#169 - Katherine Eban: COVID-19 Lab Leak: Examining all sides of the debate and discussing barriers to a full investigation
Investigative journalist Katherine Eban joins Peter Attia to dissect the origins of COVID-19, examining both zoonotic and lab leak theories. They discuss the history of lab escapes, controversies surrounding gain-of-function research, and the significant challenges to a full investigation due to China's lack of transparency.
Deep Dive Analysis
15 Topic Outline
Introduction to the COVID-19 Origin Controversy
Precedent for Viruses Leaking from Laboratories
Understanding Zoonotic Transmission and Intermediary Hosts
The 2012 Yunnan Mine Shaft Incident and RATG-13
Lack of Transparency from Chinese Government and WIV Database
Defining and Debating Gain-of-Function Research
US Government Funding of Gain-of-Function Research in China
The Role of EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak
Early Politicization and Censorship of Lab Leak Theory
Chinese Obstruction of Early Investigations and Record Destruction
The Significance of the Furin Cleavage Site in SARS-CoV-2
Arguments Favoring a Zoonotic Origin
Arguments Favoring a Lab Origin
Challenges and Outlook for a Definitive Investigation
Impact of the Controversy on Gain-of-Function Research
5 Key Concepts
Lab Leak Theory
This theory suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 virus escaped from a laboratory. It encompasses a range of possibilities, from an infected field researcher bringing a natural sample back to the lab, to a genetically modified strain leaking from an experiment designed to make viruses more infectious.
Zoonotic Origin
This refers to the theory that a virus naturally spread from an animal to a human, potentially through an intermediary animal host. This is the presumed origin for many past viruses like SARS-CoV-1 and MERS.
Gain-of-Function Research
This type of research involves manipulating viruses to test whether they can become more infectious or gain new attributes they don't possess in nature. Proponents argue it helps gauge risk and develop vaccines, while critics warn of the dangers of unleashing deadly pathogens.
Furin Cleavage Site
A specific sequence in the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome that some virologists believe is a 'signature' of genetic editing, potentially making the virus more infectious to humans. However, others argue such sites can also be found in naturally occurring sequences.
EcoHealth Alliance
A nonprofit organization led by zoologist Peter Daszak, with the goal of mapping natural world viruses to preserve wild spaces and prevent outbreaks. It acted as an intermediary, receiving U.S. government grants and providing subgrants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology for coronavirus research.
7 Questions Answered
There is a significant precedent for lab escapes, including a serious anthrax leak in the Soviet Union and at least four SARS lab escapes since the 2002 SARS epidemic. The 1977 Russian flu (H1N1) is also believed to have escaped from a lab.
The closest known relative is a strain called RATG-13, found in an abandoned mineshaft in Yunnan province in 2013, which is about 96.2% identical to SARS-CoV-2.
Six miners cleaning bat guano in the mine shaft became gravely ill with pneumonia-like symptoms almost identical to COVID-19, and three of them died. This incident was never reported to the World Health Organization by Chinese authorities.
While U.S. government agencies like NIH and DOD did not directly fund the Wuhan Institute of Virology, they provided grants to an intermediary nonprofit called EcoHealth Alliance, which then gave subgrants to the WIV for research, including gain-of-function studies.
The Chinese government has enforced a fundamental lack of transparency, including taking a crucial virus database offline, refusing access to experts, and destroying records. This, combined with early politicization of the lab leak theory, has severely hampered a full forensic investigation.
The strongest argument is the precedent of previous SARS outbreaks (SARS-CoV-1 and MERS) having zoonotic origins. However, unlike previous outbreaks, no host or intermediary animal for SARS-CoV-2 has been identified despite extensive searching.
Arguments include the virus's immediate readiness to infect humans without initial wide-ranging mutations (suggesting it was 'primed'), the proximity of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (which housed vast bat samples and conducted aggressive gain-of-function research) to the outbreak's epicenter, and the known practice of conducting dangerous research in lower-containment BSL-2 labs.
