discoveries

Establish systems and cultures that facilitate the dissemination of interesting discoveries and effective practices throughout relevant social networks to foster widespread improvement and innovation.

10. Empower Individual Peer Judgment

Foster a peer review culture that disentangles individual judgment from monolithic global views, allowing experts to express unique assessments, follow up on potential, and build upon ideas that others might not immediately recognize as valuable.

11. Avoid “Too Much Sense” Ideas

When seeking revolutionary outcomes, be wary of ideas that ‘make too much sense’ because truly transformative stepping stones are often counterintuitive and appear strange or nonsensical at first, making them less likely to be pursued by others.

12. Pursue Unpredictable Paths

Intentionally deviate from predictable paths or what others expect you to do next, as predictable actions are likely to be pursued by others, while unpredictable ones offer opportunities for novel and truly innovative contributions.

13. Embrace Novelty and Deviation

Actively seek novelty by pursuing ideas and paths that haven’t been tried before and fundamentally differ from past approaches, as this deviation from the familiar is a core component of interestingness and drives innovation.

14. Continuously Deviate from Comfort

To maintain innovation, intentionally expend energy to deviate from comfortable, successful, and predictable paths, even if it’s scary, as sticking to what you’re known for can lead to a rut and reduce your innovative output over time.

15. Follow True Stepping-Stone Visionaries

Distinguish between speculative ‘visionaries’ who set ambitious goals without knowing the path, and true visionaries who recognize when the necessary ‘stepping stones’ and technologies have genuinely snapped into place, as the latter are the ones to follow for actual progress.

16. Focus on Interesting Explorations

Engage in explorations within a domain because they are ‘interesting,’ even if the grandiose objective is unrealistic, as this process unearths valuable ‘stepping stones’ that can lead to other useful and innovative side effects.

17. Strategically Tolerate Risk

Acknowledge that while some risks are too high (e.g., national economy), many domains, like scientific research, have ample room for risk-taking and experimentation; carefully assess tolerable risk levels for each specific system.

18. Reform Innovation-Focused Departments

Critically examine and reform departments explicitly tasked with innovation within organizations, as they often operate with objective-driven methods that are counterproductive and force innovators to leave to pursue their ideas.

19. Advocate for Principled Innovation

Use well-founded arguments (like those in the book) to advocate for a principled approach to innovation within your organization, even if it challenges the prevailing objective-driven culture, to empower change without appearing ‘wacky.’

20. Distinguish Objective Types

Understand that objectives are good when modest (achievable, done many times) but problematic when ambitious (don’t know how to do), and apply critiques primarily to the latter.

You might like assessment and accountability and objectives and metrics because they make you feel better because it feels like we're making sure that nothing bad will happen. But you have to recognize it's just a security blanket. It doesn't work.

Ken Stanley

If the actual stepping stones that lead to where we want to go are counterintuitive, in other words, they're not what you would expect, then the metrics are useless.

Ken Stanley

Interestingness is the magic sauce. And that's what I think humans are really good at.

Ken Stanley

If you give me something that makes a lot of sense, I basically think, well, someone's going to follow it. It's guaranteed. It makes sense, but it's not exciting enough for me because like, I know it's going to get followed.

Ken Stanley

It's not like we can just fully critique somebody like that and like dismiss them, but they're not doing that. So I think to be fair, like in terms of who you want to lionize, I think you have to be fair, like to, to at least acknowledge that like, that's not what they're actually doing. They're not just saying like, this is culturally like a good place for us to be interested. They're making claims that are not really well-founded.

Ken Stanley