#73 - AMA #9: NAD & metformin, fat-burning zone, creatine, estrogenization of men, emergency kit for cold & flu, and more
In this AMA episode, host Peter Attia and Bob Kaplan discuss Peter's near-involvement with Theranos, the "estrogenation of men," hunting trip takeaways, book recommendations, advice for his younger self, emergency sickness protocols, and thoughts on NAD precursors, metformin, "fat burning" zones, and creatine.
Deep Dive Analysis
2 Topic Outline
Peter Attia's Near-Miss with Theranos
Reflecting on Theranos and Hindsight Bias
2 Key Concepts
Cognitive Dissonance
This refers to the mental discomfort experienced by a person who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values, or is confronted by new information that conflicts with existing beliefs. In the context of Elizabeth Holmes, it describes the state of knowing her world was about to get 'messy' while still being the headliner of a major event, suggesting she might have believed her lies were for a greater good.
Hindsight Bias
This is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it. It explains why people might wonder how others involved with Theranos could have been 'so foolish' after the fraud was exposed, when at the time, the situation was not clear.
3 Questions Answered
Peter Attia was approached in 2006 to potentially join Theranos as Chief Medical Officer but declined the offer due to concerns about an investor, satisfaction with his current job, and skepticism about the medical utility of their technology.
He decided against joining for three main reasons: a trusted contact had negative feedback about one of their investors, he was very happy with his work at McKinsey, and he wasn't convinced the technology could test anything clinically interesting from a drop of blood.
No, Peter Attia never suspected fraud; he simply found the business concept of point-of-care testing for basic labs to be medically uninteresting and not impactful enough to 'move the needle' in clinical medicine.
13 Actionable Insights
1. Evaluate Startup Opportunities Critically
When considering joining a startup, perform thorough due diligence on investors and trust feedback from your network, as these factors are crucial.
2. Maintain High Job Hurdle Rate
If you love your current job, set a very high ‘hurdle rate’ for any new opportunity, meaning it must be significantly better to warrant leaving.
3. Apply Critical Thinking to Technology
Use your domain expertise and critical thinking to evaluate new technologies and claims, especially if details are secretive or the underlying science seems implausible.
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10. Be Aware of Hindsight Bias
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3 Key Quotes
I don't think Hitler believed he was doing anything wrong either. So the fact that you don't believe you're doing something wrong doesn't in any way absolve you of the responsibility of what you've done.
Peter Attia
It's almost upsetting how good looking he is because you sort of think person's not supposed to be that good looking.
Peter Attia
My opposition to it was I never suspected there was fraud going on. I just thought it was the world's most uninteresting business in the history of civilization.
Peter Attia