11 Actionable Insights
1. Critically Evaluate Scientific Statements
Always scrutinize scientific statements, especially those that aggressively dismiss alternative hypotheses, by checking for conflicts of interest among the authors and distinguishing between peer-reviewed research and opinion pieces. The Lancet statement on COVID-19 origins, orchestrated by someone with direct financial ties to the research in question, serves as a critical example of why this is important.
2. Demand Comprehensive Investigations
Advocate for and support comprehensive, conflict-free forensic investigations for major public health events. The lack of a thorough, unbiased investigation into COVID-19’s origins, despite ‘smoke coming out of a lot of windows,’ highlights the necessity of pursuing all hypotheses equally until real evidence is found.
3. Scrutinize Government Funding & Transparency
Be vigilant about government statements and funding pathways related to controversial scientific research, particularly when transparency is lacking or indirect funding mechanisms are used. The U.S. government’s indirect funding of the Wuhan Institute of Virology via EcoHealth Alliance, coupled with unreleased progress reports, demonstrates the need for public oversight.
4. Understand Gain-of-Function Risks
Recognize the inherent controversy and significant risks associated with gain-of-function research, which aims to make pathogens more infectious to study them. This type of research, described as ’looking for a gas leak with a lighted match,’ carries the potential to unleash deadly pathogens that cannot be controlled.
5. Acknowledge Lab Leak Precedent
Be aware of the historical precedent for lab leaks of dangerous pathogens, as they are not uncommon. Multiple SARS lab escapes and the 1977 Russian flu incident illustrate that viruses can and do escape from research facilities, making a lab origin a plausible scenario for new outbreaks.
6. Question Outbreak Explanations
Critically question explanations for outbreaks that contradict ecological and epidemiological patterns. The mystery surrounding COVID-19’s origin in Wuhan during winter, without a clear animal source in a market that didn’t sell bats, should prompt deeper investigation rather than immediate dismissal of alternative theories.
7. Prioritize Incompetence Over Conspiracy
When evaluating complex events, adopt the investigative journalism principle: ’never assume conspiracy when incompetence is an option.’ This mindset helps in focusing on more probable explanations like human error or procedural shortcuts, which can have significant consequences.
8. Re-evaluate High-Risk Research Benefits
Periodically re-evaluate the cost-benefit of high-risk scientific research, such as aggressive viral mapping and manipulation. If millions are spent on research meant to prevent outbreaks, but a major pandemic still occurs, the efficacy and justification for continuing such research should be critically assessed.
9. Understand Authoritarian Obstruction
Recognize that authoritarian governments may obstruct investigations and destroy evidence related to public health events. China’s refusal to allow expert teams, destruction of records, and blocking access to key sites severely hindered the ability to determine COVID-19’s origin.
10. Be Critical of Information Suppression
Maintain skepticism towards information suppression or labeling of certain discussions as ‘conspiracy theories’ on social media or in the press. Initial dismissals of the lab leak hypothesis, later reversed by some platforms and media outlets, demonstrate how initial narratives can be influenced and later challenged.
11. Consider Asymptomatic Transmission’s Impact
Understand that asymptomatic transmission can significantly obscure the true origin and timeline of an outbreak. The possibility of an earlier, undetected spread of SARS-CoV-2 due to asymptomatic cases makes pinpointing an exact initial date and location more challenging.
5 Key Quotes
It's like looking for a gas leak with a lighted match.
Katherine Eban
Neither NIH nor NIAID have ever approved any grant that would have supported gain of function research on coronaviruses that would have increased their transmissibility or lethality for humans.
Francis Collins
If it turns out to have been a lab leak, it could do to the field of virology what Chernobyl did to the world of nuclear science research, right? Transform the whole thing, shutdowns, restrictions, moratoriums.
Katherine Eban
Why do you take a hypothesis off the table without evidence? If you're having an investigation, don't you pursue all hypotheses in an equal fashion until you have real evidence?
Katherine Eban
Regardless of whether there is life beyond earth, the answer to that didn't force you to stay inside for a year and not see friends and family.
Katherine Eban